|session 1a||NZ 35/3 off 11||Australia|
|session 1b||NZ 38/3 off 12||Australia|
|session 2a||NZ 61/1 off 17||New Zealand|
|session 2b||NZ 16/3 off 5.5||Australia|
|session 3a||Aus 12/1 off 4.2||New Zealand|
|session 1a||Aus 46/4 off 20.4||New Zealand|
|session 1b||Aus 23/2 off 11||New Zealand|
|session 2a||Aus 50/2 off 12.5||Australia|
|session 2b||Aus 5/1 off 2.1||New Zealand|
|NZ 29/0 off 10|
|session 3a||NZ 44/3 off 13||Australia|
|session 3b||NZ 66/0 off 21||New Zealand|
New Zealand lead the mini-session count 6-5 at the moment. They are slightly ahead in the game, but day three looms as a difficult proposition. The weather forecast is for overnight and early morning rain. I'm not an expert on Hobart's weather systems, but in most coastal places the weather changes with the tide, and the tide changes at about 8:30, so I'd say it is likely that either the rain stops then, and the game should start on time or it continues throughout the morning session, and we hardly get any play until after lunch. Either way the pitch should freshen up again in the first session, with sweating likely to occur under the covers. However the pitch has had a couple of days of use, so it should dry out quite quickly. It is likely to be quite difficult to play on for the first 30 minutes or so, and then for the first 2 or 3 overs after any rain breaks.
Williamson seems to be particularly vulnerable straight after a break, so this could be to Australia's favour. If there are no wickets fall in the first 30 minutes, and no rain round, then it could be a long day in the field for Australia. One real key on this wicket will be the confidence of the batsmen and bowlers. When the batsmen start getting tentative because of a couple that move significantly, their footwork tends to become less assured, and they get in the wrong place to play the ball. The ball moving has a similar effect on the bowler, except that they start bowling more attacking lengths and allow the batsmen to play bad shots. We have just witnessed two days of this phenomenon.
If Taylor and Williamson ride out this storm, then they will be transmitting calmness to Brownlie, Young (who is due a good score), Bracewell and Southee. A sensible batting effort could bring a score in the region of 350. That would probably be a bridge too far for Australia, who will be likely to have to bat twice in the tricky morning session in order to get there. However 2 quick wickets tomorrow morning could quickly turn into 7 quick wickets, and Australia having to chase 200 on an improving deck.
If New Zealand are to win this game the first hour of play will be vital. That's where the interest is for me.