A simulation to see who will win the World Cup

One of the main purposes of statistics is to help inform decisions. Cricket statistics are often used when deciding on selection of players, or (more often) arguments about who is the best at a particular aspect. They can help decide which strategies are best, what an equivalent score is in a reduced match (with a particular case of Duckworth Lewis Stern) or which teams should automatically qualify for the World Cup (David Kendix). They are often also used by bookmakers (both the reputable, legal variety and the more dubious underworld version) to set odds about who is going to win.

I decided to attempt to build a model to calculate the probability of each team winning, based on their previous form. This was going to allow me (hopefully) to predict the probabilities of each outcome of the world cup, by using a simulation. It didn’t prove to be as easy as I had hoped.

My first thought was to look at each team’s net run rate in each match, adjust for home advantage, and then average it out. That seemed sensible, and the first attempt at doing that looked like it would be perfect. Most teams (all except Zimbabwe) had roughly symmetrical net run rates, and they fitted a normal curve really well. The only problem was that Afghanistan was miles ahead of everyone else. The fact that they had mostly played lower quality opponents in the past 4 years meant that they had recorded a lot more convincing wins than anyone else.

This was clearly a problem. India and England both had negative net run rates, while Afghanistan, Bangladesh and West Indies were all expected to win most of their matches.

I then tried a different approach, based off David Kendix’s approach of using each result to adjust a ranking. But rather than having a ranking that was based off wins, I based it off net run rate. So if a team had an expected net run rate of 0.5, and another had an expected net run rate of 0.6, the first team would have an expected net run rate of -0.1 for their match. If they did better than that, they went up, and if they did worse than that, they went down.

However, I found that some results ended up having too much bearing. If I made it sensitive to a change in the results, it ended up changing way too much based off one big loss/win. England dropped almost a whole net run per over based on the series in the West Indies. So this was clearly not a good option.

Next, I decided to try using logistic regression, and seeing how that turned out. Logistic regression is a way of determining probabilities of events happening if there are only two outcomes. To do that, I removed every tie or match with no result, and set to work building the models.

My initial results were exciting. By just using the team, opposition and home/away status, I was able to predict the results of the previous three world cups quite accurately using the data from the preceding 4 years. (I could not go back further than that, as they included teams making their ODI debut, and there was accordingly no data to use to build the model.

The results were really pleasing. I graphed them here, grouped to the nearest 0.2 (ie the point at 0.6 represents all matches that the model gave between 0.5 and 0.7 as the chance for a team to win), compared to the actual result for that match. It seems that they slightly overstate the chance of an upset (possibly due to upsets being more common outside world cups, where players tend to be rested against smaller nations), but overall they were fairly reliable, and (most importantly) the team that the model predicted would win, generally won.

I could then use this to give a ranking of each team that directly related to their likelihood of winning against each other. The model gave everything in relation to Afghanistan, with the being 0, and any number higher than 0 being how much more likely a team was to win against the same opponent as Afghanistan. (Afghanistan was the reference simply because they were first in the alphabet).

This turns out to be fairly close to the ICC rankings. So that was encouraging.

I tried adding a number of things to the model (ground types, continents, interactions, weighting the more recent matches more highly) but the added complexity did not result in better predictions when I tested them, so I stuck to a fairly simple model, only really controlling for home advantage.

Next I applied the probabilities to every match and found the probabilities of each team making the semi-finals.

The next step was to then extend the simulation past the group stage, and find the winner.

After running through the simulation a few more times, I came out with this:

A couple of points to remember here: every simulation is an estimate. The model is almost certainly going to estimate the probabilities incorrectly, but it will get them close, and they will be close enough to give a good estimate of the actual final probabilities. It is also likely to overstate Bangladesh’s ability due to their incredible home record; overstate Pakistan’s ability as a lot of neutral matches for them they have had a degree of home advantage in UAE; and understate West Indies, due to them having not played their best players in a lot of matches in the past 4 years. But these are not likely to make a massive difference to the semi-finalist predictions.

Given this, I’d suggest that if you are wanting to bet on the winner of the world cup, these are the odds that I would consider fair for each team:

I will try to update these probabilities periodically throughout the world cup, and report on their accuracy.

Preview ODI 3, New Zealand vs South Africa, Seddon PArk, 2014

NZ will need to overcome ring rust today

One of the reasons Mike Tyson was such a champion boxer was that in his early days he had fantastic defence. As a result, he was able to fight every 6 weeks rather than every 3 months (like most heavyweight boxers do) because he wasn't getting hurt in the ring. Fighting so regularly meant that he never got "ring rust." Ring rust is a condition where boxers miss out on the little details that make a big difference. An uppercut that connects with the right timing, on the right part of the jaw, knocks someone out. An upper cut that lands slightly to the left or the right of that, or arrives 1/4 of a second later hurts the opponent, but doesn't finish the fight.

It doesn't matter how much you spar in the gym, or hit bags, you can only fix ring rust by time in the ring.  Often when you watch a boxing match between two top fighters, the first 2 rounds tell you very little about the way that the rest of the match will go, they only tell you who is the rustiest.

In this series, New Zealand have been rusty. Very rusty. The bowlers have not bowled the right lengths consistently. The fielder have missed at least 4 catches and 3 run outs. The batsmen have hit the ball to fielders rather than into gaps, and thrown away good starts.

South Africa, on the other hand, were playing 5 weeks ago. They look refreshed and eager. The bowlers have been (generally) hitting good lengths, and the batsmen have (generally) made the most of the starts when they have go them.

It's hard to suggest anything different is going to happen in Hamilton today. Amla had two lives before he got to 20, then he cashed in. His technique looks totally unsuited to opening the batting in New Zealand conditions (especially pre-Christmas), but his hand-eye co-ordination is so good that he dominates when he gets the chance. If New Zealand give him more opportunities through poor fielding, then he will (in all likelihood) do exactly the same in Hamilton.

Hamilton tends to be a difficult place to start batting. Matthew Hayden described it as the hardest place in the world to see the ball. However, he also carried his bat for 181 in a match there.

In the last 10 years about 59% of top order innings in Hamilton have scored 25 or less runs. That's on a par with the overall average (61%) but the interesting thing is that in the innings where a batsman reaches 25, they go on to do better. The overall average is 52.22 (so they get another 27.2 once they get to 25). The average in Hamilton is 58.35 (an extra 33.35). This is actually a very significant difference. Of the 132 grounds that have hosted ODI's in the past 10 years, only 5 have had more then 5 games and a higher average once a player gets to 25.

As a result, making the most of early chances is vital. It's where New Zealand's rustiness could come back to haunt them. Although, there is one thing that will work in their favour: the weather.

It is likely to rain in Hamilton today. As one of only two inland cities in New Zealand, it's one of the easiest places to forecast the weather for. The game is likely to get a small shower during the first innings, a small shower near the start of the second innings, and then be curtailed by rain. With the overhead conditions, both captains will probably want to bowl first, and that is likely to be an advantage. However, the rain is likely to mean that batsmen will have to re-start their innings after they get started, so the normal Hamilton pattern might not play ball.

Betting tips.

If I had $50 to bet on this match, here's where it would go:

1. $10 on NZ to win at $2.45

It's almost always a better idea to bowl first in an ODI, especially when there's a breeze and cloud cover. This is simply because of winning the toss

2. 2 x $10 Over on any South African batsman that gets to 25.

They all have such good hand eye co-ordination that once they get to 25, they are likely to score more than 60. Watch the live betting, and go over whatever line the TAB offer.

3. 2 x $10 Under for any New Zealand batsman that gets to 25.

They are all looking so rusty, that it feels likely that they will throw it away. Other than Luke Ronchi.

(All odds accurate at time of writing from the NZ TAB)

Match 2, NZ vs South Africa preview

Trent Boult may be a key player in match 2

We now have a little more information about Bay Oval, and what it's all about.  We also have seen both teams play.  And really, we don't actually know much more.

Here are some things that I noticed, and some battles to look forward to.

1. Trent Boult vs Quentin de Kock.  de Kock is a good batsman, in good form, but he looked somewhat clueless against Boult, and it looks like he will need to develop a better plan as to how to bat against him.

2. Vernon Philander vs Martin Guptill. Guptill looked completely out of form in the first game, but that's at odds with how well he played in the CPL just recently. Often a batsman looks out of form when a bowler is bowling in places that makes it difficult for him to score.  I think that is what actually happened in the first match. It will be interesting to see if Guptill has managed to figure out how to get some runs off Philander's bowling.

3. Kyle Mills vs Hashim Amla. If Mills plays in this match, it will be interesting to see if he can repeat the dose against Amla. Mills bowled 21 deliveries to Amla, and he managed to only score 12 before getting out. And those 12 mostly came from streaky, un-Amla like shots. Conventional wisdom would say that Amla's too good to repeat that performance, but Mills is a very crafty bowler, and his successes against Chris Gayle say that he is capable of targeting a player and really getting on top of them.

4. Brendon McCullum vs Morne Morkel.  McCullum backs himself to dominate anyone, but he has always found Morkel a difficult bowler to face. Morkel got him in the first match, and McCullum will not want a repeat in the second.

5. Jimmy Neesham vs Dale Steyn. Steyn will be particularly grumpy with the way that Neesham approached their confrontation in the first match. Neesham didn't look phased by the great bowler at all. It will be interesting to see what lengths Steyn bowls to him today.

Betting tips.

If I was betting $50 on this match, here's where it would go:

1. Total match run outs $10 on over 1.5 at $2.80
There were non in the first match, but there were 3 close calls, and that was without the sort of scoreboard pressure that normally brings about run outs. McCullum sets fields trying to get run outs, and ABdV has been working hard on getting the South African fielding back to where they were in years gone by.

2. South Africa top run scorer $10 on AB de Villiers at $5.00
de Villiers has a phenomenal record in the second match of a series. Over the past 3 years he's only had 2 times that I could see that he's hit less than 50 in the second match in a series. He's hit 3 centuries and 2 not out fifties.  He's also got the wood on most of the New Zealand bowlers.

3. New Zealand top run scorer $10 on Tom Latham at $7.50
Latham looked fantastic, and would have been likely to got a big score other than a piece of bad luck against Duminy.

4. Hashim Amla runs $10 on 0-20 at $2.55
I think opening against a line up featuring (at least 2 of) Mills, Southee and Boult is a very difficult prospect.

5. Head to Head $10 on New Zealand at $2.60
New Zealand are a better team than they showed in the last game.  Look for a big step up.

All odds are from NZ TAB and are accurate at time of writing.

Match preview 1st ODI NZ vs SA, Mount Maunganui,

The circular Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui

The countdown to the World Cup finally feels like it's started for real. South Africa are touring New Zealand for 3 ODI matches that are more a means to an end than an end in themselves.  Both teams say that they want to win these matches, and the players who get on the field definitely will.  But they are both aware that the real target is the World Cup.

Surprisingly this match is being played at Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui. It's the 4th ground in the Northern Districts area to hold an international match, and is not going to be used in the World Cup.  However, it is in New Zealand's fastest growing region, and is likely to be a place where a lot of international cricket will be played in the future.  It is also on the east coast, so it is a lot less likely to be rained off in spring time than somewhere like Auckland or Wellington.

As there has never been an international at the ground, there are some aspects that are hard to predict. A par score for the ground really has not been established at this level, and almost all of the players will go in without too much baggage (positive or negative) at the ground.

There were a number of warm up matches played there, and we can tell some things from those.

Firstly, bowlers that tend to bang the ball in were punished.  It seems that the fuller the pace bowlers bowled, the better they did. Secondly the scores were all over the place. Some teams were scoring 300+ while others were struggling to pass 150.  Also, the spin bowlers took lots of wickets but (with two exceptions) went for lots of runs. The two exceptions were Daniel Vettori and local boy Jono Boult (brother of Trent)

The ground is an interesting shape, particularly given it's name of Bay Oval. It is a perfect circle. The boundary is 68m from the centre of the pitch in every direction. This means that it has a straight boundary of 79m and a square boundary of 67m. This obviously favours players who are good at playing the hook, cut and scoop shots (which probably explains why bowlers who bang the ball in get punished).

I've looked through the records of the players at similar shaped, coastal grounds in the past 3 years and there are three names that feature at the top of the list: de Villiers, McLaren and well ahead of all else, du Plessis. The top New Zealand name is Williamson (who is not playing) followed by Neesham.

If I was looking to make a couple of bets, I'd look at putting some money on both du Plessis and McLaren to be top scorer. While it's guaranteed that at least one of these bets will fail, I think it would be a sensible move to cover both.  At time of writing, du Plessis is paying $4.50 and McLaren is paying $26 to be top scorer at the NZ TAB. I think this is good money for both of them. du Plessis has gone past 90 in 5 of his last 9 ODI innings. That's compelling form. I'd look at McLaren for a different reason.

The ball is likely to swing at Bay Oval. It's overcast, with showers likely. The tide will turn at about 11:00, an normally the ball swings around the turn of the tide (either just before or just after). Trent Boult grew up in Tauranga so this is his home ground. If he starts getting the ball to go round corners (as he can) he is almost unplayable. In the matches at the Champions League T20 when the ball swung, he was almost unplayable. To go with that, Kyle Mills has been a beast at similar grounds in recent times. He's averaged 11 at an economy rate of under 4. To back that up, in one of the warm up matches (for Auckland against Afghanistan) he took 2/14 off 7 overs. Mitchell McLenaghan is not in such form, but he has a good record against South Africa, and the ability to hurry up batsmen.  I think it's actually quite likely that New Zealand will take early wickets, and South Africa will need to rebuild. That will create a platform for someone like McLaren to succeed.

As far as New Zealand's batting goes, it is a bit difficult to make too many predictions.  Despite his game being suited to grounds like this, Brendon McCullum has never really been successful at this sort of ground. Neesham is opening for the first time, so that will test his technique more than coming in at 6 does, especially against Steyn, Morkel and Philander (Steyn has the second best figures at grounds like this, after Mills, with an average about 18 and an economy rate just under 5). The other interesting selection is Dean Brownlie. Brownlie is particularly good off the back foot, and has had some success against South Africa, but in every large innings that he has put together, he was dropped early (often more than once). If he gets started, he might be worth putting some money on for NZ top scorer, but I certainly wouldn't back him until he made it to 25.

The other thing to watch out for in this match will be the rain.  There may be some showers early on, but it's quite likely that there will be some serious rain in the evening. This means that there is a reasonable chance that the game will be called off early, and Duckworth-Lewis will need to be used.  I'm a big fan of the Duckworth-Lewis system, but it does hurt teams with good batting depth.  The two teams in world cricket that it works against the most are these two. As a result, the team that bats first is likely to have a slight advantage if it rains.

If I had $50 to bet on this match, I'd suggest these:

1. AB De Villiers to outscore Hashim Amla $10 at $1.92
2. Total match run outs over 1.5 $10 at $3.00
3. Faf du Plessis top South African scorer $15 at $4.50
4. Ryan McLaren top South African scorer $5 at $26.00
5. Whoever bats first to win the match $10 at what ever the odds are post toss.

(all odds from the NZ TAB at the time of writing)

CricketGeek Player Profile: James Harris

James Harris

I recently had an interesting email arrive advising me to have a look at the newest addition to the English squad: the young Welsh bowler, James Harris.

When I first looked at his numbers they were not particularly impressive. However the English selectors have recently made a habit of picking players with poor domestic records, and those players being a real success. (for more info on that see this post on the The Declaration Game.) So I felt his numbers demanded looking at more closely.

As someone who occasionally enjoys cricket betting I like looking out for some patterns in players performance to see if there is anything that can inform my betting.

The first thing I looked at with Harris was to see if there was a positive trend in his performances. He started playing domestic cricket when he was very young, so I assumed that he would be improving. However, if anything, his performances have been getting worse as the batsmen have figured him out. Here is a graph of his 15 innings average and economy rates in T20 cricket.

These are hardly the sort of thing that suggest that he is going to set the world on fire. However sometimes there is more to a player than their average.

There has been a distinct pattern to his good performances and his bad ones. He is outstanding with the new ball, but not unconvincing with the old one. For example in the English PPP tour to India he took 3/19 off 7 overs when he opened the bowling (in a 50 over match), but 0/42 off 4 in the match where he came in later on.

Roughly 2/3 of his wickets have been against top 3 batsmen, and more than half of his wickets have been taken in the first 5 overs of a match. As a result he is far more valuable than his raw figures indicate, particularly in a team with a couple of batting all-rounders, who would allow his captain the luxury of only bowling him when he was most effective (at the start of the innings).

If I was betting on a match involving Harris, I would probably look to bet on him going for few runs early in the innings, but bet on him going for a lot at the end of the innings.

Additional research by Celia Roche

Preview NZ SA 2nd Test Hamilton 11/12

Here are some things to watch for in the 2nd test.

1. The first innings is very important.

In tests at Seddon Park, the team that bats first has only lost once when they have scored more than 300, and has only won once when they have scored less than 300. The first inning is vital in Hamilton. The nature of the ground is that the first hour is very difficult, but it tends to level out. If the batsmen can get through the first couple of hours then they will be able to cash in.

2. The ball swings in the morning

Often the first hour of the day is very difficult for the batsman. The humidity means that the ball swings, and often a number of wickets fall in the first hour. (an hour before play on the first day, there is 90% humidity, and every day is forecast to be similar)

3. Attacking batsmen.

Brendan McCullum and Craig McMillan are amongst the highest run scorers at Hamilton. Despite once describing Hamilton as the hardest place to play in the world, Matthew Hayden had a good record there too. This is a ground that allows the batsmen full value for their shots during the day.

4. Will the pitch break up?

The pitch at Hamilton has been somewhat unpredictable. If there is any hot days then the pitch breaks up very quickly. However there are no hot days forecast, and so it might just get low and slow. The line up that New Zealand choose to take into the match will be likely to be based on what they think the pitch will do.

Some good bets:

McCullum 79& over. He's in good touch, and has a good record at this ground.
Nz to win $5. They probably won't win, but I'd suggest they have about a 30% chance, and $5 is much better than that.

Preview - 3rd Test Pak Eng Dubai 11/12

The third test. A dead rubber, but one with a lot to play for.

Pakistan have the chance to really stamp their authority on England. They are starting to look like they are a team that is capable of reaching the top of world cricket.

England however got in a winning position in the last game, and then dropped it badly. Now they get their chance to get something out of this tour. If England lose this, then They create an opening for South Africa to take over the number 1 spot in the world rankings.

Individual players are also under some pressure. Younis Khan, Andrew Strauss, Eion Morgan, Keven Pietersen and Ian Bell have all yet to make a mark with the bat, and Graeme Swann has mostly been ineffective with the ball.

The pitch sounds interesting, apparently it has a good covering of grass, and so it could provide some early assistance for the English seamers. Ironically the bowler who might be the most important cog in the wheel in this match is Jonathan Trott. His seam-up's may prove to be vital for England.

Betting tips:

Normally my advice is "don't bet on matches involving Pakistan, they are too unpredictable." That advice still holds.

However if you really wanted to put your money somewhere, try Taufeeq Umar under 38.5 at $1.57. He is in average form, there's some grass on the wicket, and Broad and Anderson are great bowlers.

Also England to have a 1st innings lead at $1.90 is not a bad look, given that the best batting conditions are likely to be on days 2 and 3.

Preview - Pak Eng 2nd Test Abu Dhabi 11/12

The first test was a big surprise.

I was honestly surprised by how well Hafeez batted, and how poorly England batted.

The big question now is if it was an aberration or a forming trend. England looked horrible in the ODI matches in India, but they often look horrible in ODI matches. This is because they are an awful ODI team. But perhaps it had something to do with being in Asia.

The English overall record in Asia over the past 5 years looks respectable, about 33. However once you remove Bangladesh from that equation, their average drops to 26.68.

Over the same time Pakistan have averaged 36.

England desperately require their batsmen (who are outstanding players) to make some runs here in Abu Dhabi.

The other big issue is where the wickets will come from. Abu Dhabi has been a graveyard for bowlers. Both spin bowlers and pace bowlers have averaged just over 49 in the 2 tests there. And they haven't been bad bowlers. Steyn 4/138, Herath 3/134, Sami 0/129. It is not a bowlers friend.

The bowlers that have been the most effective here have generally been swing bowlers, so there is some light there for England, but it is a dim glow.

There are a couple of things to look for:

1. Often players perform better in milestone matches. Cook and Strauss are playing their 100th innings together as an opening partnership. They are currently the 4th most prolific partnership, roughly 300 behind Atapatu and Jayasuria, who opened up 118 times. This could be time for a big one from these two.

2. Umar Gul and bad balls getting wickets. Gull managed to pick up 3 wickets off long hops in the 2nd innings. Often bowlers that have a batsman under pressure can bowl a bad delivery and pick up a wicket with it. It will be interesting to see if his wickets are from good deliveries or from bad deliveries after a period of pressure.

3. How will Panesar go? He looked more dangerous than Swann in the warm up matches, and Swann was the pick of the English bowlers in Dubai. This could be Monty's chance to take back his mantle.

4. Jonathan Trott. He will probably be asked to do a job with the ball as well as the bat in this match. His ability to create pressure with the ball may be crucial for England.

Betting tips.

I would not recommend betting on too many options on this match. Much too unpredictable. The only one that I would recommend is going under on Strauss if he faces the first ball, and overs if he doesn't. (see last match's preview)

Preview - Aus Ind 4th Test Adelaide 11/12

While the series is dead, this match is potentially the most interesting.

Australia are wanting to end this series on a high note. India need redemption.

There is going to be a spotlight on both wicket keepers. Haddin desperately needs a good match. At the moment it is hard to see how he is keeping his spot. He doesn't look to be in as good form with the gloves as some of the keepers in the BBL, (although there is a big difference between test and domestic t20) and also seems to be batting out of a hole.

Saha has sat on the sidelines for about 38 years (it must feel like) watching Dhoni. Now he gets his chance. He is in good form with the bat, averaging 117 in his last 4 first class matches, and that might prove to be a welcome boost for India.

The transition from Dhoni's captaincy to Sehwag's will be interesting. Adelaide is a challenging place to captain a team, with very long straight boundaries and short square ones. Sehwag's last attempt on a pitch like this was vs NZ at McLean Park in Napier. New Zealand scored 619/9d at 4 an over after being 23/3. If he gets an opening like that against Australia he needs to capitalise on it, although that is a lot easier to say from my chair than his.

History would say that Adelaide offers the best chance for India. It is a batsman's ground, with both spinners and quick bowlers averaging over 40 there in the last 10 years. It is one of 14 grounds in the world to hold that distinction. Over the last 5 years India has played 13 matches at grounds in this category. They have won 4, lost 1 and drawn 8. Australia has played 8, won 1, lost 2 and drawn 5. In the last 3 games on these surfaces between the two countries, India have won 1, and 2 have been draws.

Likewise Austraia have had mixed results at Adelaide recently. The last 4 matches have seen a win and a loss, both by an innings and 2 draws. One of the draws was against India.

Things to watch for:

1. How does Saha go? It's one thing hitting unbeaten hundreds in Indian domestic cricket. Doing it in Australia is another issue.

2. How will VVS Laxman do? This pitch is likely to suit him more than the others, but he has been in such poor form it would not be surprising if he had another poor game.

3. Shaun Marsh. In all likely-hood this match is looking like a very important one for Marsh's career. He has underperformed badly so far this series, and while he has shown us that he is capable of succeeding, he needs to prove that he is more than another Marcus North by putting together a good innings (or 2) here.

4. India's fielding and running. Australia have scored 226 more runs than India in this series. However they have only scored 34 more runs in boundaries. Australia have run better, and been better at preventing India running. Australia's activity rate is roughly 0.34 while India are at about 0.25. Part of this is because Australia have been bowling more of a 5th/6th stump line, and slightly forward of a good length as their standard delivery, where as India have bowled a slightly shorter 4th stump as their standard delivery. The fuller wider bowling makes it harder to work singles, but easier to hit boundaries. However India still have had a number of opportunities to score more by running, and have let too many easy runs in through sloppy fielding. Will the change to Sehwag make a difference? I personally doubt it.

5. Forget Tendulkar's hundred, can anyone from India make one? So far India's top scores in this series is 83. They have had the same number of batsmen get to 50 as Australia, but 4 of the Australians managed to convert to 100's. Over the last 10 years Indian batsmen have scored one away century for every 17 innings. So far this test they have had 66 innings without one. Traditionally the probability of an Indian batsman getting to 100 once they had got to 50 away from home is about 30%. So we would have expected 4 centurys given that they had been past fifty 14 times. Surely that trend will break at the benign Adelaide Oval.

Betting tips.

The last couple of matches have not been good. My overall success rate has dropped from about 1.4 (40c profit from every dollar bet) to about 1.05, so hopefully I can make it up to you all this time round.

1. Kohli top Indian batsman 1st innings - $6.50 - He looks like he is coming into form. I'd pick this as about a 25% probability, which makes these good odds.

2. Harris top Australia bowler 1st innings - $3.50 - Lillee said that Adelaide suited bowlers who bowled good cutters. Harris seemed to do this in the bits of the last match that I watched. He also bowled much better than his figures indicated.

3. Tendulkar 86 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I genuinely think he will get his hundred here.

4. Saha 71 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I'd expect him to take at least 2 catches which is 20 points. Then 51 runs in 2 innings seems getable.

5. Siddle 110 and over - player performance - $1.83 - It wouldn't be a massive surprise if he picked up 2 wickets in one innings and 3 in the other, and chipped in with 20 with the bat.

Preview - Pak Eng 1st Test Dubai 11/12

The two top performing sides from last year meet in a mouthwatering match up.

The attacking England vs the conservative Pakistan. It seems like a role reversal from recent years.

England have an interesting choice. I feel it's between Eion Morgan and Monty Panesar. Prior, Broad and Swann are a fantastic 7,8,9 but they would actually still be a very good 6,7,8. Having the extra bowler to spread the load, and particularly having an extra spin bolwer (and one who is in form) is not a bad look. However England got a lot of bowling out of Pietersen and Trott last year, and they might be keen on relying on them again, and keeping their line up as similar as possible.

Pakistan are likely to go into the match with 3 front line spinners, Saeed Ajmal, Mohammed Hafeez and Abdur Rehman. This will be interesting, as it will provide a good examination for England's batsmen new found confidence against spin. They have been improving solidly over the last few years against spin, but the conditions in Dubai might provide a point of difference.

England vs spin last 4 years:

Year	Average
2007	37.81
2008	38.54
2009	46.03
2010	51.06
2011	82.73

It is hard to see where the wickets are going to come from, other than patience. In the last couple of years that matches have been played in UAE, only Junaid Khan has averaged under 30 with a strike rate under 60. (Welegedara got close). There are likely to be some big scores, particularly from the patient batsmen like Misbah-ul-Haq and Alister Cook.

Things to watch for:

1. Mohammed Hafeez. He has bowled like a genius recently. He doesn't have all the tricks like Saeed Ajmal, he just bowls really well. However his batting has slipped. Will he continue on his Dipak Patelesque journey from batsman who bowls a bit to bowler who bats a bit, or will he step up with the bat too?

2. Swann vs Ajmal. Two very different spinners, both capable of doing a lot of damage with the ball. Who will come out on top?

3. Wahab Riaz and Umar Gul. When they are on, both can be devastating bowlers. The Emerati air is not likely to help with the swing too much, but any assistance that is offered they will be sure to take advantage of.

4. Who faces the first ball for England? When he's been captain, Strauss has averaged 23 less when he faces the first ball than when he doesn't. It possibly takes him a while to switch out of the more macro captain thinking into the more micro opener thinking.

Betting tips:

1. Top England batsman - Jonathan Trott $4.50. He averages 85 in the first match of a series. He likes to lay down a marker. He also averages 67 against Pakistan. Probably about a 30% probability.

2. Top Pakistan batsman - Younis Khan. $4.50, Misbah-ul-Haq $5.50. I'm actually going to take both here because I think that one of these two will be the top scorer. The conditions are likely to suit Misbah, but Younis has not averaged under 50 for a year since 2004, and he often does well in the first two games of a series. My split will be 20 on Misbah and 25 on Younis. It will return slightly more on Younis Khan, because I think he is slightly more likely to be top scorer.

3. Younis Khan to outscore Maohammad Hafeez $1.83. Seems easy money to me. Hafeez scored 143 against Bangladesh, but that is a slightly different prospect to playing Anderson, Broad and Tremlett with the new ball.

4. Pakistan not to win. $1.22. I see a draw as the most likely outcome here, but I can't see Pakistan getting England out cheaply twice.

Preview - SA SL 1st ODI Paarl 11/12

This is a bit of the battle of the unknowns here.

There have only been a handful of matches at Paarl. There have only been two matches between South Africa and Sri Lanka in the last 5 years. Both teams are somewhat unpredictable, and Sri Lanka are likely to have a vastly different line up to the test matches.

So it is hard to make too many predictions really.

However there are a couple of things to look for.

1. Dilshan hit 58 and 106 in his last two innings against South Africa. He is under some scrutiny as captain and needs a score. Will this be his time?

2. De Villiers is likely to bat at 4, keep wickets and captain his team. Dhoni and Sangakkara both proved that it is possible to succeed while keeping, captaining and batting in the top 5, but Gilchrist, Germon, Taibu and Flower all struggled with the excessive workload. De Villiers is certainly a talented batsman, but so were Gilchrist and Flower. It will be interesting to see if he can hold it all together.

3. Ajantha Mendis is likely to make a return. He's only bowled 7 overs against South Africa in any form of cricket, but he took 3 for 30 in those 7 overs, picking up Smith, Kallis and Duminy. If he can repeat this then Sri Lanka are in with a big show.

4. Lasith Malinga is playing his 100th ODI match. He has played 4 ODI matches against South Africa and taken 10 wickets, roughly one wicket every 3 overs. He is always an interesting bowler to watch, and it will be good to see how he goes in this match.

5. JP Duminy looking to get on the board. Duminy's last 4 ODI innings against Sri Lanka have been 3(3), 0(2), 0(1) & 0(1). He has faced 7 deliveries scored 3 runs and been out 4 times. However his last outing at Paarl was him guiding the Cape Cobras to a win with 52* at the end of a match, so he may be in a good space to turn that round.

Some betting tips.

In the three matches that have been played at Paarl between big teams, there have been 2 century opening partnerships and one 50 opening partnership. The 2nd wicket has been even more productive. If you are looking to be over on any batsman, make sure they are in the top three. Likewise don't think the game is over just because one team has a good start. Most teams get off to a good start at this ground.

Preview - SA SL 3rd Test Cape Town

Only South Africa would drop a bowler after he took a 7 wicket bag on debut. And not get criticized for it. South Africa have dropped de Lange for a fit-again Philander. And who wouldn't.

The combination of the aggressive Morkel, the relentless Steyn and the slipery Philander looks like their best one, and, (potentially) the best in world cricket.

Sri Lanka are a team that are very hard to pin down. They looked like world-beaters, then went on and lost a number of tests, and looked like the Ellerslie 2nd XI would give them a good run for their money. Then they came back and beat South Africa.

However they really won the game in one hour of brilliance from Welegedara and Herath. The rest of the game was really quite even.

Reasons Sri Lanka might be confident:

Sangakkara has found some form. - I believe Sangakkara has been the best batsman in the world over the past 2 or 3 years, but he had had a run of outs that even Chris Martin would be disappointed in. That was until his outstanding 108 in the second innings at Kingsmead. If he starts scoring well - then Sri Lanka are a different team. In the matches where he hits a 50 Sri Lanka win 2.33 times more than they lose. In the matches where he doesn't they lose more than they win, with a w/l ratio of 0.75

Newlands offers something for the spinners. - With Herath in good form, being at Newlands could be the best thing for Sri Lanka. At Newlands roughly 7 wickets per match fall to spin, as opposed to about 5 per match in the rest of South Africa. This will get Herath smiling.

Reasons South Africa might be confident

The game is at Newlands. - Only Australia has beaten South Africa at Newlands since the reintroduction. It has been a fortress for them. There are only 5 grounds in the world where the home team has a better record in the last 20 years than South Africa do at Newlands.

Philander is back. - In test cricket so far he's bowled about 85 overs and taken 24 wickets. That's one every 3 and a bit overs. To put that in context it's more than twice as frequent as Waqar Younis. It's even ahead of George Lohmann.

Kallis is due. He has had a poor season both with the bat and the ball, averaging 14 with the bat and 232 with the ball. It is his worst ever season with the ball and 2nd worst with the bat. But he is such a classy player that this can not continue. He must find some runs soon, and perhaps this is the time.

Betting tips

1. South Africa to win. - $1.44 seems easy money.
2. Samaraweera to top score in 1st innings. - $5.50 He's likely to do it about 1 in 4 at the moment, so $5.50 is good money.


(Picture courtesy Vaughan Leiberum)

Preview - Aus Ind 2nd Test Sydney 11/12

After the fairly comprehensive ending to the first test it is easy to forget that the game was neck and neck at the start of what turned out to be the final day.

Australia will go into this test as favourites again, but looking at the weather forecast I think that this could be a damp squib instead. With rain forecast for each of the last 3 days, $3.75 on a draw looks like very good odds.

If there is play it is likely to be interrupted play, which plays into the hands of swing bowlers. I like the look of Ben Hilfenhaus at $3.50 to be Australia's top bowler.

The curator has said that he feels this pitch is like the '50s and '60s pitches, where bowlers like Joe Partridge and Alan Davidson took truckloads of wickets by bowling full and allowing the ball to swing. Often they were backed up by a fast bowler at the other end, keeping the batsmen on the back foot. As a result the Yadav-Khan partnership could be worth watching. In some ways It could be a case of the better Yadav bowls in this test, the more wickets will fall at the other end.

Dravid is possibly going to be the key for India. On tricky pitches he has been outstanding, scoring 50 or more in 6 of the last 14 times that India have been bowled out for 300 or less. He goes well when India's backs are against the wall. (forgive the pun).

However the SCG has traditionally favoured batsmen who go for their shots. Keith Miller averaged in the 60's there, and Doug Walters, averaged over 100 at the start of his career when he was still playing shots willy-nilly. Sobers also loved the ground. Given that record it will be interesting to see how Warner and Sehwag fare here. Their attacking instincts may hold them in good stead.

No statistical analysis of this game could be complete without mentioning one important number. 221.33. Sachin Tendalkur's average at the SCG. It is the second highest average by one player at one ground Falling between Miandad's 330.5 at Niaz Stadium in Hyderabad and the Don's 192.6 at Heddingly in Leeds. (min. 4 matches played). However those runs were scored on the lower, dryer, spinnier SCG of the last 20 years, rather than the traditional green, bouncy one.

Another thing to look for is Ashwin in the first innings. He looks to me like he could become a great first innings spinner, ala Daniel Vettori. He manages to get under the bat, and bowls fuller than most spin bowlers in the longer form.

Key bets

1. Draw, $3.75 - possibly only going to be a 3 day test
2. Dravid to run scorer for India, $5 - likely to be tricky conditions, his specialty.
3. Zaheer Khan top Indian bowler, $3.25 - swing is his friend.
4. Hilfenhaus top Australian bowler, $3.50 - swing + interruptions.
5. Ponting to score more than Clarke, $1.80 - Ponting averages 64 in Sydney, while Clarke averages 28.

Preview - Aus Ind 1st Test Melbourne

Well, it's almost here, Day 1 of the first test of the Border-Gavaskar trophy. The Boxing Day test.

A cool overcast day in Melbourne should provide good conditions for the bowlers. A reasonably fresh pitch should make the first session exciting. Australia's attacking batsmen (particularly Warner and Marsh) coming against Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma.

Sharma is the key for me. We know that Zaheer Khan is an outstanding bowler, but Sharma has been in patchy form recently, averaging 61.06 in his last 7 test matches with an appalling strike rate of 105.9. However Sharma has shown that he might be on the way back taking 22 wickets in the 3 matches against the West Indians at 26.22.

Cowan looks like the goods, and it will be interesting to see if he can replicate his recent form (hundreds in his last 3 first class matches) on his test debut.

The other big question for me will be how Ashwin will go later in the day. In his previous matches against Australia he has dismissed both Ponting and Hussey.

Some good bets:
David Warner 1st wicket $1.90
Australia to win $2.00 - India often start a series slowly - have a very bad record on green pitches
Top opening partnership India - $2.05 - much better conditions for them, combined with a more experienced lineup.
Ponting -60.6 $2.90 He's been in much better form than people think.

Preview - NZ Aus 2nd Test

Test two at Bellerive Oval, and things are difficult to predict.

The pitch in Hobart looks like it is going to be a minefield, but I think that the looks are going to be deceiving. They have used couch grass on the pitch, which sometimes looks very green, but actually doesn't bounce as much, and only gets sideways movement from short of a length (when a bowler bowls into a pitch not along it) and is not as dangerous when bowlers bowl full.

I'd expect Siddle to be more effective on this pitch than on the 'Gabba, as he bowled very well for little result, and his natural length will be better on this pitch.

The other thing to look for will be the swing. The ball traditionally swings when the tide is high at Hobart (similar to the coastal grounds in NZ). This should mean that there are a few wickets early on days 4 and 5. (High tide is 9:08 on Monday and 9:52 on Tuesday) The weather forecast is for bad weather this afternoon and tomorrow, but with the good light in Hobart the days are likely to be able to be extended on days 3, 4 & 5.

This means that it could be quite a stop-start day. This is not good for slow starters like Hughes and Williamson. It also might be a bad sign for Ponting, who has been brilliant at Bellerive traditionally, but who has also tended to struggle against inswing early in his innings.

Vettori is batting like a genius at the moment, and he is likely to get a lot of bowling as the pitch flattens out. Australia are likely to try and attack him more in this game, so he could be a good option for some wickets and runs.

Betting options:
First innings overs - This pitch is likely to flatten out very quickly, so once the toss happens and the odds are offered for the first innings total, go over.

Vettori player performance. 120 or over $1.87 - likely to take wickets and score runs.

New Zealand highest opening partnership $2.10 - Hughes is not very solid against Martin.

Taylor to score more the Khawaja $1.83 - I still don't rate Khawaja, and Taylor averages over 50 in the 2nd match of a series.

Preview - NZ Aus 1st Test

So it's time for the Trans-Tasman Trophy. I has been a long time since New Zealand actually beat Australia, but with the current Australian bowling lineup there is a slow dawning of hope in New Zealand that the boys can taste some success on the West Island.

The question is: how realistic is that hope?

New Zealand has been a graveyard for quality batsmen. There just have not been many come from here. At time of writing, only 10 players have played 10 or more games for NZ and averaged over 40. The rest of the world have produced 183. However of those 10, 2 are in the current team, as well as 2 more in the next 8 players. This is possibly the best batting line up New Zealand has ever had. The only possible exceptions are the team that contained Richardson, Fleming, Astle, McMillan and Cairns, or the team that contained Crowe, Reid, Wright and Coney. They are also all in form. In the last 2 matches every one of the top 6 have scored at least one hundred, and most have scored a fifty also. I read somewhere they over the last 4 innings they average 74. (I haven't checked this, but I'll trust the newspaper to be correct)

At the same time as New Zealand's batting is strong, Australia's bowlers are so inexperienced that some of the commentators are struggling to tell them apart. Because they have lost so many players it is hard to know how well they are going to play. What we saw in the warm up match was that despite New Zealand really going for their shots and playing risky shots they managed to score over 400 both innings. It will be interesting to see how this battle will go.

The other side is more settled. The Australian bating lineup has a couple of new faces, but is a lot more settled. The New Zealand bowling line up really only has one new face with only one of Bracewell or Boult likely to play. Bracewell has started his test career off encouragingly, while Boult has yet to make a debut, but has some good form in domestic cricket behind him. Southee enjoyed Brisbane last time, and is a much better bowler now. Martin has not been in a good run of form, but he has a very good record against left handers. Given that 4 of the top 6 batsmen in Australia are left handed, he might not be as ineffective as he has been in recent matches.

The Australian batsmen are generally high quality but under pressure. The scepter of all out for 46 will be hanging over their heads. Two of their batsmen (Hughes and Khawaja) average below 40, which is not something that we are accustomed to seeing from players that play the majority of their cricket in Australian conditions. The New Zealand bowlers will be smelling blood. However they may be going in confident, but they have not really demonstrated an ability to bowl teams out quickly. Over the last 2 years they have taken a wicket every 81 deliveries. To put this in context it means that it takes about 135 overs to bowl out a team. Given that there is about 450 overs in a test match, if New Zealand take 270 overs to bowl out Australia, there are only 180 left in the match for New Zealand to bat.

To add to this there is a forecast of rain for at least 2 of the days. If this forecast is correct the I see a result being entirely pitch dependent. Both teams having reasonable batting line ups and average bowling line ups means that they are both going to be unlikely to bowl each other out. Unless there is some real venom in the pitch then I think that $2.60 that Bet365 are paying for the draw is good money.

If I was looking for another couple of bets I'd look at Michael Clarke as the top run-scorer in Australia's first innings. He is right handed so nullifies Martin and (to a lesser degree) Boult. He bats at number 5, a position that New Zealand has great difficulty dismissing in recent time, and he has a great record against New Zealand, averaging over 60.

I would also look to put money on Williamson overs once he reaches 10. He gets out under 10 in more than half of his innings, but once he gets going it is rare for him to get out under 50.

So those are my thoughts and where I'm putting my 20c.

Possibility of an upset? Preview India vs West Indies Test 1

Two teams that have had a lot of draws against each other, and also a history of strange results.

India managed two series wins against the all-powerful West Indies of the 70's (in 1970/71 and 1978/79, but overall West Indies have dominated most series. India having won less than a quarter of the matches between the two teams.

There are a 4 things I am going to be watching for in this series:

1. Kirk Edwards vs Pragyan Ojha. Edwards was in dominating form in Bangladesh, but there is a difference between Bangladesh and India. The one weakness that he did show was that he got out LBW to left are spinners a few times. It will be interesting if Ojha sets a plan for this.

2. Divendra Bishoo. Bishoo has been a real star for West Indies, and has certainly managed to get me excited. He takes wickets by turning the ball, not just by putting it on the spot and making batsmen make a mistake. Not many spin bowlers have had any success against India, but Bishoo may be an exception.

3. Ravi Rampaul. It seems a strange decision to leave out Roach for Rampaul, but he was quite effective in the CLT20 tournament, and it will be interesting to see how the different lines that he bowls go against the aggressive Indian batsmen.

4. Yuvraj Singh. Yuvraj has traditionally had a weakness against short-pitched bowling, and this is probably the thing that West Indies is the most famous for. While Rampaul, Bishoo and Sammy are not likely to give him too many concerns, Fidel Edwards will be licking his lips with glee at the thought of bowling to Yuvraj.

Some thoughts on betting: Yuvraj to score less than the line is a good option, likewise Kirk Edwards to get out LBW. Also a draw seems to be the most likely result.

Quick preview 2nd Test Eng vs Ind

Just a couple of things that I notices, and a bit of quick tips for the gamblers out there.

Trent Bridge has been cruel on openers over the last few years, but it has produced lots of runs for batsmen batting at number 7.

Dhoni also has a great record in the second test of a series.

I'd look at Dhoni to score more than 40 here. I'd also look at Pietersen to do badly here, as he normally follows up a big score with a number of low ones.

I'd look closely at Prior to be the top scorer for England, and also for Dravid to be the top scorer for India, as he has good technique, and tends to shine on difficult pitches.

Odds, probability and winning records

As a task for my statistics students I often use tennis results to create probabilities for players to beat each other, and then get my students to construct a probability tree to find out the probability of each player winning a tournament. I normally tell them the semi finalists, or one game before the semi-finalits are found, to avoid the tree taking too long to construct. (It's better to spend that time thinking rather than writing in meaningless numbers).

The system is flawed in a number of ways, but mostly because the true probability of a player winning is much more complicated than just the sum of their previous results. Things like fitness, form, and surface make a big difference. And yet in some ways the data is the most accurate and most quantifiable that we have. Also often the person that we find the greatest probability for ends up winning the tournament.

I was having a conversation with someone about how I wanted England to beat Sri Lanka, because New Zealand had a much better record against England than Sri Lanka. It got me thinking that perhaps I could do what I have had my students do.

So I got the data for the last 10 years (the results from before that not really very relevant) and used them to generate some probabilities. The results were actually quite interesting. Here are the 5 most one sided match ups in terms of recent history:

Fot those of you for whom probability is a long way in the past, I've included odds on the favourite, which may be a more familiar way of measuring it. (I've assumed an even chance is at odds of $1.85, this differs between bookmakers)

Matchup	Prob.	Odds
NZ vs Eng	0.714	$1.30
Ind vs Eng	0.667	$1.39
SL vs NZ	0.615	$1.50
Ind vs SL	0.589	$1.57
Pak vs NZ	0.581	$1.59

The closest matchup is India vs Pakistan, with both teams having an even record over the last 10 years.

I then put that data into a probability tree, and came out with some interesting data.

Winner	Prob.	Odds
Ind	0.296	$3.13
Pak	0.278	$3.32
NZ	0.239	$3.87
SL	0.123	$7.49
Eng	0.063	$14.66

I also found out the probability of making the final:

Finalist	Prob.	Odds
NZ	0.564	$1.64
Ind	0.5	$1.85
Pak	0.5	$1.85
SL	0.28	$3.31
Eng	0.156	$5.94

The last step was to check these against the odds that actual bookies are offering. I used Bet365 and TAB New Zealand. Here were what they were offering:

Team	Bet365 Win	Bet365 Final	TAB NZ Win	TAB NZ Final
Ind	2.5	1.5	2.4	1.5
Pak	5	2.5	5	2.5
NZ	7.5	2.44	6.5	2.6
SL	4.55	2.25	4	2.15
Eng	9	4.5	9	4.5

There are obvious differences between these numbers and my ones. Part of that is due to the bookies having much more sophisticated methods to make their predictions than just historical wins/losses. Part of it also is that they are having to cover existing bets. A brief look at the numbers suggests that Bet365 are running lower margins on the winner than the NZ TAB, but that is reversed for the finalists.

I'm not sure that I want to make any predictions based on this data, except to suggest that if England beat Sri Lanka, back New Zealand to make the final.

Time to bet on Goliath?

The story of the young boy David felling the giant Goliath has resonated across many cultures for hundreds of years. The thought of the underdog triumphing over the gloating giant somehow warms our hearts. It has inspired artists to paint pictures, authors to write books, and musicians to write songs. One of my favourite is by Steve Apirana here, which I would recommend you play in the background, to provide some theme music to this preview.

So can Zimbabwe's David defeat the Goliath of Sri Lanka? Probably not.

However they do have some things going for them.

1. The match is at Pallekele. This ground looks like the real deal. A genuine Cricket ground, up in the mountains, with a nice bank, good facilities and an excellent pitch. It's a pitch that favours batsmen that take their time to get their eye in, and one that allows poor bowling to be punished.

Zimbabwe's batsmen certainly know how to take their time. 5 of their players have scored more than 100 runs at a strike rate of less than 60 in the last 2 years. But this big thing here is that it's a ground that seems to favour spin bowlers that get more bounce than spin. Bowlers like Price, Utseya and Lamb. Despite Sri Lanka being very good against spin, these are different spinners than they are used to.

2. Zimbabwe beat Sri Lanka recently. Within the last 12 months, the games have been 2-1 to Sri Lanka. And the one that Sri Lanka lost was convincing. Zimbabwe know that if things go well, then they are capable.

3. Chigumbura might actually fire. In the last 10 matches against Sri Lanka, Elton Chigumbura has scored 35 runs. 35 is a reasonable average, but a very bad total. However he has been beaten by spin in 7 of the 8 times that he's got out to a bowler. With spin less important in these conditions, It could be his turn. Finally.

However things are not all rosy. Here's some reasons that Sri Lanka can take heart.

4. The exception to the "spin bowlers don't take wickets at Pallekele" rule in Sri Lankan domestic cricket in Ajantha Mendis. He has not seemed to have the same worries. He also has an amazing record against Zimbabwe, averaging in single figures in 10 matches.

5. Nuwan Kulasekara Sri Lanka are known for their unorthodox bowlers, Mendis, Murali, Malinga, but Kulasekara hs the technique and patience that is perfect for undoing lesser players. And he bowls the sort of length that is likely to be rewarded in Pallekele. Watch out for him.

6. Upul Tharanga. Tharanga has seen Zimbabwe bowling as his meal ticket. He's scored 412 runs in 10 matches, almost 200 more than any other player in either team in those matches. And he looks hungry again tonight.

So my summary. There are reasons that Zimbabwe could win this game, but they are not convincing. If they are to win, they will need a good dose of luck.

If you are looking for somewhere to put your 20c, here are my suggestions. One almost sure bet would be for Sri Lanka to have the highest score after 15 overs, at $1.16. A slightly more risky, but at better odds is Tatenda Taibu to get 50 or more at $4.50. Taibu is good at playing when there is a bit of extra bounce, and so this pitch is likely to suit him.