Mini-session Analysis, India vs England, Ahmedabad 2012/3

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the first test between India and England at Sardar Patel Stadium, Ahmedabad, India

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	India 61/0 off 13	India
1-1b	India 59/0 off 15	India
1-2a	India 70/1 off 15	India
1-2b	India 60/2 off 15	England
1-3a	India 32/0 off 17	draw
1-3b	India 41/1 off 15	England
2-1a	India 44/0 off 16	India
2-1b	India 43/0 off 15	India
2-2a	India 37/2 off 16	England
2-2b	India 55/0 off 15	India
2-3a	India 19/2 off 8	England
2-3b	England 41/3 off 18	India
3-1a	England 29/2 off 17	India
3-1b	England 40/2 off 17	India
3-2a	England 34/1 off 14.4	India
3-2b	England 47/2 off 7.4	draw
3-3a	England 53/0 off 18	England
3-3b	England 58/0 off 20	England
4-1a	England 32/1 off 16	India
4-1b	England 39/2 off 15	India
4-2a	England 42/2 off 14	India
4-2b	England 40/0 off 17	England
4-3a	England 49/0 off 15	England
4-3b	England 27/0 off 13	England
5-1a	England 25/2 off 13.3	India
5-1b	England 41/3 off 13	India
5-2a	India 80/1 off 15.3	India

Latest update, click here

First drinks, Day 1: India lead the mini-session count 1-0

India won the toss, and then took immediate advantage. Sehwag showed that he's not really in such bad form as people have said that he is.

Lunch, Day 1: India lead the mini-session count 2-0

If India's batting isn't enough of a worry for England (and it should be), the turn that Samit Patel and Graeme Swann have managed to get on the first day would be. While the turn is reasonably slow, it will get more and more tricky as the game continues.

India, on the other hand will be hoping for more Diwali foreworks from Sehwag and Gambhir.

Tea, Day 1: India lead the mini-session count 3-1

England finally have something go their way. Swann had a good battle with Gambhir. Gambhir was trying to cut, Swann was trying to cramp him. Eventually one slipped through and Swann had his man. Then Swann picked up two big scalps, Sehwag and Tendalkur.

There had been a train of thought that there was no point in bowling spin against India because thier batsmen had such good techniques against spin. Jeetan Patel proved that wrong in picking up 7 in the last series India played. Quality spin still gets out batsmen with a good technique against spin, and Graeme Swann is a quality spinner. India still hold the cards, but not as convincingly.

Final drinks, Day 1: India lead the mini-session count 3-1

Pretty much nothing happened in the last hour other than a dropped catch that Trott claimed.

Stumps, Day 1: India lead the mini-session count 3-2

England have done well to come back into the game, but they are still behind. India will be disappointed with some of the shot selection, but happy with the overall progress. It's good to see Yuvraj Singh back in the side, and looking good.

Stumps, Day 2: India lead the mini-session count 7-4

India win another day. It wasn't as comprehensive as the scorecard suggests, but it wasn't far off it. Nick Compton struggled to score against the spinners, and will seriously need to look at how he is going to turn over the strike if he wants to make it at international level. Ashwin and Ojha are good bowlers, but they turn into great bowlers if you allow them to settle in and dictate terms. Speaking from personal experience, even a bad spin bowler can become very effective against a one dimensional batsman who doesn't enforce their will, and just allows things to happen. Alastair Cook on the other hand was looking reasonably comfortable. Hardly any bad balls did not end up at the boundary, and he moved his feet well. Umesh Yadav must be wondering if he's actually playing this test, as he has yet to bat or bowl.

First drinks, Day 3: India lead the mini-session count 8-4

England's batsmen again managed to find out ways to get out to spin. Cook was lucky to survive an lbw appeal, in what seems to be Tony Hill's attempt to get India to embrace the DRS.

Lunch, Day 3: India lead the mini-session count 9-4

All over England people are waking up to the bad news that their team are in serious trouble. The ball is dominating the bat as much as the bat dominated the ball when India was batting.

Middle drinks, Day 3: India lead the mini-session count 10-4

A good partnership ends with a great delivery. England are going to have to have some big runs from the tail if they want to avoid the follow-on.

Stumps, Day 3: India lead the mini-session count 10-6

After India enforced the follow on, England's openers have negotiated the final session. Nick Compton is still too slow for my liking. I feel that rotating the strike is an important part of a solid defense. Dhoni made an interesting decision to open with Ojha and Yadav rather than Ashwin and Zaheer Khan. I'm not sure that Ojha is suited to bowling with the new ball as much as Ashwin is.

First drinks, Day 4: India lead the mini-session count 11-6

Cook continued to stand strong, but Compton continued to struggle to score. There's nothing wrong with a solid defence, but the object of batting is still scoring runs.

Lunch, Day 4: India lead the mini-session count 12-6

Apparently Kevin Pietersen wants us to believe that doesn't have a problem against left arm spin. Perhaps he would be more convincing if he stops getting out to left arm spinners in really bad ways.

Middle drinks, Day 4: India lead the mini-session count 13-6

Samit Patel will probably be thinking bad thoughts about Tony Hill. He's been given out to two terrible lbw decisions. He'll probably not remember the plumb one that Aleem Dar gave not out.

Tea, Day 4: India lead the mini-session count 13-7

Prior and Cook have batted well again. They were probably the two best in the first innings and they are again showing that they have the right technique and temperment to bat in India. It's probably too little too late however.

Final drinks, Day 4: India lead the mini-session count 13-8

Another good hour from Cook and Prior. Apparently Prior has gotten a new bat for this series with the weight lower than the one he normally uses, in order to counter the lower bounce on the pitches in India. If it's true then it's really good thinking.

Stumps, Day 4: India lead the mini-session count 13-9

This is a fantastic partnership. England now have a realistic chance of saving this match. They probably need another 200 runs tomorrow, but this parntership is going so well, and the tail is sufficiently strong, that it is not out of the realms of probability.

First drinks, Day 5: India lead the mini-session count 14-9

India have made the two crucial breakthroughs. Firstly Prior then Cook. England's tail is going to have to bat very well now to save the match.

Lunch, Day 5: India lead the mini-session count 15-9

India have had a good morning, and cleaned up the tail well. The question now is how quickly they can score the runs.

End of match India win the mini-session count 16-9

Cheteshwar Pujara has had a fantastic match, and it was appropriate that he was not out at the end. This time opening against one of the best new ball combinations in the world, and he didn't look even slightly troubled. It's easier batting with no scorebaord pressure, but you still need to score the runs.

Despite a good fightback from Cook and Prior, this was a decisive victory for India. The big question for them will be how their bowlers recover from such a big workload for the next test. England on the other hand have some serious questions to answer.

Mini-session Analysis 2nd test Eng WI Trent Bridge 12

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the second test between England and the West Indies at Trent Bridge, Nottingham, England.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	West Indies 42/3 off 14.3	England
1-1b	West Indies 41/1 off 12.3	West Indies
1-2a	West Indies 33/0 off 17	draw
1-2b	West Indies 38/2 off 13	England
1-3a	West Indies 70/0 off 16	West Indies
1-3b	West Indies 80/0 off 17	West Indies
2-1a	West Indies 37/2 off 12.2	England
2-1b	West Indies 29/2 off 7	West Indies
	England 8/0 off 5
2-2a	England 43/1 off 14	draw
2-2b	England 72/0 off 15	England
2-3a	England 67/1 off 14	England
2-3b	England 69/0 off 20	England
3-1a	England 41/2 off 14	West Indies
3-3b	England 40/2 off 12	West Indies
3-2a	England 33/1 off 15	West Indies
3-2b	England 55/3 off 14.4	England
3-3a	West Indies 42/3 off 14	England
3-3b	West Indies 19/3 off 12	England
4-1a	West Indies 49/0 off 15	West Indies
4-1b	West Indies 31/2 off 12	England
4-2a	West Indies 20/2 off 7.1	England
4-2b	England 74/0 off 21	England
4-3a	England 37/1 off 9.4	England

Final Summary: West Indies lose the mini-session count 13-8, and lose the match comprehensively too. England outplayed West Indies for the majority of the match, and (while there were three particular hours that were particularly decisive) deserved their win.

Marlon Samuels played what was possibly the match of his life, but it was to no avail. He top scored in both innings, and had the best match figures of the West Indians with the ball. It's not often that a player scores 193 runs for only one dismissal, and takes 3/32, and doesn't win man of the match. It's arguable that Bresnan's 8/140 was a better performance, but it's not arguable that he was decisive in winning the match for England.

England's bowlers again took the pace off the ball to good effect, generally making their breakthroughs with slower deliveries. People often say there's no substitute for pace. However I believe that pace is over-rated. You don't need to be break-neck speed, you just need to be fast enough. England have shown us this again.

Stumps, day 3: England lead 9-7. And they are well in the lead in the match too. West Indies are effectively 3/6, but they have the two heroes of the first innings at the crease. However there are a couple of things in their favour.

Firstly Kemar Roach seemed to rediscover his touch (and run up), and the pitch is starting to get a bit two paced, which could make Shillingford a real handful. If West Indies can manage to get another 170, we could be in for a great day 5 finish. Sammy himself could be a dangerous bowler, given that 14 of the 26 wickets to have fallen so far in this test have been to deliveries bowled slower than 130km/h (80.77mph for those of you who still use a measurement system based on the width of a horse's backside)

But before they get to have a crack at the English batsmen, they need to survive the English bowlers. Anderson is doing what Steyn has done very well recently: changing his pace to find the pace where the ball moves the most. He is capable of bowling over 140km/h, but all his wickets today were less than 130km/h. Likewise Bresnan was significantly down on pace, but was more dangerous than ever. Ian Chappell once said that he was always worried playing against a bowler who he felt was holding back his pace. Akram, Hadlee, McGrath and Pollock all became much better bowlers once they dropped their pace a bit, and reserved the quicker ball for once every couple of overs. However it seems that bowlers that get the most benefit out of it are ones who start off with a reputation for pace or bounce, and that's probably where the English trio are at now in their careers. This could be another step along the road of them becoming one of the all time great bowling attacks, or it could just be a good session, where they took wickets despite not having their normal zip.

It's a normal cliche, but the morning session is huge for the West Indies. They probably need to get to drinks after lunch tomorrow one or none down. If they do then they have given themselves a chance to get back into the test. However I feel that them doing that is somewhat unlikely, and we are more likely to see a fairly comprehensive English victory.

Lunch, day 3: All tied up 6-6. And that really tells the story. West Indies have stormed back into the game. The pitch seems to have freshened up over night, and now West Indies have the chance to clean up the tail and take the lead in the match.

Stumps, day 2: England lead the count 6-4. They also are ahead in the match. West Indies are paying the price for missing the two chances earlier.

The battle between Trott and Sammy continued, with this round going to Trott, who scored at better than a run a ball against him. But the highlights were another magnificent hundred from Strauss and an attacking innings of true class from Pietersen. They have taken back any initiative that West Indies had, and left England in a commanding position. For all my complaints about Sammy being too eager to defend the boundaries, today England found the boundary often. However, that was largely due to the wider lines that West Indies bowled. Captaining a team who are not bowling well is a difficult task.

West Indies will want to remove at least one of these before drinks tomorrow, then have another go with the new ball, and hope that this time Roach can get his run up sorted out.

Middle drinks, day 2: West Indies still lead the count 4-3. They again gave Cook a life, but it was 3rd time a charm and Rampaul has his first wicket of the series. West Indies have bowled a very good containing line, keeping the ball outside the off stump and making the English chase the ball if they want to score.

Lunch, day 2: West Indies leads the count 4-3. West Indies managed to just sneak that hour, however they made what could turn out to be a very costly mistake when Roach had Cook caught off a no ball. It will be interesting to see if England make the West Indies pay for their mistake.

First drinks break, day 2: The mini-session count is tied up 3-3. West Indies started well, but then in a couple of overs lost both established batsmen, and England are back. Sammy has got his hundred, and will be happy about that, but a really big score was probably on offer here.

Stumps, day 1: West Indies lead 3-2. It appears that the job of West Indies top 4 is to see off the shine, so that the next 4 can score the runs. Sammy is in uncharted territory here. Despite being thought of as an all-rounder, he has never scored more than 75 runs in a test match before, let alone a test innings. In fact he is only 7 runs short of his second highest score in first class cricket. He survived a few wobbles, particularly against Anderson, but he has made it to stumps. If he continues to bat like this he could easily take the game away from England. The most impressive thing about his innings was the patient start. He commented in the post match interview from the last test that he felt that he wasn't patient enough, and her certainly learned from that in this test.

A nice little sidelight has been the battle of the medium pacers. In the last test Trott faced 52 balls from Sammy, and scored 24 before getting out to him. This test Sammy has faced 16 balls so far from Trott and scored 19. It's like Sammy rises to the occasion when he is facing another medium pacer, with the bat or ball.

West Indies are in a very strong position. This is the 29th time a team has scored over 300 batting first at Trent Bridge. Of those 29 matches, the team batting first has won 12, drawn 15 and lost just 2. The first session tomorrow will be incredibly important. If West Indies manages to see off the new ball and fresh pitch, England could be in for a morale-sapping day. If, however, they make an early break-through there is not a great deal of batting left, and England could be batting before lunch.

Lunch, day 1: The mini-sessions are all tied up, but England are well in control. The Samuels-Chanderpaul combination are back together again, but a lot earlier than West Indies would have wanted.

First drinks break, day 1: England will be thoroughly pleased with this start. The West Indies will not be. Chanderpaul is not keen on batting before lunch, but he has had to again.

Mini-session analysis for 2nd Test SL Eng Colombo 2012

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the 2nd test between Sri Lanka and England in Colombo.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

1-1a	Sri Lanka 48/3 off 12	England
1-1b	Sri Lanka 34/0 off 15	Sri Lanka
1-2a	Sri Lanka 29/0 off 14.1	Sri Lanka
1-2b	Sri Lanka 44/1 off 13.5	Sri Lanka
1-3a	Sri Lanka 46/0 off 16	Sri Lanka
1-3b	Sri Lanka 37/2 off 19	England
2-1a	Sri Lanka 23/2 off 13.2	England
2-1b	Sri Lanka 14/2 off 7.5	England
	England 11/0 off 4
2-2a	England 38/0 off 16	England
2-2b	England 34/0 off 16	England
2-3a	England 39/0 off 14	England
2-3b	England 32/1 off 16	draw
3-1a	England 39/0 off 15	England
3-1b	England 46/1 off 12	England
3-2a	England 77/1 off 17	England
3-2b	England 36/1 off 11	England
3-3a	England 59/2 off 13.5	England
3-3b	England 49/4 off 18.4	Sri Lanka
	Sri Lanka 4/0 off 1
4-1a	Sri Lanka 45/1 off 13	Sri Lanka
4-1b	Sri Lanka 35/1 off 13	England
4-2a	Sri Lanka 27/1 off 14	England
4-2b	Sri Lanka 28/1 off 15	England
4-3a	Sri Lanka 41/0 off 16	Sri Lanka
4-3b	Sri Lanka 38/2 off 19	England
5-1a	Sri Lanka 29/2 off 14	England
5-1b	Sri Lanka 31/2 off 13.5	England
5-2a	England 76/2 off 18	England
5-2b	England 21/0 off 1.4	England

England win the count 20-7. I changed 2-3b to a draw after chatting on twitter with Bandon Decker

Final wrap-up England win the test deservedly. They dominated the majority of the match and only Jayawardene stood between them and an innings victory.

First drinks break day 5: England have played Sri Lanka out of the match this morning. Swann has bowled a menacing spell, and has really made up for his poor showing in UAE.

I can't remember a test match being won by more than 8 mini-sessions, so Sri Lanka are on the verge of one of the most convincing losses of the year.

End of day 4: With 2 overs to go, that mini-session was looking like a draw. 2 quick wickets and it's a clear advantage to England. However despite the loss of 6 wickets, due to the use of 2 night watchmen, Sri Lanka still have some batting left. Prasana Jayawardene is coming in at number 9; possibly the best number 9 since this match.

If Sri Lanka can put together another 120 runs, they might leave England a chase of about 150 at about 5 an over. That is a mouthwatering prospect.

Post-tea drinks day 4: Jayawardene really flicked the switch there. From 27 off 88 he scored at roughly 75, attacking sensibly. If he stays there and keeps batting like that, Sri Lanka actually have a chance of winning. Both of these are big "ifs" with the new ball almost due.

Tea day 4: England have the foot on the throat now. These two are still capable of saving the match, but that is what Sri Lanka are looking for now, the idea of the win is likely to be out the window. I feel that anytime a team starts looking for a draw before tea on day 4 they are going to lose.

Lunch day 4: This match is actually quite intriguing. It's got that old school feel. What a pity there isn't a third test.

End of day 3: England are well in the lead now. The Sri Lankan bowling was toothless, Herath picked up his third consecutive 6 wicket bag, but it took 31 overs before he got his first one. He completed his 6 by doing some rabbit hunting when the English were trying to increase the scoring rate, but it was hardly incisive bowling.

Sri Lanka still have a chance to win this game. The pitch is breaking up, Sri Lankan batsmen are likely to be better at batting in these conditions than the English, but they are so far behind that it will really take a big day from them.

End of day 2: This test match is like a throw back to the 70's. Scoring at 2.3 an over, openers doggedly refusing to get out, a sub-continental team using their quick bowlers simply to take the shine off the ball. It is all so unusual. There is even the possibility of the match finishing in a draw now. It is all just so unfamiliar.

Lunch day 2: This game is all set up now. It will be interesting to see how England's batsmen cope with the Sri Lankan spinners. The pitch seems to be doing some crazy things occasionally already. Will England be able to cope with it? If they can, then it will be a hard slog for Sri Lanka to win the game.

End of day 1: This test has not advanced as much as we are used to tests advancing recently. Both teams have been patient, and this could be a really interesting match.

Mini-session analysis for 1st Test SL Eng Galle 2012

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the 1st test between Sri Lanka and England in Galle.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

1-1a	Sri Lanka 29/3 off 13	England
1-1b	Sri Lanka 37/0 off 17	Sri Lanka
1-2a	Sri Lanka 47/1 off 16	draw
1-2b	Sri Lanka 55/1 off 15	Sri Lanka
1-3a	Sri Lanka 60/2 off 13	Sri Lanka
1-3b	Sri Lanka 61/1 off 16	Sri Lanka
2-1a	Sri Lanka 30/2 off 6.3	England
	England 31/1 off 8
2-1b	England 26/2 off 8	Sri Lanka
2-2a	England 64/3 off 14	Sri Lanka
2-2b	England 72/4 off 16.4	Sri Lanka
2-3a	Sri Lanka 21/3 off 10	England
2-3b	Sri Lanka 63/2 off 24	England
3-1a	Sri Lanka 31/2 off 16.5	England
3-1b	Sri Lanka 36/1 off 15.1	England
3-2a	Sri Lanka 56/1 off 14	Sri Lanka
3-2b	Sri Lanka 7/1 off 4.3	England
	England 27/0 off 7
3-3a	England 42/2 off 17	Sri Lanka
3-3b	England 42/0 off 16	England
4-1a	England 34/1 off 15	Sri Lanka
4-1b	England 32/1 off 15	Sri Lanka
4-2a	England 51/0 off 15	England
4-2b	England 31/4 off 12.5	Sri Lanka
4-3a	England 5/2 off 1.1	Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka win the Mini-session count 13-9.

The more the game went on, the more evident it is that Jayawardene played one of the all time great innings to carry Sri Lanka through to a good score in the first innings.

England probably were in the lead before Prior got out. It seemed that the pitch was one where it was difficult to get in on, but once someone was in it was hard to dislodge them. Prior went to a piece of bad luck, and then England crumbled not long after that.

Mini-session analysis for 3rd Test NZ SA Wellington 11/12

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the 3rd test between New Zealand and South Africa in Wellington.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

1-2a	South Africa 55/1 off 15	South Africa
1-2b	South Africa 48/0 off 18	South Africa
1-3a	South Africa 33/1 off 9	South Africa
2-2a	South Africa 37/0 off 14	South Africa
2-2b	South Africa 49/0 off 16	South Africa
2-3a	South Africa 24/0 off 7	South Africa
3-1a	South Africa 60/1 off 15.2	South Africa
3-1b	South Africa 56/0 off 19.4	South Africa
3-2a	South Africa 30/3 off 13	New Zealand
3-2b	South Africa 45/1 off 14	draw
3-3a	South Africa 37/2 off 7.4	South Africa
	New Zealand 24/0 off 13
3-3b	New Zealand 41/0 off 12	New Zealand
4-1a	New Zealand 49/1 off 17	New Zealand
4-1b	New Zealand 31/2 off 16.2	South Africa
4-2a	New Zealand 36/0 off 11.4	New Zealand
4-2b	New Zealand 50/1 off 14	New Zealand
4-3a	New Zealand 44/5 off 12	South Africa
4-3b	South Africa 75/0 off 15	South Africa
5-1a	South Africa 114/3 off 14.4	South Africa
5-1b	New Zealand 26/2 off 15	South Africa
5-2a	New Zealand 20/1 off 13	New Zealand
5-2b	New Zealand 57/2 off 15	South Africa
5-3a	New Zealand 41/0 off 15	New Zealand
5-3b	New Zealand 56/1 off 22.4	New Zealand

South Africa win the count 15-8.

New Zealand survive for a glorious draw.

Preview NZ SA 3rd Test Wellington 11/12

It's not often that a third test is as much of a mystery as this one. New Zealand have made large changes to their lineup, changing both the opening batting combination, and also (potentially) the balance of the side. South Africa look solid, and have been a class above New Zealand, but there are still some questions.

The Basin Reserve often thrown up interesting events. It's often a place where the balance switches between batting and bowling teams throughout the day (for more info, see Batting against New Zealand at the Basin Reserve

Going on that previous information, I'd suggest that this could actually be the best test for New Zealand to abandon their 4 bowler, 1 all rounder policy (which I am generally in favour of) and return to a 3 bowler, 1 all rounder line-up.

It's really a horrible test for Flynn to make his come back in, particularly if he is playing as an opener. He has been in good form, but form means little early in the day in Wellington on a green pitch.

The players that tend to do best in Wellington are the players who come in to bat in the afternoon, when the bowlers are tired from running into the wind. As a result if I was going to bet on this match I'd look at batsmen like Jacques Rudolph, Daniel Vettori and Dean Brownlie to be the top scorers. It's also good for players who play cross batted shots well, so Van Wyk and Boucher could also do well.

Bracewell's no ball problem?

In 9 innings Doug Bracewell has 3 times taken a wicket off a no ball.

In his first test he had Regis Chakabva out off a no ball. It was picked up on the TV replay.

In his second test he bowled Michael Clarke, but then Asad Rauf checked upstairs and Clarke was recalled.

Yesterday he had Jaques Rudolph out plumb lbw, but the delivery turned out to be a no ball.

Given this it would be fair to expect that he was bowling no balls left, right and centre. So it's a bit of a surprise to see that he has only bowled 13 no balls in 131 overs. That's roughly one no ball every 60 deliveries. It's just that three of his no balls have been particularly costly.

It leaves three interesting possibilities.

1. When he bowls a no ball, the difference in where the ball comes from makes more of a difference to the batsman than seems likely. It's hard to see this being the case, but 3 wickets in 13 balls is fairly compelling.

2. He bowls more no balls than this, but because other deliveries are not checked they are not picked up. If the third umpire was checking all deliveries then perhaps he would bowl a lot more.

3. The way he runs might make it difficult for umpires to pick up his foot position. This might be the reason that none of these 3 balls were picked up by the umpires, and it required the 3rd umpire each time.

Mini-session analysis for 1st Test NZ SA Dunedin 11/12

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the 1st test between New Zealand and South Africa in Dunedin.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

1-1a	South Africa 51/1 off 13	South Africa
1-1b	South Africa 35/0 off 13	South Africa
1-2a	South Africa 69/3 off 15	New Zealand
1-2b	South Africa 36/3 off 18	New Zealand
2-1a	South Africa 47/3 off 9.2	New Zealand
2-1b	New Zealand 40/1 off 16	South Africa
2-2a	New Zealand 57/1 off 17	New Zealand
2-2b	New Zealand 47/3 off 19	South Africa
2-3a	New Zealand 40/0 off 14	New Zealand
2-3b	New Zealand 59/4 off 20	South Africa
3-1a	New Zealand 30/1 off 2.2	New Zealand
	South Africa 49/2 off 14
3-1b	South Africa 39/0 off 15	South Africa
3-2a	South Africa 51/0 off 13	South Africa
3-2b	South Africa 36/0 off 14	South Africa
3-3a	South Africa 50/0 off 18	South Africa
3-3b	South Africa 43/1 off 15	New Zealand
4-1a	South Africa 41/1 off 17	New Zealand
4-1b	South Africa 50/1 off 18	South Africa
4-2a	South Africa 76/0 off 16	South Africa
4-2b	New Zealand 27/1 off 11	South Africa
4-3a	New Zealand 54/1 off 17	New Zealand
4-3b	New Zealand 56/0 off 13	New Zealand

The final count is 12-10 to South Africa.

There were 4 very close mini-sessions, but South Africa were certainly ahead when the rain came.

Now England will have a little longer being at the top of the world. (Potentially a lot longer if the Pakistan series turns out to be just an aberration.) We will have to wait another week or so to know what shape this test series is going to take, and we get an opportunity for a repeat of last tour's 1-1-1 result.

The match has left more questions than answers for me so far. It will be interesting to see how South Africa handle the conditions in Hamilton. The pitch there has fluctuated wildly from test to test, but it is normally quite sticky and often swing bowlers flourish there. It could be more to Steyn's liking and less to Philander's.

Mini-session analysis for 3rd Test Pak Eng Dubai 11/12

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the 3rd test between Pakistan and England in Dubai.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

1-1a	Pakistan 21/5 off 10.5	England
1-1b	Pakistan 32/2 off 15.1	England
1-2a	Pakistan 42/2 off 16	England
1-2b	Pakistan 4/1 off 2.1	Pakistan
	England 19/2 off 8
1-3a	England 51/1 off 15	England
1-3b	England 34/3 off 20	Pakistan
2-1a	England 37/4 off 12	Pakistan
2-1b	Pakistan 30/2 off 15	England
2-2a	Pakistan 45/0 off 20	Pakistan
2-2b	Pakistan 45/0 off 16	Pakistan
2-3a	Pakistan 60/0 off 17	Pakistan
2-3b	Pakistan 42/0 off 14	Pakistan
3-1a	Pakistan 27/1 off 14	England
3-1b	Pakistan 46/0 off 18	Pakistan
3-2a	Pakistan 36/0 off 16	Pakistan
3-2b	Pakistan 19/5 off 12	England
3-3a	Pakistan 15/2 off 10.4	England
3-3b	England 36/0 off 20	Pakistan
4-1a	England 25/1 off 13	Pakistan
4-1b	England 28/1 off 16	Pakistan
4-2a	England 40/2 off 17	Pakistan
4-2b	England 44/2 off 14	Pakistan
4-3a	England 57/2 off 10	England
4-3b	England 22/2 off 7.3	Pakistan

Pakistan won the mini-session count 14-10.

England fought hard, but ultimately it was Pakistan's test to lose today, and they didn't let their feet off the throat. The innings of Younis Khan and Azhar Ali won this match for Pakistan. The rest of their batsmen contributed only 69 in the second innings. The margin of Pakistan's victory was less than either of their innings.

Preview - 3rd Test Pak Eng Dubai 11/12

The third test. A dead rubber, but one with a lot to play for.

Pakistan have the chance to really stamp their authority on England. They are starting to look like they are a team that is capable of reaching the top of world cricket.

England however got in a winning position in the last game, and then dropped it badly. Now they get their chance to get something out of this tour. If England lose this, then They create an opening for South Africa to take over the number 1 spot in the world rankings.

Individual players are also under some pressure. Younis Khan, Andrew Strauss, Eion Morgan, Keven Pietersen and Ian Bell have all yet to make a mark with the bat, and Graeme Swann has mostly been ineffective with the ball.

The pitch sounds interesting, apparently it has a good covering of grass, and so it could provide some early assistance for the English seamers. Ironically the bowler who might be the most important cog in the wheel in this match is Jonathan Trott. His seam-up's may prove to be vital for England.

Betting tips:

Normally my advice is "don't bet on matches involving Pakistan, they are too unpredictable." That advice still holds.

However if you really wanted to put your money somewhere, try Taufeeq Umar under 38.5 at $1.57. He is in average form, there's some grass on the wicket, and Broad and Anderson are great bowlers.

Also England to have a 1st innings lead at $1.90 is not a bad look, given that the best batting conditions are likely to be on days 2 and 3.

Mini-session analysis for only Test NZ ZIM 11/12

Here is the mini-session analysis for the test between New Zealand and Zimbabwe at Napier.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	New Zealand 68/0 off 14	New Zealand
1-1b	New Zealand 30/0 off 14	New Zealand
1-2a	New Zealand 33/2 off 12	Zimbabwe
1-2b	New Zealand 63/0 off 16	New Zealand
1-3a	New Zealand 56/2 off 14	Zimbabwe
1-3b	New Zealand 81/1 off 21	New Zealand
2-1a	New Zealand 53/0 off 14	New Zealand
2-1b	New Zealand 8/0 off 1.2	-
3-1a	New Zealand 94/2 off 18.2	New Zealand
3-1b	Zimbabwe 20/5 off 15	New Zealand
3-2a	Zimbabwe 30/3 off 13	New Zealand
3-2b	Zimbabwe 13/5 off 10	New Zealand
3-3a	Zimbabwe 51/3 off 14	New Zealand
3-3b	Zimbabwe 80/4 off 25.3	New Zealand

New Zealand win the match by an innings and 301 runs, and the mini-session count 11-2. I didn't award either team a mini-session for the 8 deliveries in 2-1b. I also awarded Zimbabwe 1-3a. That mini-session was right on the border, and fell on NZ's side in my normal formula by 1 run, however I felt that Zimbabwe slightly edged it.

Zimbabwe's tail wagged well today, but their top order was appalling twice. Both innings their final 5 wickets provided more than their first 5. Chris Martin looks like he is well in form. Pity for him that it is the only test in the series.

Mini-session analysis for 2nd Test Pak Eng 11/12

Here is the mini-session analysis for the 2nd test between Pakistan and England in Abu Dhabi. I will be updating this from time to time throughout the match. (It is not in a good timezone for me to do it regularly)

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	Pakistan 41/0 off 15	Pakistan
1-1b	Pakistan 32/2 off 16	England
1-2a	Pakistan 47/2 off 17	England
1-2b	Pakistan 57/0 off 17	Pakistan
1-3a	Pakistan 27/1 off 15	England
1-3b	Pakistan 52/2 off 14	England
2-1a	Pakistan 1/3 off 2.4	England
	England 25/0 off 12
2-1b	England 23/1 off 12	Pakistan
2-2a	England 48/0 off 13	England
2-2b	England 36/0 off 17	England
2-3a	England 42/1 off 17	Pakistan
2-3b	England 31/3 off 16.5	Pakistan
3-1a	England 53/1 off 14.1	England
3-1b	England 63/2 off 12	Pakistan
3-2a	England 4/2 off 1	Pakistan
	Pakistan 29/1 off 11.4
3-2b	Pakistan 25/2 off 15.2	England
3-3a	Pakistan 36/1 off 18	England
3-3b	Pakistan 35/0 off 16	Pakistan
4-1a	Pakistan 37/1 off 18	England
4-1b	Pakistan 36/2 off 13	England
4-2a	Pakistan 16/3 off 7.2	England
4-2b	England 39/4 off 22	Pakistan
4-3a	England 32/4 off 13.4	Pakistan
4-3b	England 1/2 off 0.3	Pakistan

Pakistan win the match, despite England winning the count 13-11.

Finally a good test match. A disappointing ending, it would have been great if England could have put together one more partnership and really taken it to the wire.

Preview - Pak Eng 2nd Test Abu Dhabi 11/12

The first test was a big surprise.

I was honestly surprised by how well Hafeez batted, and how poorly England batted.

The big question now is if it was an aberration or a forming trend. England looked horrible in the ODI matches in India, but they often look horrible in ODI matches. This is because they are an awful ODI team. But perhaps it had something to do with being in Asia.

The English overall record in Asia over the past 5 years looks respectable, about 33. However once you remove Bangladesh from that equation, their average drops to 26.68.

Over the same time Pakistan have averaged 36.

England desperately require their batsmen (who are outstanding players) to make some runs here in Abu Dhabi.

The other big issue is where the wickets will come from. Abu Dhabi has been a graveyard for bowlers. Both spin bowlers and pace bowlers have averaged just over 49 in the 2 tests there. And they haven't been bad bowlers. Steyn 4/138, Herath 3/134, Sami 0/129. It is not a bowlers friend.

The bowlers that have been the most effective here have generally been swing bowlers, so there is some light there for England, but it is a dim glow.

There are a couple of things to look for:

1. Often players perform better in milestone matches. Cook and Strauss are playing their 100th innings together as an opening partnership. They are currently the 4th most prolific partnership, roughly 300 behind Atapatu and Jayasuria, who opened up 118 times. This could be time for a big one from these two.

2. Umar Gul and bad balls getting wickets. Gull managed to pick up 3 wickets off long hops in the 2nd innings. Often bowlers that have a batsman under pressure can bowl a bad delivery and pick up a wicket with it. It will be interesting to see if his wickets are from good deliveries or from bad deliveries after a period of pressure.

3. How will Panesar go? He looked more dangerous than Swann in the warm up matches, and Swann was the pick of the English bowlers in Dubai. This could be Monty's chance to take back his mantle.

4. Jonathan Trott. He will probably be asked to do a job with the ball as well as the bat in this match. His ability to create pressure with the ball may be crucial for England.

Betting tips.

I would not recommend betting on too many options on this match. Much too unpredictable. The only one that I would recommend is going under on Strauss if he faces the first ball, and overs if he doesn't. (see last match's preview)

Mini-session analysis for 4th Test Aus Ind 11/12

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the 4th test between Australia and India at Adelaide.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	Australia 46/2 off 16	India
1-1b	Australia 52/1 off 13	Australia
1-2a	Australia 56/0 off 14	Australia
1-2b	Australia 60/0 off 15	Australia
1-3a	Australia 73/0 off 15	Australia
1-3b	Australia 48/0 off 17	Australia
2-1a	Australia 35/0 off 14	Australia
2-1b	Australia 69/0 off 16	Australia
2-2a	Australia 51/2 off 14	India
2-2b	Australia 49/2 off 16	India
2-3a	Australia 36/0 off 7	Australia
	India 48/2 off 11
2-3b	India 13/0 off 10	Australia
3-1a	India 26/2 off 12.5	Australia
3-1b	India 35/1 off 17.1	Australia
3-2a	India 49/0 off 15	India
3-2b	India 54/1 off 18.4	India
3-3a	India 47/4 off 10.3	Australia
3-3b	Australia 50/3 off 14	India
4-1a	Australia 61/1 off 14.2	Australia
4-1b	Australia 43/1 off 14.4	Australia
4-2a	Australia 13/0 off 3	India
	India 49/1 off 12
4-2b	India 43/1 off 12	India
4-3a	India 29/2 off 15	Australia
4-3b	India 45/2 off 17	Australia
5-1a	India 35/4 off 13.4	Australia

Australia win the match, and the count 17-8

To a large degree India will be glad to see the back of this series. They have been comprehensively outplayed by Australia. Kohli had been the big positive for this tour for India. He has certainly come of age as a test batsman in this series.

Preview - Aus Ind 4th Test Adelaide 11/12

While the series is dead, this match is potentially the most interesting.

Australia are wanting to end this series on a high note. India need redemption.

There is going to be a spotlight on both wicket keepers. Haddin desperately needs a good match. At the moment it is hard to see how he is keeping his spot. He doesn't look to be in as good form with the gloves as some of the keepers in the BBL, (although there is a big difference between test and domestic t20) and also seems to be batting out of a hole.

Saha has sat on the sidelines for about 38 years (it must feel like) watching Dhoni. Now he gets his chance. He is in good form with the bat, averaging 117 in his last 4 first class matches, and that might prove to be a welcome boost for India.

The transition from Dhoni's captaincy to Sehwag's will be interesting. Adelaide is a challenging place to captain a team, with very long straight boundaries and short square ones. Sehwag's last attempt on a pitch like this was vs NZ at McLean Park in Napier. New Zealand scored 619/9d at 4 an over after being 23/3. If he gets an opening like that against Australia he needs to capitalise on it, although that is a lot easier to say from my chair than his.

History would say that Adelaide offers the best chance for India. It is a batsman's ground, with both spinners and quick bowlers averaging over 40 there in the last 10 years. It is one of 14 grounds in the world to hold that distinction. Over the last 5 years India has played 13 matches at grounds in this category. They have won 4, lost 1 and drawn 8. Australia has played 8, won 1, lost 2 and drawn 5. In the last 3 games on these surfaces between the two countries, India have won 1, and 2 have been draws.

Likewise Austraia have had mixed results at Adelaide recently. The last 4 matches have seen a win and a loss, both by an innings and 2 draws. One of the draws was against India.

Things to watch for:

1. How does Saha go? It's one thing hitting unbeaten hundreds in Indian domestic cricket. Doing it in Australia is another issue.

2. How will VVS Laxman do? This pitch is likely to suit him more than the others, but he has been in such poor form it would not be surprising if he had another poor game.

3. Shaun Marsh. In all likely-hood this match is looking like a very important one for Marsh's career. He has underperformed badly so far this series, and while he has shown us that he is capable of succeeding, he needs to prove that he is more than another Marcus North by putting together a good innings (or 2) here.

4. India's fielding and running. Australia have scored 226 more runs than India in this series. However they have only scored 34 more runs in boundaries. Australia have run better, and been better at preventing India running. Australia's activity rate is roughly 0.34 while India are at about 0.25. Part of this is because Australia have been bowling more of a 5th/6th stump line, and slightly forward of a good length as their standard delivery, where as India have bowled a slightly shorter 4th stump as their standard delivery. The fuller wider bowling makes it harder to work singles, but easier to hit boundaries. However India still have had a number of opportunities to score more by running, and have let too many easy runs in through sloppy fielding. Will the change to Sehwag make a difference? I personally doubt it.

5. Forget Tendulkar's hundred, can anyone from India make one? So far India's top scores in this series is 83. They have had the same number of batsmen get to 50 as Australia, but 4 of the Australians managed to convert to 100's. Over the last 10 years Indian batsmen have scored one away century for every 17 innings. So far this test they have had 66 innings without one. Traditionally the probability of an Indian batsman getting to 100 once they had got to 50 away from home is about 30%. So we would have expected 4 centurys given that they had been past fifty 14 times. Surely that trend will break at the benign Adelaide Oval.

Betting tips.

The last couple of matches have not been good. My overall success rate has dropped from about 1.4 (40c profit from every dollar bet) to about 1.05, so hopefully I can make it up to you all this time round.

1. Kohli top Indian batsman 1st innings - $6.50 - He looks like he is coming into form. I'd pick this as about a 25% probability, which makes these good odds.

2. Harris top Australia bowler 1st innings - $3.50 - Lillee said that Adelaide suited bowlers who bowled good cutters. Harris seemed to do this in the bits of the last match that I watched. He also bowled much better than his figures indicated.

3. Tendulkar 86 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I genuinely think he will get his hundred here.

4. Saha 71 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I'd expect him to take at least 2 catches which is 20 points. Then 51 runs in 2 innings seems getable.

5. Siddle 110 and over - player performance - $1.83 - It wouldn't be a massive surprise if he picked up 2 wickets in one innings and 3 in the other, and chipped in with 20 with the bat.

Mini-session analysis for 1st Test Pak Eng 11/12

Here is the mini-session analysis for the 1st test between Pakistan and England in Dubai. I will be updating this from time to time throughout the match. (It is not in a good timezone for me to do it regularly)

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	England 31/2 off 12.3	Pakistan
1-1b	England 21/3 off 15.3	Pakistan
1-2a	England 41/1 off 14	England
1-2b	England 45/1 off 13	England
1-3a	England 53/3 off 17.3	Pakistan
1-3b	Pakistan 42/0 off 15	Pakistan
2-1a	Pakistan 48/0 off 15	Pakistan
2-1b	Pakistan 48/2 off 13	England
2-2a	Pakistan 38/1 off 13.4	England
2-2b	Pakistan 37/1 off 15.2	England
2-3a	Pakistan 47/1 off 19	Pakistan
2-3b	Pakistan 38/2 off 13.3	England
3-1a	Pakistan 46/2 off 14.3	England
3-1b	Pakistan 4/1 off 0.5	Pakistan
	England 16/1 off 8
3-2a	England 19/3 off 12.1	Pakistan
3-2b	England 40/1 off 15	England
3-3a	England 51/2 off 15	Pakistan
3-3b	England 34/3 off 7.5	Pakistan
	Pakistan 15/0 off 3.4

Pakistan win the mini-session count 10-8. Surprisingly close for such a one-sided match. The bowling side won 12 of the 18 mini-sessions, which probably explains in part how the game was over inside 3 days. Pakistan's first innings was the only first innings total in the last 5 years under 350 to set up a 10 wicket victory.

There is probably much wringing of hands going on in England at the moment, but I still feel that these are two freak results. Here are how the first 5 wickets happened in each England innings:
Cook edged a short ball from Hafeez (bad delivery - unlucky wicket)
Trott got strangled down the leg-side off Aizaz Cheema (bad delivery - unlucky wicket)
Strauss was beaten in flight, tried to pull a full straight one (good delivery - bad shot)
Bell doesn't pick a doosra and gets an edge behind (good delivery - credit to bowler)
Pietersen played down the wrong line to a straight one (reasonable delivery - bad shot)
Strauss strangled down the leg side. Quite possibly didn't hit it (bad ball - unlucky dismissal)
Cook strangled down the leg side (bad ball - unlucky dismissal)
Pietersen top edged a pull shot to a good short ball (good delivery - bad shot)
Bell completely misread a good delivery (good delivery - credit to the bowler)
Morgan gets beaten by a good ball and edges behind (good delivery - credit to the bowler)
I will be surprised if there are so many unlucky dismissals in such a short space of time in the 2nd match. It is always possible, that is part of what makes cricket interesting. A wide half volley sometimes results in a wicket when a searing inswinging yorker on middle stump is sometimes defended (and occasionally gets hit to the fence for 4 - as Lara did to Danny Morrison first ball of a marvelous hundred).

The England will need to work on getting their feet moving more effectively to the spinners, and perhaps waiting until they have their eyes in before playing across the line; but they are seriously good players, and I expect them to come back from this. This match has a similar feel to the 2nd test between South Africa and Sri Lanka. The third test in that series should give England some hope.

Preview - Pak Eng 1st Test Dubai 11/12

The two top performing sides from last year meet in a mouthwatering match up.

The attacking England vs the conservative Pakistan. It seems like a role reversal from recent years.

England have an interesting choice. I feel it's between Eion Morgan and Monty Panesar. Prior, Broad and Swann are a fantastic 7,8,9 but they would actually still be a very good 6,7,8. Having the extra bowler to spread the load, and particularly having an extra spin bolwer (and one who is in form) is not a bad look. However England got a lot of bowling out of Pietersen and Trott last year, and they might be keen on relying on them again, and keeping their line up as similar as possible.

Pakistan are likely to go into the match with 3 front line spinners, Saeed Ajmal, Mohammed Hafeez and Abdur Rehman. This will be interesting, as it will provide a good examination for England's batsmen new found confidence against spin. They have been improving solidly over the last few years against spin, but the conditions in Dubai might provide a point of difference.

England vs spin last 4 years:

Year	Average
2007	37.81
2008	38.54
2009	46.03
2010	51.06
2011	82.73

It is hard to see where the wickets are going to come from, other than patience. In the last couple of years that matches have been played in UAE, only Junaid Khan has averaged under 30 with a strike rate under 60. (Welegedara got close). There are likely to be some big scores, particularly from the patient batsmen like Misbah-ul-Haq and Alister Cook.

Things to watch for:

1. Mohammed Hafeez. He has bowled like a genius recently. He doesn't have all the tricks like Saeed Ajmal, he just bowls really well. However his batting has slipped. Will he continue on his Dipak Patelesque journey from batsman who bowls a bit to bowler who bats a bit, or will he step up with the bat too?

2. Swann vs Ajmal. Two very different spinners, both capable of doing a lot of damage with the ball. Who will come out on top?

3. Wahab Riaz and Umar Gul. When they are on, both can be devastating bowlers. The Emerati air is not likely to help with the swing too much, but any assistance that is offered they will be sure to take advantage of.

4. Who faces the first ball for England? When he's been captain, Strauss has averaged 23 less when he faces the first ball than when he doesn't. It possibly takes him a while to switch out of the more macro captain thinking into the more micro opener thinking.

Betting tips:

1. Top England batsman - Jonathan Trott $4.50. He averages 85 in the first match of a series. He likes to lay down a marker. He also averages 67 against Pakistan. Probably about a 30% probability.

2. Top Pakistan batsman - Younis Khan. $4.50, Misbah-ul-Haq $5.50. I'm actually going to take both here because I think that one of these two will be the top scorer. The conditions are likely to suit Misbah, but Younis has not averaged under 50 for a year since 2004, and he often does well in the first two games of a series. My split will be 20 on Misbah and 25 on Younis. It will return slightly more on Younis Khan, because I think he is slightly more likely to be top scorer.

3. Younis Khan to outscore Maohammad Hafeez $1.83. Seems easy money to me. Hafeez scored 143 against Bangladesh, but that is a slightly different prospect to playing Anderson, Broad and Tremlett with the new ball.

4. Pakistan not to win. $1.22. I see a draw as the most likely outcome here, but I can't see Pakistan getting England out cheaply twice.

Mini-session analysis for 3rd Test Aus Ind 11/12

Here is the mini-session analysis for the 3rd test between India and Australia in Perth.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	India 32/2 off 13.5	Australia
1-1b	India 41/2 off 14.1	Australia
1-2a	India 26/0 off 14	Australia
1-2b	India 55/2 off 13	India
1-3a	India 17/4 off 5.2	Australia
	Australia 94/0 off 13
1-3b	Australia 55/0 off 10	Australia
2-1a	Australia 50/0 off 13	Australia
2-1b	Australia 45/3 off 11	India
2-2a*	Australia 47/3 off 11.1	India
2-2b	Australia 66/4 off 16.1	India
2-3a	India 56/4 off 22	Australia
2-3b	India 32/0 off 10	India
3-1a	India 41/0 off 12	India
3-1b	India 36/2 off 12	Australia
3-2a	India 6/4 off 3.2	Australia

*There was no official drinks break recorded in the 2nd session of day 2, so I assumed they took drinks at the fall of Haddin's wicket, roughly half way through the session.

Australia win the count 9-6.

This game was won and lost in the last 2 mini-sessions of the first day, and the one after tea on day 2. The partnership of Warner and Cowan, and the loss of 4 for 56 off the first 22 overs of India's second innings.

I desperately hope India put up more of a fight in Adelaide. They have not taken advantage of the key moments in any of these matches so far.

Preview - Aus Ind 3rd Test Perth 11/12

The WACA.

Possibly the ground with the most intense legend surrounding it.

The bouncy track. The ball whistling past the batsman's ears. The Fremantle Doctor.

One part fact, one part fiction.

There was a time where the WACA was the fastest, bounciest and scariest pitch in the world. That title is long gone. The WACA is now a great place to be a batsman. Even the 10th wicket has an average partnership of 16 in the last 5 years. And yet every match in the last 5 years has provided a result. The runs come quickly, but so do the wickets.

There are a couple of things I am looking for in this match.

1. The team that bats first normally wins. There is a small sample size, but teams are advised to bat first. This has been a good ground for openers, and if they can survive the opening hour or so they can really pile on the runs.

2. How will Michael Clarke go? I took a sample of 300's (I didn't have time to look at them all) and looked at the next innings for each batsman. The median score was 31. Will Clarke fall below this, or will he back up with another big score. Hes scored 251 in his last 4 matches at this ground, which is not bad, but also not setting the world on fire.

3. Zaheer Khan. The most effective bowlers at the WACA recently have been left arm swing bowlers. India have an outstanding exponent of this art. He will need support, but he could be very dangerous, particularly in the second innings.

4. How will the spinners go? This ground has not been friendly for spinners, and it will be interesting to see how Lyon and Ashwin go. Both players are in doubt for the match, and it will be interesting to see if they make the line-ups and if so, how they will go.

Betting tips.

1. Player Performance Michael Clarke under 100 $1.83. I would expect the probability of him getting under 100 to be about 0.7

2. Player Performance Sachin Tendulkar 85 & over $1.83. He is hardly ever scoring under 40 at the moment. His attacking style is suited to this ground.

3. Top India bowler Zaheer Khan $3. This seems too good to be true. I was expecting Khan to be at about $2.20

4. India to win (draw no bet) $2.75. This game may end up a draw, but if not, this could be India's chance to strike back.

Adding value with the ball

A while ago Nicholas Rohde wrote a series of articles that got some people upset. He used an economic model to look at which batsmen had made the greatest contribution.

His basic method was to compare the runs they had scored to the runs that an average batsman would have scored finding the added value that they provided their team.

I read through his article and was impressed with his approach despite feeling there are some issues in the way that he interpreted his results. He did not take in account the extra frequency of matches in the modern era when suggesting that a current selector should pick a young Tendulkar over a young Bradman. Bradman should be judged on his opportunities, not on someone elses (Bradman played in 87% of Australia's matches during his career, only just behind Tendulkar's 92%). However the background theory is actually quite intuitive and also provides some very interesting results.

I took his idea and applied it to test bowling. My method was probably not identical to his, but what I did was break down each year to find out how many runs bowlers had conceded and how many wickets had been taken in that year. For each bowler I then found the total runs and wickets in the years that they played, to give a value for what the average bowler would have done. There are some issues with this method for figuring out added value, but I feel that it gives a better guide than any other practical method I can think of.

Here is an example of how it works:

Shabir Ahmed played 10 tests between 2003 and 2005 for Pakistan. He took 51 wickets for 1175 runs. In 2003 there were 1305 wickets taken for 47145 runs. 2004 had 1555 wickets for 54916 runs and 2005 had 1508 wickets for 50377 runs. The total runs per wicket for those three years was roughly 34.9. So we multiply his wickets (51) by 34.9 to get 1780. We then subtract the runs he conceded (1175) to get his value of 605. Effectively he saved his team 605 runs more than an average player would have.

So once we add up the figures, who comes out on top?

First we'll look at the aggregates, and there are a few familiar names there.

Player	Matches	Wickets	Average	Added Value
M Muralitharan (ICC/SL)	133	800	22.72	8410
GD McGrath (Aus)	124	563	21.64	6260
SK Warne (Aus)	145	708	25.41	5174
CEL Ambrose (WI)	98	405	20.99	4261
Sir RJ Hadlee (NZ)	86	431	22.29	4115
SM Pollock (SA)	108	421	23.11	4105
MD Marshall (WI)	81	376	20.94	4096
CA Walsh (WI)	132	519	24.44	3891
Wasim Akram (Pak)	104	414	23.62	3472
Imran Khan (Pak)	88	362	22.81	3328
Waqar Younis (Pak)	87	373	23.56	3273
AA Donald (SA)	72	330	22.25	3110
DW Steyn (SA)	51	263	23.07	3088
FS Trueman (Eng)	67	307	21.57	2745
DK Lillee (Aus)	70	355	23.92	2715
J Garner (WI)	58	259	20.97	2654
RGD Willis (Eng)	90	325	25.20	2071
MA Holding (WI)	60	249	23.68	1939
A Kumble (India)	132	619	29.65	1919
M Ntini (SA)	101	390	28.82	1849
JN Gillespie (Aus)	71	259	26.13	1750
SF Barnes (Eng)	27	189	16.43	1749
AK Davidson (Aus)	44	186	20.53	1731
JC Laker (Eng)	46	193	21.24	1636
CV Grimmett (Aus)	37	216	24.21	1625

We notice that the likes of Barnes and Davidson are a lot higher than they would be in a pure wickets table.

Muralitharan is miles ahead of McGrath in 2nd place. Regardless of what Bishan Singh Bedi thinks his record is formidable. Once his action was cleared he still had to put the ball in the right place, and do the right thing with it, and he did that, time after time after time.

Glenn Mcgrath jumps over Anil Kumble and Shane Warne into second spot. Both he and Shaun Pollock changed the way that bowlers thought about opening the bowling, with his metronomic accuracy and aggressive approach being incredibly valuable to his team. His economy being the difference between him and Warne on the table.

Now when we are looking for the best bowler consistency is important, but really we want to know who could be expected to do the best in the next game, so how well they do per innings is more important.

Here is the table of added value per innings. (I've limited it to bowlers who bowled more than 10 innings and took more than 25 wickets)

Player	Wickets	Average	Added Value	AV per innings
J Cowie (NZ)	45	21.53	641	49.31
MJ Procter (SA)	41	15.02	615	43.90
H Ironmonger (Aus)	74	17.97	1036	38.35
RAL Massie (Aus)	31	20.87	407	37.02
M Muralitharan (ICC/SL)	800	22.72	8410	36.56
SF Barnes (Eng)	189	16.43	1749	34.99
SE Bond (NZ)	87	22.09	1087	33.97
RJ Harris (Aus)	35	21.37	459	32.76
DW Steyn (SA)	263	23.07	3088	32.51
Shabbir Ahmed (Pak)	51	23.03	605	31.83
AE Hall (SA)	40	22.15	436	31.16
K Higgs (Eng)	71	20.74	833	30.83
BN Schultz (SA)	37	20.24	423	30.23
ERH Toshack (Aus)	47	21.04	652	28.33
GA Lohmann (Eng)	112	10.75	997	27.70
Sir RJ Hadlee (NZ)	431	22.29	4115	27.44
MD Marshall (WI)	376	20.94	4096	27.13
WJ O'Reilly (Aus)	144	22.59	1288	26.83

The name at the top is one that most readers won't know. The 1938 Wisden said this about Jack Cowie, "Had he been an Australian, he might have been termed a wonder of the age." During the 12 years that he played, New Zealand only played 9 test matches and he famously only got to bowl once to Bradman, getting him out for 11. Hutton described him as the best bowler he had faced. An example of how much better Cowie was than his contemporaries is that the rest of New Zealand bowlers averaged over 54 in the same 9 tests.

The second name is more familiar: Mike Procter was the match referee at the 2006 match where Pakistan refused to come out and field, and also was the one who banned Harbajhan Singh in Sydney 2008. He only played a small number of tests due to being from South Africa, but in his 401 match first class career he managed to keep his bowling average under 20 (as well as averaging over 36 with the bat)

The third name on the list, Dainty Ironmonger didn't make his debut until he was 45, but was very effective with his left-arm slow medium, and very ineffective with the bat (having a similar average to Chris Martin).

Murali is the first of the recent players on the list, which is a credit to him, as he kept that up for a very long time. Steyn is also remarkably high, ahead of the likes of Hadlee, Marshall and Lillee.