Preview ODI 3, New Zealand vs South Africa, Seddon PArk, 2014

NZ will need to overcome ring rust today

One of the reasons Mike Tyson was such a champion boxer was that in his early days he had fantastic defence. As a result, he was able to fight every 6 weeks rather than every 3 months (like most heavyweight boxers do) because he wasn't getting hurt in the ring. Fighting so regularly meant that he never got "ring rust." Ring rust is a condition where boxers miss out on the little details that make a big difference. An uppercut that connects with the right timing, on the right part of the jaw, knocks someone out. An upper cut that lands slightly to the left or the right of that, or arrives 1/4 of a second later hurts the opponent, but doesn't finish the fight.

It doesn't matter how much you spar in the gym, or hit bags, you can only fix ring rust by time in the ring.  Often when you watch a boxing match between two top fighters, the first 2 rounds tell you very little about the way that the rest of the match will go, they only tell you who is the rustiest.

In this series, New Zealand have been rusty. Very rusty. The bowlers have not bowled the right lengths consistently. The fielder have missed at least 4 catches and 3 run outs. The batsmen have hit the ball to fielders rather than into gaps, and thrown away good starts.

South Africa, on the other hand, were playing 5 weeks ago. They look refreshed and eager. The bowlers have been (generally) hitting good lengths, and the batsmen have (generally) made the most of the starts when they have go them.

It's hard to suggest anything different is going to happen in Hamilton today. Amla had two lives before he got to 20, then he cashed in. His technique looks totally unsuited to opening the batting in New Zealand conditions (especially pre-Christmas), but his hand-eye co-ordination is so good that he dominates when he gets the chance. If New Zealand give him more opportunities through poor fielding, then he will (in all likelihood) do exactly the same in Hamilton.

Hamilton tends to be a difficult place to start batting. Matthew Hayden described it as the hardest place in the world to see the ball. However, he also carried his bat for 181 in a match there.

In the last 10 years about 59% of top order innings in Hamilton have scored 25 or less runs. That's on a par with the overall average (61%) but the interesting thing is that in the innings where a batsman reaches 25, they go on to do better. The overall average is 52.22 (so they get another 27.2 once they get to 25). The average in Hamilton is 58.35 (an extra 33.35). This is actually a very significant difference. Of the 132 grounds that have hosted ODI's in the past 10 years, only 5 have had more then 5 games and a higher average once a player gets to 25.

As a result, making the most of early chances is vital. It's where New Zealand's rustiness could come back to haunt them. Although, there is one thing that will work in their favour: the weather.

It is likely to rain in Hamilton today. As one of only two inland cities in New Zealand, it's one of the easiest places to forecast the weather for. The game is likely to get a small shower during the first innings, a small shower near the start of the second innings, and then be curtailed by rain. With the overhead conditions, both captains will probably want to bowl first, and that is likely to be an advantage. However, the rain is likely to mean that batsmen will have to re-start their innings after they get started, so the normal Hamilton pattern might not play ball.

Betting tips.

If I had $50 to bet on this match, here's where it would go:

1. $10 on NZ to win at $2.45

It's almost always a better idea to bowl first in an ODI, especially when there's a breeze and cloud cover. This is simply because of winning the toss

2. 2 x $10 Over on any South African batsman that gets to 25.

They all have such good hand eye co-ordination that once they get to 25, they are likely to score more than 60. Watch the live betting, and go over whatever line the TAB offer.

3. 2 x $10 Under for any New Zealand batsman that gets to 25.

They are all looking so rusty, that it feels likely that they will throw it away. Other than Luke Ronchi.

(All odds accurate at time of writing from the NZ TAB)

Mini-session Analysis, 3rd test, NZvWI, Seddon Park, Hamilton

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the third test between New Zealand and West Indies at Seddon Park, Hamilton

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-session analysis for 2nd Test NZ SA Hamilton 11/12

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the 2nd test between New Zealand and South Africa in Hamilton.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

1-1a	New Zealand 43/1 off 15	draw
1-1b	New Zealand 19/1 off 12	South Africa
1-2a	New Zealand 32/0 off 9.4	New Zealand
1-3a	New Zealand 39/2 off 13	South Africa
1-3b	New Zealand 52/6 off 11.4	South Africa
1-3c	South Africa 27/2 off 11	New Zealand
2-1a	South Africa 53/2 off 15	New Zealand
2-1b	South Africa 53/2 off 18	New Zealand
2-2a	South Africa 38/1 off 15	New Zealand
2-2b	South Africa 82/3 off 18.3	South Africa
2-3a	New Zealand 22/3 off 13	South Africa
2-3b	New Zealand 43/1 off 18	South Africa
3-1a	New Zealand 24/0 off 14	Draw
3-1b	New Zealand 53/2 off 18	South Africa
3-2a	New Zealand 26/4 off 4.5	South Africa
	South Africa 47/1 off 10
3-2b	South Africa 56/0 off 9.5	South Africa

South Africa win the count 9-5. I awarded 2-2b to South Africa, despite it going to New Zealand by the formula. With South Africa at 185/8 New Zealand were looking good, but 66 runs for the last 2 wickets has been very costly. I think that South Africa are well ahead in the match. Likewise I gave the first hour on the third day as a draw. New Zealand didn't lose any wickets, but hardly scored any runs. In the context of the match, they did well to survive the difficult conditions in the morning, but neither team advanced their cause at all.

The match ebbed and flowed a couple of times. at 133/2 New Zealand were really looking good. Then at 133/7 it was hard to see New Zealand even making the game close. However at 86/6 South Africa looked like they had thrown away a golden opportunity. They took back the impetus with some great lower order hitting, and carried that advantage for the rest of the match.

Hamilton

Here are a few things to watch for in Hamilton:

1. The toss. There have only been 5 times that the team that won the toss at Hamilton lost the game. 4 of those were when the team that won the toss chose to bat. It is normally a bowl first pitch.

2. Brendan McCullum. He is the king of Hamilton, averaging 90 at a strike rate of 102 there. However, very few players have played many ODI innings there, so there is not a large sample of players with reliable figures.

3. Openening Batsmen. Despite Mathew Hayden saying once that Hamilton was the hardest place in the world to bat, he scored 181* in his only ODI at the ground. Generally it tends to favour aggressive opening batsmen, Ryder and Sehwag also have done well there.

4. 6's. There is an average of 1 6 hit every 41 deliveries at Hamilton (over the last 10 years). This is about 14 per match. This is the most in NZ, which is surprising, as it's one of the largest grounds in NZ. (it's also the ground where Andre Adams won a game for Auckland, despite needing 12 off the last delivery. He hit a 6 off a no ball, then a 6 off the next ball)

5. Swing bowling. The bowlers that have done the best at this ground are swing bowlers. (and Andre Adams) Johnson, Mills, Tuffey and Martin all have good records here. Look for Mills, Southee, Umar Gul and Sohail Tanvir to all be amongst the wickets. (especially in the humid post-cyclonic conditions)

6. Lots of runs and wickets. This ground normally provides a fair contest between bat and ball, where batsmen get full value for aggressive shots, but bowlers get reward by bowling an attacking line. That makes it pretty much the perfect cricket ground. Interestingly when the ground plays badly the team that bats first tends to win more often. There is only twice that a team has won after scoring more than 225 batting first.

Betting suggestions: (Bet365 isn't cooperating today, so odds are from tab.co.nz)

1. More than 10.5 6's in the match, $1.85
2. Brendan McCullum to be top innings scorer, $7.00
3. Ryder more than 24.5, $1.90
4. New Zealand to win (after winning the toss and bowling), $1.75