Using Added Value to measure cricket performances - Part 1

The palpable drop in air pressure from 41000 people collectively inhaling is something that is hard to understand unless you've experienced it. Dale Steyn was bowling to Grant Elliott.

Eden Park in full World Cup mode.

Elliott had been a controversial selection. In the first 5 matches he averaged 19.25 at a strike rate just below 82. That's hardly justifying the selectors faith in you.  However, an important innings against Bangladesh, followed by a breathtaking 27 off 11 against West Indies gave him momentum going into this match. Often the concept of momentum is a case of us over-fitting. We see a couple of good performances back to back and assume a causative effect, where there really probably isn't one. However, regardless of the causes, Elliott was playing the sort of innings that quickly made the critics forget that they had been calling for the coach's head for selecting him before the tournament.

There was a significant obstacle in his road to glory. Dale Steyn. Quite possibly the best bowler to have ever strapped on a pair of boots. Throughout history there have been terrifying bowlers. Fred Spofforth, Jeff Thompson, Andy Roberts, Waqar Younis and Brett Lee are examples. There have also been bowlers who could work a batsman out and exploit weaknesses unmercifully. Alec Bedser, Richard Hadlee, Wasim Akram and Glenn McGrath all shared this trait. In Steyn, South Africa had someone who was in both camps. Possibly only Larwood, Truman, Lillee, Holding and Marshall have been there like Steyn.

But now there was 2 balls left, and 5 needed. Steyn with his tail up bowling to Elliott on 78 off 72. Elliott had previously hit a bouncer for 6, and Steyn's last yorker had gone for 4. Eden Park's short straight boundary meant that bowling full was risky, and bowling short could ask for a top edge carrying for 6. Better instead to try to get him to hit to the longest boundary so Steyn opted for a length ball....

The palpable increase in air pressure from 41000 people collectively screaming with exhilaration as the ball clears the boundary is something hard to understand unless you've experienced it.

Is Brendan Taylor doing too much?

Happier times for Brendan Taylor: captain, but not keeper

Zimbabwe have just come off a convincing 5-0 series defeat to India. While that result was not particularly surprising, the lack of runs from Brendan Taylor, normally their best batsman, was a surprise.

Some of that may have been due to India having done their homework on him. Duncan Fletcher is a clever coach, and will have been aware that Taylor is capable of winning games almost single handedly with a big innings. In 128 innings against good opponents (test teams or Ireland) he has 6 ODI hundreds. To put that in context, at a similar point in his career, Jayasuriya had 5 ODI hundreds. It would have been, therefore, negligent of India to have not had specific plans for Taylor.

But as much as that may have been a factor in this series (and also potentially in the last two against West Indies and Bangladesh where Taylor was also ineffective) there was possibly something else going on. In the last few matches he has been keeping wickets and captaining the team. Some players thrive when given the gloves and the captaincy, but most players find their batting suffers when they are both captain and keeper.

2012 ODI Team of the year

Last year I came up with a system for picking a team of the year for ODI matches.

Last years team had an extra weighting for World Cup matches. This year there's an extra weighting for matches against top 9 opponents (Bangladesh have performed well enough this year that any results against them are certainly valid) and also for matches away from home.

Openers: Amla and Nasir Jamshed

This is only chosen based on what the players did as openers, and only from players who played at least 5 innings as an opener.

Name	Innings	Runs	Weighted Index
HM Amla (SA)	9	678	77.05
Nasir Jamshed (Pak)	8	462	58.69
G Gambhir (India)	13	570	39.44
DPMD Jayawardene (SL)	12	425	36.52
IR Bell (Eng)	11	549	36.31
AN Cook (Eng)	15	663	34.09
TM Dilshan (SL)	30	1119	33.61

Jamshed probably secured his spot in the team with his big innings against India in the last match of the year. A not out hundred against one of the top teams, away from home at close to a run a ball is certainly a good way to boost your ranking.

Top order: de Villiers, Kohli, Morgan

Name	Innings	Runs	Weighted Index
AB de Villiers (SA)	10	597	105.21
V Kohli (India)	17	1026	59.54
EJG Morgan (Eng)	12	364	53.57
KC Sangakkara (SL)	29	1184	33.92
MJ Clarke (Aus)	13	619	33.66
SK Raina (India)	13	326	31.61
BB McCullum (NZ)	10	416	31.58
LD Chandimal (SL)	26	800	29.31
JP Duminy (SA)	8	273	27.75

When I looked at the batting of players while they were keeping there wasn't much comparison. AB de Villiers was 1st on 116.7, then BJ Wattling on 70.2 and MS Dhoni on 57.4. Given the massive disparity, the next thing that the team needs is an all-rounder who can close out the batting. We already have a keeper, so we need someone who can make a contribution with the ball occasionally.

Closer: Sammy

Name	Matches	Batting	Bowling	Difference
DJG Sammy (WI)	17	33.06	25.75	7.31
AD Mathews (SL)	21	33.56	34.13	-0.57
DJ Hussey (Aus)	15	42.89	53.91	-11.02
AD Russell (WI)	14	26.75	40.29	-13.54

I was expecting Andre Russell to come out on top here, but he actually came out last of the players who had batted and bowled enough to count.

Bowlers: Narine, Abdur Razzak, Morne Morkel, Finn, Roach

Name	Matches	Average	E/r	Weighted Index
SP Narine (WI)	17	17.64	3.66	13.01
Abdur Razzak (Ban)	9	20.75	3.95	16.40
M Morkel (SA)	11	21.15	4.89	16.71
ST Finn (Eng)	14	20	4.2	16.81
KAJ Roach (WI)	8	19.88	5.07	16.98
RS Bopara (Eng)	14	25	3.43	17.16
Saeed Ajmal (Pak)	17	21.12	4.31	17.39
SR Watson (Aus)	14	23.05	4.27	17.46
CJ McKay (Aus)	17	23.88	4.52	18.80

I had to make some decisions on the formula, as neither England or Bangladesh had played away from home, so I used a different formula for these teams. It seems a fairly balanced bowling line up, with Roach, Finn and Morkel bringing the heat up front, and then Narine, Razzak and Sammy to take the pace off the ball later on.

So the full team:

Hashim Amla
Nasir Jamshed
AB de Villiers (w)
Virat Kohli
Eion Morgan
Darren Sammy (c)
Abdur Razzak
Morne Morkel
Steven Finn
Kemar Roach
Sunil Narine

I made Sammy the captain, because I think he is fantastic at getting the best out of his players.

Mini-Session Analysis, Second Test, Ind NZ, Bangalore, 2012

Here is the mini-session analysis for the second test between India and New Zealand at M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bangalore, India.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	New Zealand 45/1 off 15	New Zealand
1-1b	New Zealand 63/2 off 14	draw
1-2a	New Zealand 88/1 off 13.2	New Zealand
1-2b	New Zealand 44/1 off 16.4	India
1-3a	New Zealand 64/1 off 16	New Zealand
1-3b	New Zealand 24/0 off 6.3	New Zealand
2-1a	New Zealand 33/4 off 8.4	India
2-1b	India 63/2 off 21	New Zealand
2-2a	India 61/2 off 12	draw
2-2b	India 44/0 off 14	India
2-3a	India 57/1 off 11	India
2-3b	India 58/0 off 20	India
3-1a	India 52/4 off 13	New Zealand
3-1b	India 18/1 off 5.5	New Zealand
	New Zealand 29/0 off 5
3-2a	New Zealand 40/3 off 13	India
3-2b	New Zealand 67/1 off 17	New Zealand
3-3a	New Zealand 45/1 off 14	New Zealand
3-3b	New Zealand 64/4 off 20	India
4-1a	New Zealand 16/1 off 4.2	India
	India 67/0 off 11
4-1b	India 21/2 off 9	New Zealand
4-2a	India 59/0 off 12.5	India
4-3a	India 27/3 off 12.1	New Zealand
4-3b	India 39/0 off 11	India
4-3c	India 49/0 off 7.2	India

Latest update here. India win the match, after the mini-session count is tied 11-11

Tea, Day 1: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 2-1

An absorbing day of cricket. Punch and counter punch; featuring one of the best captain's innings you are likely to see. Taylor came out in the media before the match and said that New Zealand's batsmen needed to be more positive, and attack the bowling. He then went out and demonstrated what he meant.

He came in after the umpires again decided that the benefit of the doubt should go to the home side twice. The ball may have just clipped the off stump for McCullum's lbw, and may have flicked the bails for Williamson, but both of them were at best tight decisions, and have continued the trend of close calls going the way of India in this series.

Taylor could have responded to the team being under pressure by shutting up shop. He could have tried to get his eye in. Instead he started to swing the bat. His 18 boundaries have covered almost all the points of the clock, with only 12 o'clock and 5 o'clock missing out so far.

Taylor needs 11 more runs to become the fastest New Zealand batsman to score 3000 runs in terms of matches (one behind Martin Crowe in terms of innings). New Zealand have to a chance to get over 300, and allow their bowlers something to bowl at.

Final drinks, Day 1: New Zealand leads the mini-session count 3-1

The third hour that New Zealand have scored at more than a run a minute. To be over 300 before the end of the day would be something that the New Zealand team could hardly have dreamed of after the debacle at Hyderabad.

The Indian bowing has been exactly what the modern game tends to provide. Defensive bowling to attacking fields or attacking bowling to defensive fields. There had been a bit too much leg-side filth, trying to bore the batsmen out for my liking, but to be fair it seems to have worked against Guptill and Taylor.

The new ball will be interesting. I'd expect the spinners will get a bowl with it, rather than the quicks, but the extra bounce might be quite dangerous.

Stumps, Day 1: New Zealand leads the mini-session count 4-1

It's New Zealand's day here. 3 players in particular really took it to the Indians, first Guptill, then Taylor and finally van Wyk. Ojha was the lone bright light for India. He looks like he is the sort of bowler who is good against quality batsmen, similar to Trent Boult for New Zealand. Often the rule is that you take the ball away from the batsmen, but bring it into the bowlers. Ashwin started to look more dangerous once Taylor was out. While he didn't manage to get Bracewell out, he did manage to make him look troubled a couple of times.

It's a truism that the next morning is going to be vital. However If New Zealand manage to bat through the first 4 or 5 overs without losing a wicket, they could potentially go on to score 400, and really make the Indian team work in the second innings. There is not likely to be a complete reversal of Hyderabad, but it's amazing what scoreboard pressure does to players.

Inning change over, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 4-2

A combination of good bowling, poor shots and some really bad luck saw New Zealand only add 33 runs for the loss of 4 wickets at the start of the day. India are certainly back in this game, but New Zealand still have the runs on the board, as the cliche goes.

The Indian response will be interesting.

Lunch, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 5-2

Another session, another tough decision against New Zealand. Sehwag looked to be out off the first ball from the second over. There may have been some doubt on height, but after seven decisions that had more doubt than that being given out in the last three innings, it was surprising to see the umpires finally giving the benefit of the doubt to the batsman.

The bad news for New Zealand is that Sehwag is not one to often squander a start against them. He has 7 centuries against New Zealand in international cricket. Once he is in he is a difficult man to stop. At the other end is Tendulkar. While he is hardly looking in vintage form, (4 off 41, no runs off his last 26 balls) the longer he bats, the closer he is to recovering his touch.

New Zealand need at least two more wickets before the clouds burn off. As the pitch is wearing quickly, they can't afford to give India a first innings lead.

Final drinks, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 5-4

On the first day we saw a fantastic counter-attack from Taylor, assisted by Flynn and van Wyk. Today it was Kohli, assisted by Raina and Dhoni. The game is quite even going into the last hour. We really have an absorbing test match on our hands here.

Stumps, Day 2: The mini-session count is tied 5-5

The game is now probably slightly in India's favour. New Zealand can not afford to allow India a lead, as the New Zealand lineup is not as suited to playing on a wearing pitch.

It's been a great partnership from Kohli and Dhoni, but batting will be more difficult in the morning with (probably) some cloud cover and a new ball. Again the first hour will be really important.

Tea, Day 3: New Zealand leads the mini-session count 8-6

This game is still very evenly poised. Both teams are yet to really grab the game by the scruff of the neck. New Zealand are probably still 150 runs from a score that's likely to win, but even chasing 200 will be difficult on this pitch for India.

The star of the day has been Tim Southee. His 7/64 is one of the best ever returns for a New Zealand bowler. He really took the spotlight off Virat Kohli's fantastic hundred. Kohli has scored 450 runs in his last 5 tests, at an average over 50.

Stumps, Day 3: New Zealand leads the mini-session count 9-7

R Ashwin has managed to get India back into the game. The second one side looks like they are winning, the other one strikes back. This is test match cricket at its' most absorbing.

Going into day 4, there is almost certainly going to be a result (unless there is some terrible weather or a phenomenal rear guard effort by Patel and Boult tomorrow.) We may even have the exciting prospect of a day 5 with a very small number of runs needed, and only a couple of wickets in hand.

First drinks, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 9-8

A very aggressive start from India, after another horrible decision to end New Zealand's innings.

Sehwag and Gambhir have looked like they are playing an ODI match. If they keep this up, the game will escape New Zealand very quickly.

Lunch, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 10-8

The roller-coaster lurches again. This test is starting to feel like the Hobart one. Tendulkar looks all at sea against Boult, but if anyone can battle through a bad patch, it's him. There is still a lot of work for New Zealand to do, but the momentum is back with them at the moment.

Rain break, post lunch, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 10-9

India have taken hold of this match. It will take either some very poor cricket from India, some very good cricket from New Zealand or a combination of both for India to lose this now.

Brendon McCullum's missed stumping may prove to be very costly.


Final drinks, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 11-10

It looked like India's game at lunch. Then an hour later it was New Zealand's. Now Dhoni and Kohli have taken back control. Is there another twist?

End of match: The mini-session count was tied 11-11

India won the match, mostly due to the batting of Virat Kohli. The rest of the teams cancelled each other out, but he shone above everyone else. When Dravid described him as India's best batsman in all three formats, he was not exaggerating to make a point. Kohli has turned potential into delivery. There is a long time to go, but at the moment he is truly a wonderful batsman.

Preview - Aus Ind 4th Test Adelaide 11/12

While the series is dead, this match is potentially the most interesting.

Australia are wanting to end this series on a high note. India need redemption.

There is going to be a spotlight on both wicket keepers. Haddin desperately needs a good match. At the moment it is hard to see how he is keeping his spot. He doesn't look to be in as good form with the gloves as some of the keepers in the BBL, (although there is a big difference between test and domestic t20) and also seems to be batting out of a hole.

Saha has sat on the sidelines for about 38 years (it must feel like) watching Dhoni. Now he gets his chance. He is in good form with the bat, averaging 117 in his last 4 first class matches, and that might prove to be a welcome boost for India.

The transition from Dhoni's captaincy to Sehwag's will be interesting. Adelaide is a challenging place to captain a team, with very long straight boundaries and short square ones. Sehwag's last attempt on a pitch like this was vs NZ at McLean Park in Napier. New Zealand scored 619/9d at 4 an over after being 23/3. If he gets an opening like that against Australia he needs to capitalise on it, although that is a lot easier to say from my chair than his.

History would say that Adelaide offers the best chance for India. It is a batsman's ground, with both spinners and quick bowlers averaging over 40 there in the last 10 years. It is one of 14 grounds in the world to hold that distinction. Over the last 5 years India has played 13 matches at grounds in this category. They have won 4, lost 1 and drawn 8. Australia has played 8, won 1, lost 2 and drawn 5. In the last 3 games on these surfaces between the two countries, India have won 1, and 2 have been draws.

Likewise Austraia have had mixed results at Adelaide recently. The last 4 matches have seen a win and a loss, both by an innings and 2 draws. One of the draws was against India.

Things to watch for:

1. How does Saha go? It's one thing hitting unbeaten hundreds in Indian domestic cricket. Doing it in Australia is another issue.

2. How will VVS Laxman do? This pitch is likely to suit him more than the others, but he has been in such poor form it would not be surprising if he had another poor game.

3. Shaun Marsh. In all likely-hood this match is looking like a very important one for Marsh's career. He has underperformed badly so far this series, and while he has shown us that he is capable of succeeding, he needs to prove that he is more than another Marcus North by putting together a good innings (or 2) here.

4. India's fielding and running. Australia have scored 226 more runs than India in this series. However they have only scored 34 more runs in boundaries. Australia have run better, and been better at preventing India running. Australia's activity rate is roughly 0.34 while India are at about 0.25. Part of this is because Australia have been bowling more of a 5th/6th stump line, and slightly forward of a good length as their standard delivery, where as India have bowled a slightly shorter 4th stump as their standard delivery. The fuller wider bowling makes it harder to work singles, but easier to hit boundaries. However India still have had a number of opportunities to score more by running, and have let too many easy runs in through sloppy fielding. Will the change to Sehwag make a difference? I personally doubt it.

5. Forget Tendulkar's hundred, can anyone from India make one? So far India's top scores in this series is 83. They have had the same number of batsmen get to 50 as Australia, but 4 of the Australians managed to convert to 100's. Over the last 10 years Indian batsmen have scored one away century for every 17 innings. So far this test they have had 66 innings without one. Traditionally the probability of an Indian batsman getting to 100 once they had got to 50 away from home is about 30%. So we would have expected 4 centurys given that they had been past fifty 14 times. Surely that trend will break at the benign Adelaide Oval.

Betting tips.

The last couple of matches have not been good. My overall success rate has dropped from about 1.4 (40c profit from every dollar bet) to about 1.05, so hopefully I can make it up to you all this time round.

1. Kohli top Indian batsman 1st innings - $6.50 - He looks like he is coming into form. I'd pick this as about a 25% probability, which makes these good odds.

2. Harris top Australia bowler 1st innings - $3.50 - Lillee said that Adelaide suited bowlers who bowled good cutters. Harris seemed to do this in the bits of the last match that I watched. He also bowled much better than his figures indicated.

3. Tendulkar 86 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I genuinely think he will get his hundred here.

4. Saha 71 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I'd expect him to take at least 2 catches which is 20 points. Then 51 runs in 2 innings seems getable.

5. Siddle 110 and over - player performance - $1.83 - It wouldn't be a massive surprise if he picked up 2 wickets in one innings and 3 in the other, and chipped in with 20 with the bat.