Thursday, 6 June 2019

World cup simulation update

Just before the World Cup started I wrote a post about a simulation that I had written to find the teams chances of making the semi-finals and chances of winning.

I've spent quite a bit of time improving it over the past week or so, learning some new machine learning techniques to improve my rankings etc.

Below are 3 graphs that show the change in rankings, semi-final probability and win likelihood.



These rankings are all relative to Afghanistan (who are first in the alphabet) Afghanistan will always be on 0. Every other team will change around them. any team ranked lower than them will get a negative rating.
The new model gave New Zealand and South Africa lower chances of making it, and Bangladesh and Australia higher chances of making it. South Africa have dropped lower still, while West Indies and Bangladesh have made up ground.

New Zealand has moved ahead of South Africa into the 4th most likely to win, but both teams are still at fairly long odds.

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