Friday, 5 July 2019

World Cup Simulation update - 5 July

Here's the latest update for the world cup simulation. I have New Zealand at 100%, but that's simply due to the probability of Pakistan getting the required run-rate being so low that that possibility never eventuated in the 50000 trials that I used. The probability of Pakistan going through is slightly lower than the probability of someone being shot accidentally by a dog running along a beach while holding a handgun in it's mouth during the next week,
The next graph is the expected points. The simulation has had the correct top 4 from the second match on, however, the expected points and the order of the teams have changed considerably

The top 4 was looking fairly likely from about match number 6 on. There was some excitement from the two upset losses by England, but Pakistan never got beyond 40% on the simulation.

The complete make up of the semi-finalists has not yet been decided, nor has the team in 5th place. Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka could all end up 5th. 

Next I looked at the winning probability. This is getting close to the point where it can be calculated analytically without much trouble.
 The next thing to look at is the rankings. A thing to remember here is that it is all relative to Afghanistan, so everybody going up is more an indication that Afghanistan has gone down.

The order that the teams are in here is the same as David Kendix' official rankings order, with one exception - I have India ahead of England, rather than the other way round.

Finally, a little graph to show what Pakistan needs to do to make the semi-finals. They need to keep Bangladesh below the green line.



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