India vs Pakistan statistical preview.

Here's a couple of little charts etc for today's match up

This suggests that 250 would be a quite defendable total. The par score here is much, much lower than on most grounds in England.

The ground is actually fairly well balanced between both pace and bat and spin and bat - but still favouring both types of bowler slightly.


Old Trafford is the black spot, the grey points are other grounds around the world. Spin and pace friendliness are calculated based on the success of different types of bowlers on those grounds, taking into account runs conceded, balls bowled as wickets taken.

Adding to the ground data all the matches where India has batted first and all the matches where Pakistan has batted second, brings this graph:

This suggests that, taking into account the teams, that a more normal curve applies. If India score under 200 they're unlikely to win, 250 is the 50/50 point and 300 is more like a 75% chance of defending.

Preview - Match 6 - England vs Pakistan - Trent Bridge

England and Pakistan return to the scene of a recent run-fest, but this time there is more on the line.

To say that Trent Bridge tends to be batting friendly is like saying that Elton John tends to play the piano. However, the pitches so far have not exactly been typical of the grounds, and this may prove to be another incident of that.

England start as heavy favourites - Bet365 have them at 82%, Google gives them a 79% chance of winning, and my model gives them 84%. But the favourites don't always win ODI matches.

Here's the historical first innings score chart:

Pakistan have a reputation as an unpredictable team, but the reality is that they are one of the more predictable sides. They very rarely beat teams that are better than them, and very rarely lose to teams that they are better than. England should win this one reasonably comfortably.

Preview - World Cup group match 5 - South Africa vs Bangladesh - The Oval

Today Bangladesh get their campaign underway, and South Africa get a chance to bounce back from their early loss.

This is predicted to be a win for South Africa, but I think the betting market are overstating the difference between the teams. Most of the bookies have an implied chance of winning of about 76% for South Africa, but my early model had them at 67%, and after their loss to England and Bangladesh's recent series win over West Indies (which looks more impressive now that West Indies have turned out to be quite good), the gap has shortened to 66.6% for South Africa vs 33.4% for Bangladesh.

The Oval pitch is one where there has been variety of conditions recently, so it's hard to know what a good score is until both teams have batted. Here's the historical graph:

The numbers have all dropped down by 2 or 3 runs as a result of the last match. 

One thing that does not play to Bangladesh's advantage here is the pitch. This is probably the bounciest pitch in England, and is more like a South African pitch than a typical English pitch. Bangladesh, however, play on probably the lowest, slowest pitches in the world.

If this match was at Taunton or Old Trafford, then Bangladesh may well be favourites. But not at the Oval. I'd expect South Africa to do well here. If they don't, then the semi-finals suddenly look a very long way away indeed.

Preview - World Cup group match 3 - New Zealand vs Sri Lanka

This match is at Sophia Gardens in Cardiff. It's likely to be cool and damp, but with no rain. That's likely to play into New Zealand's hands.

New Zealand are distinct favourites - Bet365 have them at 78%, Google has them at 79%, and my model has New Zealand at 81%. However, none of those are at 100%, and the match isn't played on paper - Sri Lanka are still capable of pulling out a big performance.

Sophia Gardens is an odd shape, similar to Eden Park in Auckland, so it's a shape that New Zealand should be comfortable with. However, New Zealand has a mixed record at the ground - it was host to the match where New Zealand famously lost to Bangladesh in the Champions Trophy. In the one previous match between the two sides there, New Zealand won by 1 wicket, only just managing to win despite bowling Sri Lanka out for 138.

Teams batting first have generally not done well at Sophia Gardens unless they get a very big score. It's likely that both teams will want to chase here.

Again a score of 290 would be below par based on historical data, but ICC events sometimes have the pitches in different conditions to normal matches, so there's a chance that a lower score might still be very competitive.

As with some of the other matches, one of the more interesting things here will be the selections. What combination of players will each team go for?

Whichever way it goes - matches at Cardiff have tended to be interesting, even when the teams have seemed to be mismatched on paper before hand, so this could be the first match that's actually interesting on the field as well as just in the lead up.

Preview - World Cup group match 2 - West Indies vs Pakistan

Today's match is at Trent Bridge, Nottingham.

If any ground in the world has taken over the mantle of "most batting friendly ground in the world" from the Antigua Recreational Ground in St Johns, it's Trent Bridge. The groundsman seems to have taken WG Grace's famous statement "they came to see me bat, not you bowl" to the next level. The pitch seems to have been designed to make batting as easy as possible.

As a result the par score here is quite high.

Score 290 here, and you're on the wrong side of recent history. In order to have a 75% chance of winning after batting first, your team needs to score 349.

If anywhere is going to see 500 achieved, it is likely to be either Nottingham or Southampton (which also has a bowler-hating groundsman).

The regression model that I used in the previous article gives Pakistan a 73% chance of coming out on top in this match. However, the West Indies have been looking better recently than they were a couple of years ago, and Pakistan (conversely) have been looking like they're at a low ebb. As a result, this match feels more like it could go either way.

Pakistan have a habit of lifting their game significantly when they get momentum, and, as a result, have had a very good record recently against all the teams who are not currently ranked in the top five. The West Indies will need to start well to avoid Pakistan getting on a roll. 

This match is an important fixture for both sides, as a loss here will mean that the losing team will need to beat at least two of the top five ranked teams if they are to progress to the semi-finals.