Some Questions ahead of the 3rd test

Questions leading into the third test

1. Who will actually be fit to play for New Zealand?

There is talk that Kane Williamson, Henry Nicholls and Mitchell Santner were all too sick to get out of bed yesterday, and all are unlikely to play. Trent Boult and Lockie Ferguson have already gone home. Glenn Phillips has been called in as a late replacement, meaning that there is a chance that New Zealand will end up playing four wicket keepers, and recalling Jeet Raval to the squad simply due to lack of other options. If those 3 are all out of contention, then New Zealand’s top 7 is likely to include Raval, Tom Latham, Tom Blundell, Ross Taylor, Phillips, BJ Watling and Colin de Grandhomme.

2. Will either side opt for two spinners, and if so, who will make way?

The Sydney Cricket Ground has a reputation as a spinners track, and both teams have added an extra spinner into their squad. If Australia opt for Mitchell Swepson, then they are likely to end up either dropping a batsman, or going in with only two pace bowlers and giving the 3rd seamer role to Matthew Wade. Wade’s over against New Zealand in Melbourne was considerably less threatening than his spell in Perth, suggesting that he is less effective with the red ball than the pink one. This suggests that going with two spinners is a highly risky move for them.

Another option could be to select Michael Nesser as an all rounder to replace Wade in the side, allowing more cover for the extra spinner, but lengthening the tail considerably. This is unlikely to happen, as Australia have traditionally shied away from picking five bowlers in test sides, and Tim Paine has made it clear that he does not favour changing the formula too much.

New Zealand have taken Todd Astle on a holiday so far, not playing any tests on this tour or in the matches in New Zealand. Will Somerville has been added into the squad, and his familiarity with the conditions and point of difference with his height is likely to make him a tempting option. Somerville is a former Sydney resident, and played for New South Wales for a few years before returning to New Zealand to try to play international cricket. He is close to 2 metres tall, and so created different challenges for batsmen by being able to extract similar bounce to a bowler bowling with loop even while bowling on a flatter trajectory.

Astle provides the advantage of being a competent batsman, so bringing him into the side in place of de Grandhomme is a possibility. That would allow a 3rd genuine seam bowler into the side. Another option is for Astle and Somerville coming in with Tim Southee and Neil Wagner with de Grandhomme acting as the 3rd seamer.

3. Will the pitch actually turn, or is the spinner’s SCG a bit of a myth?

Over the past 10 years, spin bowlers have bowled over 1000 overs at the SCG, but only picked up 82 wickets at an average of over 50 at the SCG. Pace bowlers have taken 192 wickets at and average just under 35 there. Nathan Lyon has averaged 47 at the ground in that time, and collectively the leg spinners used there have averaged roughly 70. The days of Stuart McGill ripping teams apart on the SCG seem to be long gone.

However, when looking at the way that the series has progressed, Australia might consider favouring spin more. New Zealand’s two standing quick bowlers have not been much less effective than their Australian counterparts. Southee and Wagner have taken 26 wickets at less than 23 runs each, while Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc have taken 19 wickets at just under 18 each. However, Lyon has been much more effective than Santner (10 wickets at 22.7 vs 1 wicket at 250). Giving Lyon slightly more to work with might exaggerate that difference even more.

4. Will New Zealand keep trying to out last Australia with the ball?

New Zealand have had a clear bowling plan in this series. With the new ball: pitch it up, and try to get it to swing occasionally, but mostly bowl a 4th stump line, on a good length. With the older ball, bang it in short of a length. Both tactics have been mostly designed to get the batsmen to play risky shots and get out doing so, rather than trying to actively dismiss the batsmen.

While that tactic has been reasonably successful for Southee and Wagner, it has meant that there has been a lot asked of the other bowlers, and they have not been as successful. Perhaps bowling 1m fuller, and more at the stumps. Cricviz released some interesting data recently that of all batsmen who have faced 500 balls aimed at the stumps since 2006, only Steven Smith averages over 33 against those deliveries, and of players who are still active test batsmen, Virat Kohli has the third best average against balls targeting the stumps of 24.08. That suggests that bowling straighter might be a better tactic. The odd delivery will be hit through the leg side or down the ground, but the approach may well bear more fruit.

The difference in length and line from the Australian bowlers has been clear. They have tended to bowl at the stumps more. Some of that is due to the different styles, but some of it is just that they had different plans, and those plans (especially when a batsman was new to the crease) have been much more effective.

5. Should the match even be going ahead?

Cricket is the job of the players, and of the administrators, but it is still at its heart a game. Is there a point where playing games in the midst of an ongoing natural disaster becomes a little insensitive? Should this match even be going ahead?

The smoke from the New South Wales bushfires has been so thick that the views of mountains in Southern New Zealand (over 2000 km away) has been blocked and some of the New Zealand glaciers have turned brown. In terms of distance, that would be like smoke from a fire in Dubai blocking out the view of the buildings at one end of Marine Drive in Mumbai from the other.

The Remarkables have disappeared. Pics from yesterday and today. 🙁 #AussieSmoke pic.twitter.com/KQjRgwwb5N

— Margie (@Margie186) January 1, 2020

The question has to be asked as to what point is it where player welfare comes to the fore? The atmosphere in Sydney is so polluted from the fires that one lung professor likened breathing it to smoking 40 cigarettes. The PM2.5 reading in some outer suburbs of Sydney was 734. To put that in context the match in Delhi that was called off between India and Sri Lanka had a PM2.5 reading of under 400.

Sport can be important for the morale of people who are experiencing a traumatic event, but there is such a thing as being too soon, and while the bodies of the dead from the fires are still not yet buried it may be too soon to be playing games. Even if the timing is acceptable to the public, is the safety issue to the players too extreme for such triviality.

Statistical preview, World Cup final, New Zealand vs England

Here is a brief statistical preview.

Recent head to head:

In the past 5 years England lead 8-5.
In the past 2 years England lead 6-3.

At Lord's the ball tends to bounce a bit more. As a result it tends to not suit England as much as their other home grounds. It is the only ground that England have a losing record at over the past few years, with 3 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 years.

It is also a ground where scores have been defended quite regularly.

The slope, large straight boundaries and the bounce combine to make a more bowler friendly ground than most in England, but grounds in this world cup have not exactly gone to type.

Adding in times where New Zealand bat first, and where England bowl first, gives the following result:

New Zealand had a clear plan to use the pressure of the situation as a weapon to help them defeat India, and the pressure from playing at home may do the same against England.

The model that I used to build my simulation has England at 69.8%, while New Zealand are at 30.2%. That feels about right too, New Zealand have a realistic chance, but England are certainly favorites.

The bookies have England at 73%, CricViz have England at 68%, New Zealand at 30% and a tie at a fairly high 2%.

The two teams are close enough that nobody can say exactly who will win, but it is a World Cup final - that's exactly how it should be.

Preview - Match 6 - England vs Pakistan - Trent Bridge

England and Pakistan return to the scene of a recent run-fest, but this time there is more on the line.

To say that Trent Bridge tends to be batting friendly is like saying that Elton John tends to play the piano. However, the pitches so far have not exactly been typical of the grounds, and this may prove to be another incident of that.

England start as heavy favourites - Bet365 have them at 82%, Google gives them a 79% chance of winning, and my model gives them 84%. But the favourites don't always win ODI matches.

Here's the historical first innings score chart:

Pakistan have a reputation as an unpredictable team, but the reality is that they are one of the more predictable sides. They very rarely beat teams that are better than them, and very rarely lose to teams that they are better than. England should win this one reasonably comfortably.

Preview - World Cup group match 5 - South Africa vs Bangladesh - The Oval

Today Bangladesh get their campaign underway, and South Africa get a chance to bounce back from their early loss.

This is predicted to be a win for South Africa, but I think the betting market are overstating the difference between the teams. Most of the bookies have an implied chance of winning of about 76% for South Africa, but my early model had them at 67%, and after their loss to England and Bangladesh's recent series win over West Indies (which looks more impressive now that West Indies have turned out to be quite good), the gap has shortened to 66.6% for South Africa vs 33.4% for Bangladesh.

The Oval pitch is one where there has been variety of conditions recently, so it's hard to know what a good score is until both teams have batted. Here's the historical graph:

The numbers have all dropped down by 2 or 3 runs as a result of the last match. 

One thing that does not play to Bangladesh's advantage here is the pitch. This is probably the bounciest pitch in England, and is more like a South African pitch than a typical English pitch. Bangladesh, however, play on probably the lowest, slowest pitches in the world.

If this match was at Taunton or Old Trafford, then Bangladesh may well be favourites. But not at the Oval. I'd expect South Africa to do well here. If they don't, then the semi-finals suddenly look a very long way away indeed.

Preview - World Cup group match 3 - New Zealand vs Sri Lanka

This match is at Sophia Gardens in Cardiff. It's likely to be cool and damp, but with no rain. That's likely to play into New Zealand's hands.

New Zealand are distinct favourites - Bet365 have them at 78%, Google has them at 79%, and my model has New Zealand at 81%. However, none of those are at 100%, and the match isn't played on paper - Sri Lanka are still capable of pulling out a big performance.

Sophia Gardens is an odd shape, similar to Eden Park in Auckland, so it's a shape that New Zealand should be comfortable with. However, New Zealand has a mixed record at the ground - it was host to the match where New Zealand famously lost to Bangladesh in the Champions Trophy. In the one previous match between the two sides there, New Zealand won by 1 wicket, only just managing to win despite bowling Sri Lanka out for 138.

Teams batting first have generally not done well at Sophia Gardens unless they get a very big score. It's likely that both teams will want to chase here.

Again a score of 290 would be below par based on historical data, but ICC events sometimes have the pitches in different conditions to normal matches, so there's a chance that a lower score might still be very competitive.

As with some of the other matches, one of the more interesting things here will be the selections. What combination of players will each team go for?

Whichever way it goes - matches at Cardiff have tended to be interesting, even when the teams have seemed to be mismatched on paper before hand, so this could be the first match that's actually interesting on the field as well as just in the lead up.

Preview - World Cup group match 2 - West Indies vs Pakistan

Today's match is at Trent Bridge, Nottingham.

If any ground in the world has taken over the mantle of "most batting friendly ground in the world" from the Antigua Recreational Ground in St Johns, it's Trent Bridge. The groundsman seems to have taken WG Grace's famous statement "they came to see me bat, not you bowl" to the next level. The pitch seems to have been designed to make batting as easy as possible.

As a result the par score here is quite high.

Score 290 here, and you're on the wrong side of recent history. In order to have a 75% chance of winning after batting first, your team needs to score 349.

If anywhere is going to see 500 achieved, it is likely to be either Nottingham or Southampton (which also has a bowler-hating groundsman).

The regression model that I used in the previous article gives Pakistan a 73% chance of coming out on top in this match. However, the West Indies have been looking better recently than they were a couple of years ago, and Pakistan (conversely) have been looking like they're at a low ebb. As a result, this match feels more like it could go either way.

Pakistan have a habit of lifting their game significantly when they get momentum, and, as a result, have had a very good record recently against all the teams who are not currently ranked in the top five. The West Indies will need to start well to avoid Pakistan getting on a roll. 

This match is an important fixture for both sides, as a loss here will mean that the losing team will need to beat at least two of the top five ranked teams if they are to progress to the semi-finals.

A simulation to see who will win the World Cup

One of the main purposes of statistics is to help inform decisions. Cricket statistics are often used when deciding on selection of players, or (more often) arguments about who is the best at a particular aspect. They can help decide which strategies are best, what an equivalent score is in a reduced match (with a particular case of Duckworth Lewis Stern) or which teams should automatically qualify for the World Cup (David Kendix). They are often also used by bookmakers (both the reputable, legal variety and the more dubious underworld version) to set odds about who is going to win.

I decided to attempt to build a model to calculate the probability of each team winning, based on their previous form. This was going to allow me (hopefully) to predict the probabilities of each outcome of the world cup, by using a simulation. It didn’t prove to be as easy as I had hoped.

My first thought was to look at each team’s net run rate in each match, adjust for home advantage, and then average it out. That seemed sensible, and the first attempt at doing that looked like it would be perfect. Most teams (all except Zimbabwe) had roughly symmetrical net run rates, and they fitted a normal curve really well. The only problem was that Afghanistan was miles ahead of everyone else. The fact that they had mostly played lower quality opponents in the past 4 years meant that they had recorded a lot more convincing wins than anyone else.

This was clearly a problem. India and England both had negative net run rates, while Afghanistan, Bangladesh and West Indies were all expected to win most of their matches.

I then tried a different approach, based off David Kendix’s approach of using each result to adjust a ranking. But rather than having a ranking that was based off wins, I based it off net run rate. So if a team had an expected net run rate of 0.5, and another had an expected net run rate of 0.6, the first team would have an expected net run rate of -0.1 for their match. If they did better than that, they went up, and if they did worse than that, they went down.

However, I found that some results ended up having too much bearing. If I made it sensitive to a change in the results, it ended up changing way too much based off one big loss/win. England dropped almost a whole net run per over based on the series in the West Indies. So this was clearly not a good option.

Next, I decided to try using logistic regression, and seeing how that turned out. Logistic regression is a way of determining probabilities of events happening if there are only two outcomes. To do that, I removed every tie or match with no result, and set to work building the models.

My initial results were exciting. By just using the team, opposition and home/away status, I was able to predict the results of the previous three world cups quite accurately using the data from the preceding 4 years. (I could not go back further than that, as they included teams making their ODI debut, and there was accordingly no data to use to build the model.

The results were really pleasing. I graphed them here, grouped to the nearest 0.2 (ie the point at 0.6 represents all matches that the model gave between 0.5 and 0.7 as the chance for a team to win), compared to the actual result for that match. It seems that they slightly overstate the chance of an upset (possibly due to upsets being more common outside world cups, where players tend to be rested against smaller nations), but overall they were fairly reliable, and (most importantly) the team that the model predicted would win, generally won.

I could then use this to give a ranking of each team that directly related to their likelihood of winning against each other. The model gave everything in relation to Afghanistan, with the being 0, and any number higher than 0 being how much more likely a team was to win against the same opponent as Afghanistan. (Afghanistan was the reference simply because they were first in the alphabet).

This turns out to be fairly close to the ICC rankings. So that was encouraging.

I tried adding a number of things to the model (ground types, continents, interactions, weighting the more recent matches more highly) but the added complexity did not result in better predictions when I tested them, so I stuck to a fairly simple model, only really controlling for home advantage.

Next I applied the probabilities to every match and found the probabilities of each team making the semi-finals.

The next step was to then extend the simulation past the group stage, and find the winner.

After running through the simulation a few more times, I came out with this:

A couple of points to remember here: every simulation is an estimate. The model is almost certainly going to estimate the probabilities incorrectly, but it will get them close, and they will be close enough to give a good estimate of the actual final probabilities. It is also likely to overstate Bangladesh’s ability due to their incredible home record; overstate Pakistan’s ability as a lot of neutral matches for them they have had a degree of home advantage in UAE; and understate West Indies, due to them having not played their best players in a lot of matches in the past 4 years. But these are not likely to make a massive difference to the semi-finalist predictions.

Given this, I’d suggest that if you are wanting to bet on the winner of the world cup, these are the odds that I would consider fair for each team:

I will try to update these probabilities periodically throughout the world cup, and report on their accuracy.

Historical statistical preview of the Second Test, Pakistan vs NZ

I've decided to put together a short summary of some of the historical trends at Dubai, before this match.

First, the probability of different results based on first innings scores. This suggests that a score of 300 is roughly the point where a team is more likely to win than lose, while the 50% winning score is roughly 370.

Preview 2nd Test, Pakistan vs New Zealand, Dubai 2014

After the towelling that New Zealand got in the first test, they have said exactly the sort of things that you would expect them to say. "It's about changing our mindset" "We need to win the toss and bat" "We've identified the areas that we need to improve." etc. The interesting question is more "are they good enough to adapt?"

Mark Richardson commented on the radio that New Zealand are a good team, but not good enough that they won't have occasional matches where they get blown away.

The pitch in Dubai is actually quite different to Sharjah. Teams don't often put up big scores batting first here. There's life for the seamers early on, and some reward if a bowler bends his back, but ultimately this is a ground that suits spin.

The most intriguing battle for me will be McCullum vs Zulfiqar. The other thing I'll be looking at will be the flight that the NZ spinners bowl with. If they can bowl flatter and faster without losing their rhythm they could be a real handful.

Overall, this is shaping up as another intriguing test.

Preview ODI 3, New Zealand vs South Africa, Seddon PArk, 2014

NZ will need to overcome ring rust today

One of the reasons Mike Tyson was such a champion boxer was that in his early days he had fantastic defence. As a result, he was able to fight every 6 weeks rather than every 3 months (like most heavyweight boxers do) because he wasn't getting hurt in the ring. Fighting so regularly meant that he never got "ring rust." Ring rust is a condition where boxers miss out on the little details that make a big difference. An uppercut that connects with the right timing, on the right part of the jaw, knocks someone out. An upper cut that lands slightly to the left or the right of that, or arrives 1/4 of a second later hurts the opponent, but doesn't finish the fight.

It doesn't matter how much you spar in the gym, or hit bags, you can only fix ring rust by time in the ring.  Often when you watch a boxing match between two top fighters, the first 2 rounds tell you very little about the way that the rest of the match will go, they only tell you who is the rustiest.

In this series, New Zealand have been rusty. Very rusty. The bowlers have not bowled the right lengths consistently. The fielder have missed at least 4 catches and 3 run outs. The batsmen have hit the ball to fielders rather than into gaps, and thrown away good starts.

South Africa, on the other hand, were playing 5 weeks ago. They look refreshed and eager. The bowlers have been (generally) hitting good lengths, and the batsmen have (generally) made the most of the starts when they have go them.

It's hard to suggest anything different is going to happen in Hamilton today. Amla had two lives before he got to 20, then he cashed in. His technique looks totally unsuited to opening the batting in New Zealand conditions (especially pre-Christmas), but his hand-eye co-ordination is so good that he dominates when he gets the chance. If New Zealand give him more opportunities through poor fielding, then he will (in all likelihood) do exactly the same in Hamilton.

Hamilton tends to be a difficult place to start batting. Matthew Hayden described it as the hardest place in the world to see the ball. However, he also carried his bat for 181 in a match there.

In the last 10 years about 59% of top order innings in Hamilton have scored 25 or less runs. That's on a par with the overall average (61%) but the interesting thing is that in the innings where a batsman reaches 25, they go on to do better. The overall average is 52.22 (so they get another 27.2 once they get to 25). The average in Hamilton is 58.35 (an extra 33.35). This is actually a very significant difference. Of the 132 grounds that have hosted ODI's in the past 10 years, only 5 have had more then 5 games and a higher average once a player gets to 25.

As a result, making the most of early chances is vital. It's where New Zealand's rustiness could come back to haunt them. Although, there is one thing that will work in their favour: the weather.

It is likely to rain in Hamilton today. As one of only two inland cities in New Zealand, it's one of the easiest places to forecast the weather for. The game is likely to get a small shower during the first innings, a small shower near the start of the second innings, and then be curtailed by rain. With the overhead conditions, both captains will probably want to bowl first, and that is likely to be an advantage. However, the rain is likely to mean that batsmen will have to re-start their innings after they get started, so the normal Hamilton pattern might not play ball.

Betting tips.

If I had $50 to bet on this match, here's where it would go:

1. $10 on NZ to win at $2.45

It's almost always a better idea to bowl first in an ODI, especially when there's a breeze and cloud cover. This is simply because of winning the toss

2. 2 x $10 Over on any South African batsman that gets to 25.

They all have such good hand eye co-ordination that once they get to 25, they are likely to score more than 60. Watch the live betting, and go over whatever line the TAB offer.

3. 2 x $10 Under for any New Zealand batsman that gets to 25.

They are all looking so rusty, that it feels likely that they will throw it away. Other than Luke Ronchi.

(All odds accurate at time of writing from the NZ TAB)

Quick preview of NZ Eng match in Dunedin

I thought I'd missed the boat to do a preview of this match, but the rain has come to my rescue.

Here are a few thoughts about a couple of the match-ups I'll be looking forward to.

1. James Anderson vs Peter Fulton.

	Early in Fulton's career he got out a lot to the ball leaving the bat. He had a tendency to chase it, and as a result often ended up getting out. Since he was dropped from the NZ team he has made a real effort to focus on this, and in looking through his innings over the last couple of years, I could only find 2 where he had been dismissed to this type of delivery.
	However whenever a batsman makes a change to their technique there is always a question as to what new weakness it will open up. If he is looking for the one going away, then Anderson's ability to move the ball back in might be something that causes him some problems.

2. Steven Finn & Stuart Broad vs Hamish Rutherford.

There was an obvious plan in Queenstown to try and bounce Rutherford out. Finn and Broad both seem to have a tendency to try the short ball anyway, so if they sense blood they may be prone to giving Rutherford a real working over. If Rutherford is up to it, however this could give him something to attack, especially if they stray outside off, as he is very quick on the cut shot.

3. Kane Williamson vs Kane Williamson.

Can the boy wonder keep his game simple enough to play one of the innings that he's shown us previously he is capable of? Or will he get over-complicated in his approach and find another new way to get out.

4. Joe Root vs Ross Taylor.

There seems to be a theory that Ross Taylor is weak outside the off stump to off spinners. As a result Jayawardene had offies bowling outside off to him, and left a big gap for him to cut. Taylor left or defended the ball about 40 times. It will be interesting to see if Cook replicates this tactic. The extra bounce on the NZ wickets would normally mean that this wouldn't be such a good tactic, but given the instructions that the groundsman seems to have been given by the NZ camp this might be quite effective.

5. Brendon McCullum vs the media.

	McCullum is walking a very tight line in terms of public perception. He's played some outstanding cricket on this tour, and yet people still somehow blame him for Ross Taylor no longer being captain. (They tend to ignore the fact that Taylor wasn't dropped as test captain, but instead chose to step down).
	Even before that he was constantly under pressure. If he played his natural game (where he was generally much more successful) he was described as arrogant and irresponsible. If he played more conservatively (where he often was less successful) he was described as flaky, and not having the right temperament for test cricket. When he scores a hundred it's described as lucky, if he gets a fifty he gets criticized for not going on, and if he gets out for less than that there are calls for his head. The only way for him to win over the public is for him to play a series of outstanding innings that lead the team to victory. Perhaps if he gets his series average over 150 people might start to appreciate his contribution.

6. Monty Panesar vs Brendon McCullum.

Monty has dismissed McCullum a lot of times. In the last double-header series Panesar got McCullum 6 times. In fact, most left-armers who have bowled to McCullum have dismissed him a lot of times. Almost a quarter of his dismissals have been to left-arm spin, and they have often got him out when he was well set. Panesar will be relishing the opportunity to resume this particular battle.

7. BJ Watling vs James Anderson.

	Watling dominated the 2nd string bowlers in the NZ XI match in Queenstown. He scored 66* and 89* and hardly looked troubled. Since he's put the gloves on his record is remarkable. He's scored more runs in his 5 test innings with the gloves than in the 14 previous without them. While 5 innings is hardly statistically significant, I was privileged enough to watch most of them live, and he was batting very, very well.
	However in the ODI matches he came up against James Anderson, and looked significantly less assured. He faced 24 balls, scored 8 runs and was dismissed twice. The winner of that battle may well be decisive in the outcome of the match.

8. Trent Boult vs Alistair Cook.

Throughout Cook's career he has had a tendency to get out early to left arm swing bowlers. So far in Trent Boult's career he has often dismissed the most important batsman in the opposition team (in 10 tests his victims include Hussey, Amla, Kallis, Sangakkara, Tendulkar, Jayawardene and Gayle). Particularly if the ball is swinging, the Cook/Boult battle could be intriguing.

9. Tim Southee vs Nick Compton.

Compton seems to have an issue against the short pitched ball, and while Tim Southee is not express, he does have the ability to bowl a surprisingly quick bouncer. He managed to dismiss a few English batsmen with it in the Eden Park ODI match, and Compton might find himself on the end of a little chin music from Southee in this test.

10. Bruce Martin vs Kevin Pietersen.

Just like the battle between McCullum and Panesar, Pietersen has a history of getting out to left arm spin, and Bruce Martin will know that. However KP likes to dominate, and Martin has a tendency to be quite expensive, so there may be some fireworks if they get to face each other.

11. Joe Root vs Joe Root.

Root has only been dismissed once in the internationals in this tour. However he is likely to want to hold himself back a bit in the test matches. He took the foot off the accelerator in the Eden Park ODI, and immediately started to look a little more vulnerable. Good attacking players often do worse when they try to play a defensive game. How Root finds the balance between attack and defense could be vital to his success at this form of the game.

12. Neil Wagner vs Matt Prior.

	Prior has a good record against left-arm pace bowlers, but he has shown a tendency to get out to bowlers who mix their pace up well. Wagner has dropped his pace a little in search of more swing, and since doing that has started to rediscover his form. He is still capable, however, of the odd ball that screams through as well as having a reasonable slower ball.
	The thing that will work in Prior's favour is that his new technique is designed for pitches with less bounce, and the Dunedin wicket is likely to keep a bit low. If it starts to go up and down a bit, then Wagner might be the one with the weapons to dismiss Prior.

There are bound to be other battles arising during the match, but these 12 will be some I'm watching for.

Here's a good preview (from before the toss) with a couple of the cricket writers from the NZ Herald. I got to spend a bit of time with David Leggat while in South Africa, and was quite impressed with his ability to read the game.

Questions for New Zealand in Port Elizabeth

A view of Port Elizabeth from Summerstrand beach

Heading into the second test the Black Caps need to take a leaf out of Graeme Smith’s book.

In the press conference after the first match, he was asked about the mental toughness of the South African team. He commented that they had come though the hard times, and built up resilience. It was through the hard times that learned how to take advantage of opportunities when they arose.

Their win in Perth was, in some ways, made possible because of the hard times in Brisbane and Adelaide. But it was also possible because the players had built up a large reserve of experience of finding a way to hold on through the hard times.

In the first test New Zealand were put through some tough times but were found wanting. They were asked questions that they had no answers to.

The first question was asked by Vernon Philander, who bowled a sensational spell. Some of the deliveries that the batsmen got from him were almost unplayable. However they were unplayable largely because the batsmen were neither forward nor back and as a result allowed him to bowl to them. This might have been understandable if they had learned to play their cricket in somewhere like India, where playing on a green wicket is foreign, but these players have almost all grown up in New Zealand, where playing on a pre-Christmas wicket is something that most batsmen have to do every year.

The second question was caused by the bounce. When James Franklin managed to hit Alviro Petersen on the hand with one that got up it was clear that this was a particularly bouncy pitch. It was even more evident when Steyn and Morkel were putting the ball up at rib height for the New Zealand tail-enders. Most of the New Zealand batsmen didn’t get the opportunity to answer that question in the first innings, but in the second innings it was asked again, and they were generally found wanting again. While they managed to not get out to too many short balls they struggled to score and generally survived more by good fortune than good management.

The third question was how they would reply to being put under so much pressure from the scoreboard. When Doug Bracewell picked up Graeme Smith in the second over, it looked like they were going to respond well, but after lunch they looked like a defeated team. While that was understandable in one respect, the South Africans still needed to bat on the pitch, and gifting them easy runs through poor fielding and loose bowling was not the correct response. There was sufficient life in the pitch that good bowling and fielding would have caused problems for the South African batsmen.

The fourth question was would they learn from the first innings. The answer to that was somewhat equivocal. The batsmen used the crease well against Philander. Guptill tried to turn the strike over by hitting the ball squarer, playing the right shot to the right ball, but just executing incorrectly. However most of the batsmen struggled to score off the back foot. Wattling, Flynn and Franklin all showed admirable patience, but failed to take advantage of a number of scoring opportunities, and so allowed the bowlers to implement plans.

The second test is at St Georges Park a ground that has traditionally been a lot slower and does a lot less off the seam than Newlands but it also traditionally swings more. So now some new questions await the New Zealand team. How do they recover from the psychological disaster of Newlands? How will the bowlers respond to a slower pitch with very little likely to be on offer? Will the batsman do as badly against swing as they did against seam movement?

There are also more specific questions:

• Can Guptill find a way to rotate the strike?
• Will McCullum bat as responsibly on a pitch that’s slower?
• Will Williamson, Flynn and/or Franklin find a way to score as well as occupying the crease?
• Will Brownlie adapt to a slower pitch, where he can’t use the pace of the ball as easily?
• Will Wattling recover his form that he has previously shown on slow tracks?
• Will Bracewell find a way to get out the better batsmen without getting much assistance from the pitch?
• If he plays, will Patel find a way to take wickets as well as containing the batsmen?
• If Bruce Martin plays instead, will he be able to cut out the one bad ball an over that he tends to bowl?
• Will Trent Boult be able to bowl in his first spell as well as he bowled in his third spell at Newlands, and will he be able to dislodge the tail-enders as well as the quality batsmen?
• If Chris Martin plays, will he be able to find the length again that has given him so much success against left-handers in the past?
• If Neil Wagner plays, does he have the weapons to dislodge quality batsmen who are not frightened by his pace?
• If Mitchell McClenaghan plays can he bowl with pace and accuracy for more than 3 or 4 overs?

The New Zealand team certainly went through tough times in Newlands. They now need to show that they have learned from that, and can answer the new questions that this match will ask. Until the Black Caps get on the pitch it’s hard to know what answers they have, and if those answers are going to be sufficient.

A look at the St George's Park match

The second match between New Zealand and South Africa is at St George's Park in Port Elizabeth. I thought it would be interesting to have a look at some of the statistics at this ground, and see if we can use it to make some predictions about the up-coming match.

The first thing I looked at was the players who had succeeded at this ground recently. No test cricket has been played here in the past 5 years, so I had to look back a bit further. I found the top 15 run scorers at the ground, and then looked at the ground-by-ground averages of those players, to see which grounds they scored similarly well at. The grounds that came out the same were: Bangabandhu National Stadium, Dhaka; Eden Gardens, Kolkata; Chepauk, Chennai; Basin Reserve, Wellington; McLean Park, Napier; Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore; Antigua Recreation Ground, St John's, Antigua; Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua.

Interestingly there were two grounds in New Zealand but none in South Africa

So I then looked at the averages of the New Zealand and South African batsmen at those grounds.

Name	Matches	Runs	Average
AN Petersen (SA)	2	316	79
HM Amla (SA)	5	593	74.12
BJ Watling (NZ)	3	213	71
RJ Peterson (SA)	1	61	61
GC Smith (SA)	9	836	55.73
JH Kallis (SA)	9	655	43.66
BB McCullum (NZ)	21	1319	41.21

This ground may well be more to New Zealand's liking than Newlands (just as Hobart and P.Sara were in the last 14 months)

Adding to this is that it is a coastal ground, and the match is being played near a new moon, so there may be extra assistance for the swing bowlers in the afternoon (high tide is about 4pm, and is a particularly high tide. (I am aware that some people think that the tidal flow affecting swing bowling is an old wives tale, but my experience is that the ball does swing more at high tide, if there is a significant tidal flow - PE has a similar tidal flow to Hobart, so it is likely to have a similar effect)

Another big factor will be the lack of Philander. While they only played two matches without him in the last two years, his absence was keenly felt, and South Africa lost one match (against Sri Lanka) and should have lost the other (against Australia at Adelaide). He provides such balance to the bowling attack that he will be sorely missed.

Applying the same method to the bowlers as the batsmen gets this table:

Name	Matches	Wickets	Average
RJ Peterson (SA)	1	5	13.6
VD Philander (SA)	1	6	18.33
TA Boult (NZ)	1	2	19.5
MJ Guptill (NZ)	9	3	25
CS Martin (NZ)	22	86	31.13
DAJ Bracewell (NZ)	3	10	31.2
M Morkel (SA)	3	8	33.5
KS Williamson (NZ)	4	3	41.33
DW Steyn (SA)	4	9	43.22

The stand out there is Chris Martin. While he's unlikely to play in this match, his experience on this sort of slow wicket may prove to be vital.

Preview West Indies v New Zealand in Lauderhill

I feels odd to be talking about a match in USA. Despite the fact that USA is actually a much bigger cricket audience than people realise, it still is not known for cricket. But for the second time in the last 2 years, New Zealand are heading to Lauderhill to play a couple of T20 matches. This time the opponent is the West Indies.

The last series was played in particularly benign conditions. There was nothing in the pitch for either the bowlers or the batsmen, and as a result the scoring was at or under 6 an over for every innings in the series.

There has been a lot of work at the Central Broward Regional Park Stadium, and it looks amazing on Google maps, but preparing cricket pitches is a dark art, and not one that is particularly easy. If they manage to get a good pitch in only the 3rd and 4th real match there it will be quite an accomplishment.

The headlines of this tour will all be about the likes of Narine, Gayle, Pollard, Guptil, Taylor and Southee. However given that it is quite likely to be low and slow, the match is likely to be decided by the skiddy spin bowlers and crafty medium pacers. The players who I'm going to be expecting to play a big role are Marlon Samuels, Nathan McCullum, Jacob Oram and Darren Sammy.

Making the ball arrive at a different time to what the batsman expects is the key to this sort of pitch, and these 4 bowlers are all very good at that. All have a good recent record with the ball too.

Bowling over the last 2 years in T20I:

Bowler	Matches	Wickets	Average	Economy
MN Samuels	7	6	8.66	5.37
NL McCullum	10	13	13.69	6.59
DJG Sammy	8	6	26.00	7.03
JDP Oram	2	2	26.00	7.42

The other bowler that I look forward to watching is Roneel Hira. Probably my favourite player who is currently playing, Hira is a heady bowler, dynamite fielder and effective batsman. He had a great HRV Cup in the New Zealand domestic season, and he will need to really step up in this series as Daniel Vettori has made himself available for T20's again, and he needs to show that he offers enough for the selectors to be prepared to run two left arm orthodox bowlers.

The other one that I am interested to see is Samuel Badree. I watched him bowl for Trinidad and Tobago, and he looked like he was quite tricky. On a slow pitch he could be a difficult prospect also.

So those are a couple of things for those of you watching this match to look out for. Hopefully it will be a pitch that provides plenty for both bat and ball. If it does this could be a fantastic series, but either way both teams are an interesting mix of crafty cricketers and outstanding athletes that could make this an absorbing match even on a bad pitch.

Preview NZ SA 3rd Test Wellington 11/12

It's not often that a third test is as much of a mystery as this one. New Zealand have made large changes to their lineup, changing both the opening batting combination, and also (potentially) the balance of the side. South Africa look solid, and have been a class above New Zealand, but there are still some questions.

The Basin Reserve often thrown up interesting events. It's often a place where the balance switches between batting and bowling teams throughout the day (for more info, see Batting against New Zealand at the Basin Reserve

Going on that previous information, I'd suggest that this could actually be the best test for New Zealand to abandon their 4 bowler, 1 all rounder policy (which I am generally in favour of) and return to a 3 bowler, 1 all rounder line-up.

It's really a horrible test for Flynn to make his come back in, particularly if he is playing as an opener. He has been in good form, but form means little early in the day in Wellington on a green pitch.

The players that tend to do best in Wellington are the players who come in to bat in the afternoon, when the bowlers are tired from running into the wind. As a result if I was going to bet on this match I'd look at batsmen like Jacques Rudolph, Daniel Vettori and Dean Brownlie to be the top scorers. It's also good for players who play cross batted shots well, so Van Wyk and Boucher could also do well.

Preview NZ SA 2nd Test Hamilton 11/12

Here are some things to watch for in the 2nd test.

1. The first innings is very important.

In tests at Seddon Park, the team that bats first has only lost once when they have scored more than 300, and has only won once when they have scored less than 300. The first inning is vital in Hamilton. The nature of the ground is that the first hour is very difficult, but it tends to level out. If the batsmen can get through the first couple of hours then they will be able to cash in.

2. The ball swings in the morning

Often the first hour of the day is very difficult for the batsman. The humidity means that the ball swings, and often a number of wickets fall in the first hour. (an hour before play on the first day, there is 90% humidity, and every day is forecast to be similar)

3. Attacking batsmen.

Brendan McCullum and Craig McMillan are amongst the highest run scorers at Hamilton. Despite once describing Hamilton as the hardest place to play in the world, Matthew Hayden had a good record there too. This is a ground that allows the batsmen full value for their shots during the day.

4. Will the pitch break up?

The pitch at Hamilton has been somewhat unpredictable. If there is any hot days then the pitch breaks up very quickly. However there are no hot days forecast, and so it might just get low and slow. The line up that New Zealand choose to take into the match will be likely to be based on what they think the pitch will do.

Some good bets:

McCullum 79& over. He's in good touch, and has a good record at this ground.
Nz to win $5. They probably won't win, but I'd suggest they have about a 30% chance, and $5 is much better than that.

Preview NZ SA 1st Test Dunedin 11/12

It feels like a long time since the last test match between Pakistan and England. There has been a lot of cricket between tests.

The South African tour of New Zealand got off to a positive start for the home nation, but 5 matches in a row to South Africa have changed the momentum somewhat.

Both teams are adding some big names, South Africa bring in Tahir, Philander and Smith. New Zealand bring in Taylor, Vettori and Martin.

Things to look for:

1. Chris Martin vs Smith & Kallis. Martin has a good record against both of South Africa's best batsmen, and the way that umpires are calling LBW's now really plays to his advantage. It will be interesting to see how he goes.

2. Is Ross Taylor fit? He had one warm up match, where he fielded for a day then watched the rain fall before being replaced. He has not faced a delivery in a real match for a couple of months.

3. Tahir vs NZ's bowlers. NZ has often relied on a lot of runs from the tail. Regularly they score more for the last 5 wickets than the first. However traditionally this had not happened when there has been a good spin bowler operating. Lyon ripped through them in Brisbane, and so Tahir should be eagerly awaiting a bowl.

4. Philander playing away from home. Philander has looked amazing in South Africa, and probably the best place for his type of bowling is New Zealand, but how well will he actually go in unfamiliar conditions?

Preview - 3rd Test Pak Eng Dubai 11/12

The third test. A dead rubber, but one with a lot to play for.

Pakistan have the chance to really stamp their authority on England. They are starting to look like they are a team that is capable of reaching the top of world cricket.

England however got in a winning position in the last game, and then dropped it badly. Now they get their chance to get something out of this tour. If England lose this, then They create an opening for South Africa to take over the number 1 spot in the world rankings.

Individual players are also under some pressure. Younis Khan, Andrew Strauss, Eion Morgan, Keven Pietersen and Ian Bell have all yet to make a mark with the bat, and Graeme Swann has mostly been ineffective with the ball.

The pitch sounds interesting, apparently it has a good covering of grass, and so it could provide some early assistance for the English seamers. Ironically the bowler who might be the most important cog in the wheel in this match is Jonathan Trott. His seam-up's may prove to be vital for England.

Betting tips:

Normally my advice is "don't bet on matches involving Pakistan, they are too unpredictable." That advice still holds.

However if you really wanted to put your money somewhere, try Taufeeq Umar under 38.5 at $1.57. He is in average form, there's some grass on the wicket, and Broad and Anderson are great bowlers.

Also England to have a 1st innings lead at $1.90 is not a bad look, given that the best batting conditions are likely to be on days 2 and 3.

Preview - Pak Eng 2nd Test Abu Dhabi 11/12

The first test was a big surprise.

I was honestly surprised by how well Hafeez batted, and how poorly England batted.

The big question now is if it was an aberration or a forming trend. England looked horrible in the ODI matches in India, but they often look horrible in ODI matches. This is because they are an awful ODI team. But perhaps it had something to do with being in Asia.

The English overall record in Asia over the past 5 years looks respectable, about 33. However once you remove Bangladesh from that equation, their average drops to 26.68.

Over the same time Pakistan have averaged 36.

England desperately require their batsmen (who are outstanding players) to make some runs here in Abu Dhabi.

The other big issue is where the wickets will come from. Abu Dhabi has been a graveyard for bowlers. Both spin bowlers and pace bowlers have averaged just over 49 in the 2 tests there. And they haven't been bad bowlers. Steyn 4/138, Herath 3/134, Sami 0/129. It is not a bowlers friend.

The bowlers that have been the most effective here have generally been swing bowlers, so there is some light there for England, but it is a dim glow.

There are a couple of things to look for:

1. Often players perform better in milestone matches. Cook and Strauss are playing their 100th innings together as an opening partnership. They are currently the 4th most prolific partnership, roughly 300 behind Atapatu and Jayasuria, who opened up 118 times. This could be time for a big one from these two.

2. Umar Gul and bad balls getting wickets. Gull managed to pick up 3 wickets off long hops in the 2nd innings. Often bowlers that have a batsman under pressure can bowl a bad delivery and pick up a wicket with it. It will be interesting to see if his wickets are from good deliveries or from bad deliveries after a period of pressure.

3. How will Panesar go? He looked more dangerous than Swann in the warm up matches, and Swann was the pick of the English bowlers in Dubai. This could be Monty's chance to take back his mantle.

4. Jonathan Trott. He will probably be asked to do a job with the ball as well as the bat in this match. His ability to create pressure with the ball may be crucial for England.

Betting tips.

I would not recommend betting on too many options on this match. Much too unpredictable. The only one that I would recommend is going under on Strauss if he faces the first ball, and overs if he doesn't. (see last match's preview)

Preview - Aus Ind 4th Test Adelaide 11/12

While the series is dead, this match is potentially the most interesting.

Australia are wanting to end this series on a high note. India need redemption.

There is going to be a spotlight on both wicket keepers. Haddin desperately needs a good match. At the moment it is hard to see how he is keeping his spot. He doesn't look to be in as good form with the gloves as some of the keepers in the BBL, (although there is a big difference between test and domestic t20) and also seems to be batting out of a hole.

Saha has sat on the sidelines for about 38 years (it must feel like) watching Dhoni. Now he gets his chance. He is in good form with the bat, averaging 117 in his last 4 first class matches, and that might prove to be a welcome boost for India.

The transition from Dhoni's captaincy to Sehwag's will be interesting. Adelaide is a challenging place to captain a team, with very long straight boundaries and short square ones. Sehwag's last attempt on a pitch like this was vs NZ at McLean Park in Napier. New Zealand scored 619/9d at 4 an over after being 23/3. If he gets an opening like that against Australia he needs to capitalise on it, although that is a lot easier to say from my chair than his.

History would say that Adelaide offers the best chance for India. It is a batsman's ground, with both spinners and quick bowlers averaging over 40 there in the last 10 years. It is one of 14 grounds in the world to hold that distinction. Over the last 5 years India has played 13 matches at grounds in this category. They have won 4, lost 1 and drawn 8. Australia has played 8, won 1, lost 2 and drawn 5. In the last 3 games on these surfaces between the two countries, India have won 1, and 2 have been draws.

Likewise Austraia have had mixed results at Adelaide recently. The last 4 matches have seen a win and a loss, both by an innings and 2 draws. One of the draws was against India.

Things to watch for:

1. How does Saha go? It's one thing hitting unbeaten hundreds in Indian domestic cricket. Doing it in Australia is another issue.

2. How will VVS Laxman do? This pitch is likely to suit him more than the others, but he has been in such poor form it would not be surprising if he had another poor game.

3. Shaun Marsh. In all likely-hood this match is looking like a very important one for Marsh's career. He has underperformed badly so far this series, and while he has shown us that he is capable of succeeding, he needs to prove that he is more than another Marcus North by putting together a good innings (or 2) here.

4. India's fielding and running. Australia have scored 226 more runs than India in this series. However they have only scored 34 more runs in boundaries. Australia have run better, and been better at preventing India running. Australia's activity rate is roughly 0.34 while India are at about 0.25. Part of this is because Australia have been bowling more of a 5th/6th stump line, and slightly forward of a good length as their standard delivery, where as India have bowled a slightly shorter 4th stump as their standard delivery. The fuller wider bowling makes it harder to work singles, but easier to hit boundaries. However India still have had a number of opportunities to score more by running, and have let too many easy runs in through sloppy fielding. Will the change to Sehwag make a difference? I personally doubt it.

5. Forget Tendulkar's hundred, can anyone from India make one? So far India's top scores in this series is 83. They have had the same number of batsmen get to 50 as Australia, but 4 of the Australians managed to convert to 100's. Over the last 10 years Indian batsmen have scored one away century for every 17 innings. So far this test they have had 66 innings without one. Traditionally the probability of an Indian batsman getting to 100 once they had got to 50 away from home is about 30%. So we would have expected 4 centurys given that they had been past fifty 14 times. Surely that trend will break at the benign Adelaide Oval.

Betting tips.

The last couple of matches have not been good. My overall success rate has dropped from about 1.4 (40c profit from every dollar bet) to about 1.05, so hopefully I can make it up to you all this time round.

1. Kohli top Indian batsman 1st innings - $6.50 - He looks like he is coming into form. I'd pick this as about a 25% probability, which makes these good odds.

2. Harris top Australia bowler 1st innings - $3.50 - Lillee said that Adelaide suited bowlers who bowled good cutters. Harris seemed to do this in the bits of the last match that I watched. He also bowled much better than his figures indicated.

3. Tendulkar 86 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I genuinely think he will get his hundred here.

4. Saha 71 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I'd expect him to take at least 2 catches which is 20 points. Then 51 runs in 2 innings seems getable.

5. Siddle 110 and over - player performance - $1.83 - It wouldn't be a massive surprise if he picked up 2 wickets in one innings and 3 in the other, and chipped in with 20 with the bat.