Showing posts with label Concentration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Concentration. Show all posts

Tuesday, 3 February 2015

Martin Guptill and the form myth

Every season there seems to be a cause célèbre among NZ cricket fans. In 2013 the call was that Brendon McCullum wasn't scoring enough runs, and needed to be dropped. In 2013-14 it was that Peter Fulton wasn't scoring enough runs and needed to be dropped. This season the overwhelming majority of cricket talk in New Zealand has been about one man: Martin Guptill. Apparently he isn't scoring enough runs and needs to be dropped.

In either calls to Radio Sport or comments on the Vietchy On Sport facebook page there have been at least 21 players suggested as being a better option as an opener than Martin Guptill. People have suggested different ways that he might get injured in order to get him replaced in the squad.

But the opinion that Guptill's significantly out if form is not just confined to the uninformed public (I consider anyone that suggest Michael Pollard, Peter Ingram or Kyle Mills as replacements for Guptill uninformed). There have been a number of the country's sports journalists join in. In a quite well written and balanced piece, Andrew Alderson noted that Guptill "struggled for form." Charlie Bristow talked of Mike Hesson needing "to handle Martin Guptill's stuttering form." Mark Geenty commented that the top order was carrying "significance and concern." Guy Heveldt said that Guptill is "under immense pressure to find some form before the World Cup begins." Daniel Richardson said that Guptill is "out of touch", "has done little to inspire confidence" and that his "form is a concern."

Friday, 3 May 2013

Concentration vs Technique revisited

Ed Cowan, often uprooted after getting in.
A couple of years ago I wrote an article looking at players who capitalised on getting a start, and at players who struggled to do so.

With the gap between test matches at the moment, it's a good time to look at the numbers again.

I looked at all players who had faced at least 250 balls in 20 or more innings in last 3 years. I also restricted it to players who had at least 7 innings of less than 20 and at least 7 innings of 20 or more in that time.

For the average from 20, I subtracted 20 from their average in innings with a total score of 20+.

Here are the players who have the biggest positive difference between their average from 0 and their average from 20.

NameInnings 20+Innings under 20AverageAverage 20+Difference
MS Wade (Aus) 71534.6196.2561.64
MG Johnson (Aus) 82317.8556.4038.55
CA Pujara (India) 121065.55101.8836.33
IR Bell (Eng) 282056.1584.3128.16
AN Cook (Eng) 322955.5982.2026.61
KC Sangakkara (SL) 322162.4884.4822.00
JH Kallis (SA) 261763.4784.6121.14
SCJ Broad (Eng) 122424.3645.0020.64
MJ Prior (Eng) 292150.8270.5219.70
MJ Clarke (Aus) 322553.7073.2719.57
M Vijay (India) 91140.2558.7718.52
KP Pietersen (Eng) 282548.5066.8018.30
RT Ponting (Aus) 202434.5252.2717.75
HMRKB Herath (SL) 102917.8535.0017.15

The two names at the top of this list were fascinating. I had no idea that those two had been so good at capitalising on a start. It suggests that early wickets down the order will be very important for England in the upcoming Ashes series.

The other end of the table is the players who have a tendency to throw away their wickets after getting a start.

NameInnings 20+Innings under 20AverageAverage 20+Difference
AN Petersen (SA) 291237.6428.17-9.47
EJM Cowan (Aus) 191132.927.78-5.12
AB de Villiers (SA) 34970.3466.00-4.34
GP Swann (Eng) 152219.1515.53-3.62
SR Watson (Aus) 271732.4829.50-2.98
DG Brownlie (NZ) 13832.829.91-2.89
HAPW Jayawardene (SL) 171530.5728.00-2.57
G Gambhir (India) 231830.5728.21-2.36
AJ Strauss (Eng) 291934.0632.67-1.39
Tamim Iqbal (Ban) 13937.8637.07-0.79
GC Smith (SA) 301744.444.07-0.33
AB Barath (WI) 111321.5821.900.32
V Kohli (India) 191241.9642.940.98
CS Baugh (WI) 91717.2518.251.00

It's surprising to see two openers at the top of this list. These two do the hard work regularly, both getting to 20 roughly twice as often as they don't, but then they don't make the most of it. In fact it was a tweet from Gary Naylor from 99.94 that made me think about redoing this analysis, as Cowan's record is quite remarkable.



It made me wonder where these two sat overall among openers. Using the same conditions, I compiled this list, looking only at innings where a batsman was opening the batting:

NameInnings 20+Innings under 20AverageAverage 20+Difference
AN Petersen (SA) 311138.3628.96-9.40
CM Spearman (NZ) 171223.9616.70-7.26
RW Barber (Eng) 221138.6231.54-7.08
BM Laird (Aus) 261435.2829.76-5.52
H Sutcliffe (Eng) 651861.1055.82-5.28
A Turner (Aus) 171029.5324.25-5.28
CJ Barnett (Eng) 14739.6534.53-5.12
BK Kunderan (India) 13841.1536.15-5.00
UC Hathurusingha (SL) 251730.7326.12-4.61
Imran Farhat (Pak) 453131.8527.25-4.60
GS Camacho (WI) 12930.3325.75-4.58
B Wood (Eng) 101121.6117.50-4.11
EJM Cowan (Aus) 181133.2029.11-4.09
RB Simpson (Aus) 521855.5152.00-3.51
JB Hobbs (Eng) 702756.3752.98-3.39
Imrul Kayes (Ban) 122017.1513.91-3.24
SM Katich (Aus) 421950.4847.46-3.02
IR Redpath (Aus) 401944.5041.57-2.93

Both batsman make this list, with Alviro Petersen again clear at the top. Interesting to note that three of the batsmen regarded as some of the greatest openers ever (Herb Sutcliffe, Jack Hobbs and Bobby Simpson) on the list.

The final batsman that I want to look at is Ross Taylor. He was near the bottom of the list last time I did this analysis, with an average of 40.21 and then 40.38 once he got to 20 (a difference of 0.17). In the past 3 years he has improved both numbers. This time he has averaged 41.79 and then 47.73 once he gets to 20 (a more respectable difference of 5.94). Perhaps he actually is the player who will disprove Martin Crowe's infamous assertion that Polynesian players didn't have the concentration required for cricket.

Saturday, 28 July 2012

Scoring 100's

One of the criticisms that is sometimes leveled at some batsmen in test cricket is that they can't convert a start. They do the hard part of the innings, get to 25 and then get out, without going on to score a hundred.

On the suggestion of Jamie Lloyd, from The Heavy Roller, I decided to have a look at the conversion rates for current batsmen.

I defined a start as 25 runs, and so I looked at how many times a batsman got out between 25 and 99 and how many times they got past 100. I did not count not outs between 25 and 99. I only looked at innings in the top 7 and at batsmen who had passed 25 more than 10 times. I also only looked at innings in the last 10 years, as the conditions have changed quite a lot between the 90's and now, so it was better to restrict it to this time frame. I also ignored any batsmen who hadn't played an innings in the past 4 years.

Here's the top of the list:

NameDismissals 25 - 99100sConversion rate
JH Kallis583437.0%
AG Prince221133.3%
RR Sarwan321531.9%
Mohammad Yousuf331531.3%
KC Sangakkara592630.6%
MJ Clarke441930.2%
RT Ponting723130.1%
AN Cook512028.2%
R Dravid672628.0%
DPMD Jayawardene582227.5%
HM Amla401527.3%
S Chanderpaul542027.0%
IR Bell441626.7%
SR Tendulkar612226.5%
Younis Khan431525.9%
GC Smith722525.8%
KP Pietersen602025.0%
IJL Trott21725.0%
JDP Oram15525.0%
Shahid Afridi9325.0%

We see a list of some of the best modern batsmen there, headed by the incomparable Jacques Kallis. There is also a distinct lack of current New Zealand batsmen there, with only Jacob Oram (who retired from tests 3 years ago) in the list.

At the other end of the table are a lot of wicket-keepers and bowling all-rounders.

Here it is sorted from worst rate.

NameDismissals 25 - 99100sConversion rate
MV Boucher5023.8%
Mushfiqur Rahim2214.3%
DS Smith2114.5%
T Taibu2014.8%
AD Mathews1815.3%
SCJ Broad1815.3%
Shahriar Nafees1815.3%
SR Watson3425.6%
DJG Sammy1516.3%
Junaid Siddique1416.7%
MG Johnson1317.1%
Umar Akmal1317.1%
KD Karthik1217.7%
NT Paranavitana2328.0%
Harbhajan Singh2228.3%
Faisal Iqbal1118.3%
DJ Bravo3238.6%
Shoaib Malik2128.7%
D Ramdin2128.7%
Shakib Al Hasan2128.7%
BJ Haddin27310.0%
Imran Farhat27310.0%
AB Barath9110.0%
Salman Butt25310.7%
Yasir Hameed16211.1%
Misbah-ul-Haq23311.5%
MS Dhoni36512.2%
BB McCullum42612.5%
MJ Guptill14212.5%
Mahmudullah7112.5%

It makes me wonder why there are so many keepers there. Perhaps the temperament that makes someone a good keeper is not suited to getting big scores, alternatively it could be that keepers are more likely to get off to a start, as they tend to have a good eye, and are also more likely to be batting with the tail, hence are more likely to hit out. Alternatively it could be that keepers are more likely to get tired, as they have a lot of work to do in the field. For more, see Does keeping influence batting.

If we ignore the wicket-keepers and bowlers, there are a few players who are in there form Pakistan and also one each from New Zealand, Sri Lanka Bangladesh. The Pakistani batsmen have not played many home matches in this time, and I wondered if there was any significant difference for players at home and away.

Once I isolated out home and away performances there was a clear difference. I home matches players converted 21.1% of starts to hundreds, while away players only converted 17.6%

The next step was to look at who was the best at converting starts to hundreds away from home, as it is obviously a more difficult skill.

NameDismissals 25 - 99100sConversion rate
JA Rudolph9535.7%
JH Kallis241335.1%
AJ Strauss231132.4%
AN Cook211032.3%
TT Samaraweera14630.0%
SR Tendulkar361428.0%
R Dravid391527.8%
MJ Clarke21827.6%
GC Smith371427.5%
AG Prince11426.7%
TM Dilshan17626.1%
RT Ponting331125.0%

The name at the top is surprising. Jacques Rudolph has scored 5 of his 6 hundreds away from South Africa. He's only converted 1 of his 14 starts at home. Once we remove the penalty for playing a lot of matches in England on difficult pitches, Strauss and Cook move up the list. Likewise once we take Sangakkara out of Sri Lanka his numbers don't look nearly as good.

At the bottom of the list, there are still a number of 'keepers and bowlers, but a couple of different batsmen appear.

NameDismissals 25 - 99100sConversion rate
MV Boucher2700.0%
MS Dhoni2014.8%
SR Watson1815.3%
D Ramdin1516.3%
Imran Farhat1516.3%
LRPL Taylor1217.7%
Mohammad Ashraful1118.3%
Kamran Akmal1929.5%

Farhat, Taylor and Ashraful are all terrible at converting starts when they are away from home. Ashraful might not get to play much more test cricket, but the other two need to address this urgently.

The final question is which teams are best at converting starts.

These numbers are quite interesting.

TeamOverallHomeAwayDifference
South Africa 23.7%24.0%23.4%0.7%
Australia 23.5%25.5%21.5%4.0%
England 21.8%24.7%18.4%6.4%
Sri Lanka 21.2%21.6%20.7%0.9%
India 19.7%20.9%18.9%2.0%
West Indies 18.6%22.9%14.9%8.0%
Pakistan 17.0%24.6%13.9%10.7%
New Zealand 14.5%14.2%14.7%-0.5%
Zimbabwe 6.8%7.7%5.0%2.7%
Bangladesh 6.0%5.8%6.2%-0.3%

Only New Zealand and Bangladesh do better away from home. It is not a massive surprise in the case of New Zealand as the New Zealand pitches tend to be bowler friendly, and a good ball that misbehaves off the pitch can unseat even the most set batsman. It's part of the reason why batsmen from round the world tend to have significantly lower averages playing against the Blackcaps in NZ than playing them at home. Bangladesh is a little more difficult to understand, but the number at home and away are both particularly poor for Bangladesh, so it might not really tell us anything.

The difference between the better sides over this period (South Africa, Australia, England) and the worst ones (Bangladesh and Zimbabwe) is fairly clear in this statistic, and so perhaps the ability to convert really is an important factor when assessing the quality or otherwise of a batsman.

Wednesday, 12 January 2011

Concentration or Technique

To be a great batsman it requires good technique and good skills of concentration.

Generally players who have a flaw in their technique are shown up early in their innings, while players who have lapses in concentration tend to have difficulty converting starts to big scores.

The challenge is to see if there is a way to quantify this.

So I took a range of batsmen, and looked at their average, compared to their average score after 20. (to get this I found their average on all innings when they had reached 20, and then subtracted 20, to find out how many more they got.)

There were a couple of interesting results. I was expecting McIntosh, North and Samaraweera to have high averages once they got to 50, but I didn't know who to expect to be at the bottom end.

Here is the table:

NameAverage after TwentyOverall AverageDifference
MJ North 67.6635.4832.18
TG McIntosh 54.6027.5427.06
AG Prince 67.6845.6122.07
S Chanderpaul 77.7857.0020.78
MJ Prior 60.8342.9617.87
DPMD Jayawardene 81.8063.9517.85
SR Tendulkar 74.0457.4816.56
Shoaib Malik 49.7633.7715.99
Younis Khan 75.6559.9315.72
HM Amla 65.0749.8015.27
IR Bell 58.9043.7315.17
TT Samaraweera 76.6861.9014.78
MJ Clarke 62.8050.2712.53
AB de Villiers 59.7847.6512.13
KC Sangakkara 83.3171.3211.99
Misbah-ul-Haq 60.548.7511.75
V Sehwag 64.4853.3411.14
PD Collingwood 52.8241.7211.10
MJ Guptill 44.7233.6811.04
Kamran Akmal 44.5734.0510.52
JH Kallis 66.7257.788.94
Yuvraj Singh 43.5034.788.72
RT Ponting 54.9446.708.24
Mohammad Yousuf 67.4559.517.94
R Dravid 52.9645.117.85
IJL Trott 69.2361.537.70
MEK Hussey 55.6248.317.31
VVS Laxman 59.9052.946.96
MS Dhoni 46.2740.236.04
KP Pietersen 54.6048.945.66
PJ Hughes 44.8039.555.25
AN Cook 51.8347.504.33
IK Pathan 43.0038.854.15
BJ Haddin 43.0339.683.35
Tamim Iqbal 41.8040.131.67
BP Nash 40.1238.851.27
GC Smith 49.1348.111.02
CH Gayle 46.8245.960.86
AJ Strauss 42.5041.980.52
LRPL Taylor 40.3840.210.17
TM Dilshan 45.0245.4-0.38
G Gambhir 57.2557.95-0.70
SR Watson 42.2443.53-1.29
SM Katich 47.4650.48-3.02
JD Ryder 41.7847.76-5.98


There are a couple of results that I find interesting in this group. Firstly how high Matt Prior's difference is. Most wicket-keepers have very a very good eye, and as a result tend to not get out for low scores as often (the average difference for non-keepers is 8.73, while the average for keepers is 7.68)

The number of batsmen who regularly face the new ball being in the bottom half of the group is also surprising. Given that there is a much higher chance of getting out early when facing a new ball, I expected openers such as Dilshan, Ghambir, Watson, and Katich to cash in better when they got a start. (I'm aware that Dilshan played half his games in the middle order diring this period, but strangely his difference was greater in the middle order than opening)

Something that I don't want to mention, but it is interesting is the other two names at the bottom of this list: Ross Taylor and Jesse Ryder. Martin Crowe (quite rightly) got criticized heavily for saying that Maori and Polynesian cricketers were never going to have the impact that Maori and Polynesian rugby players did, because they generally didn't have the concentration required. Taylor (Samoan) and Ryder (Maori) were trumpeted as the counter-examples to his theory, but perhaps their success has more to do with technique than concentration. (Ryder is possibly the most technically fluent batsmen playing the game at the moment, I never got a chance to see Sir Frank Worrell bat, but the description of him as playing grammatically correct shots could equally be made of Ryder's batting in tests. - he does lose his aesthetic pleasentness somewhat in limited overs cricket however)

Of the 38 players who have averaged adding more than 60 after 20 in history, more than half (21) have played in the 2000's. The top 5 are Bradman (obviously), Amiss, Tendulkar, Steve Waugh and Kallis.

It certainly adds something to watch for during the next test match series.