Showing posts with label Saeed Ajmal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saeed Ajmal. Show all posts

Monday, 24 December 2012

Slow and steady?

There is a famous fable about a tortoise and a hare. They decide to have a race. The Hare runs off at great pace, gets close to the finish line and decides he is so far ahead he can afford to have a sleep. While he is sleeping, the tortoise catches up, over takes him, and finishes the race just as the hare is waking up. The moral of the story is supposed to be "slow and steady always wins the race."

Of course that moral is ridiculous. Slow and steady gets beaten by moderately fast and steady. Which in turn gets beaten by fast and steady. If slow and steady won the race I'd back myself to beat Ussain Bolt in the 100m. I reckon I can do it much slower than him.

However the true moral is that reliability is a very important virtue. And yet it is a very difficult one for us to take account of. There is inherently more interest in the unusual than the usual. Occasional exceptional performances are given more prominence in our memories than consistently good ones.

For example I can clearly remember Chris Pringle bowling a maiden in the last over of a match when Australia needed 2 runs to win. It was exceptional. Something that I'm never likely to see again. However I also watched a game where Gavin Larsen bowled 10 overs for 12 runs, including 5 maidens. I can't remember a single second of Larsen's performance. We tune out consistency, because it isn't memorable.

When asked who the best bowers in t20 cricket are, it is natural to tend towards the spectacular. We remember Mendis introducing the carrom ball and bamboozling everyone. We remember Malinga sending the stumps flying. We remember Narine, reviving the tradition of the West Indian mystery spinner like in the days of Sonny Ramadhin. We remember Warne saying how he was going to get McCullum out, and then doing it.

However we don't remember Samuel Badree, Daniel Vettori, Mohammed Hafeez, Nathan McCullum, Angelo Matthews or Darren Sammy. These names are ones that we remember, and can at times recall them doing something with the bat, or in the field, but their bowling tends to be unspectacular.

I was chatting with a top football coach recently, and he said to me "that Vettori chap, what he does must be harder than it looks." This guy has coached football at international level, and has been hugely successful at many different levels. His comment indicated the workings of a great sporting mind. He knows that often the things that look easy on a field take a lot more work than the things that look spectacular.

If we can't remember reliability, we need a metric to measure it. The standard cricket averages are not particularly helpful for this, as they can be skewed by occasional particularly good or particularly bad performances. Instead I decided to look at how often a bowler produces a good performance.

That in itself causes some problems. What is a good performance? In a t20 game, the aim of the bowlers is really to defend runs. Taking wickets is part of that, but often the real job is to not concede too may runs. So I'm going to define a good performance as being one where the bowler bowls at least 2 overs and conceded no more than a run a ball.

If every bowlers in the team did this, the maximium their opposition could score would be 120 plus any byes or leg byes. This is almost a guaranteed losing score, so there is some justification for defining 6 an over as a good target.

Here is a list of the number of good performances the top few bowlers have had. The innings column is innings where they have bowled at least 2 overs.

NameInningsInnings at 6rpo or less
Saeed Ajmal (Pak) 4728
Shahid Afridi (Pak) 5527
DL Vettori (NZ) 3324
NL McCullum (NZ) 3520
J Botha (SA) 3618
Umar Gul (Pak) 4918
BAW Mendis (SL) 2717
GP Swann (Eng) 3817
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak) 3116
DT Johnston (Ire) 2515
DW Steyn (SA) 2815
M Morkel (SA) 3013
DJG Sammy (WI) 3113
SCJ Broad (Eng) 4113
AD Mathews (SL) 2512
Harbhajan Singh (India) 2411
SL Malinga (SL) 3811

The two names at the top of the list have both bowled in a lot of matches, which is what we would expect. Matthew Hayden scored more centuries, fifties and overall more runs than Don Bradman, but it took him a lot more matches to do it. There won't be many people claiming that Hayden was better than Bradman. It's because the number of good performances themselves are not so important as how often you did them.

So I sorted the table by percentages. The numbers were quite interesting really:

NameInningsInnings at 6rpo or lessReliability
DL Vettori (NZ) 332472.73%
BAW Mendis (SL) 271762.96%
DT Johnston (Ire) 251560.00%
Saeed Ajmal (Pak) 472859.57%
NL McCullum (NZ) 352057.14%
GH Dockrell (Ire) 181055.56%
DW Steyn (SA) 281553.57%
DJ Hussey (Aus) 191052.63%
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak) 311651.61%
J Botha (SA) 361850.00%
Shahid Afridi (Pak) 552749.09%
AD Mathews (SL) 251248.00%
Harbhajan Singh (India) 241145.83%
GP Swann (Eng) 381744.74%
M Morkel (SA) 301343.33%
DJG Sammy (WI) 311341.94%
KMDN Kulasekara (SL) 241041.67%

Some of the names at the top of the list are spectacular players: Ajantha Mendis, Saeed Ajmal and Dale Steyn. But there are more of the other sort. Well ahead of the pack is Daniel Vettori, but also Trent Johnston, Nathan McCullum, George Dockrell, Dave Hussey and Mohammad Hafeez.

It's players in this second group that often get forgotten when great teams are picked. One of my favourite cricket analysts, Gary Naylor, wrote an interesting piece about greatness. His definition of greatness is one that relies on the aesthetics of the player. Gavin Larsen could never be a great under that criteria.

And yet perhaps better than being great is being consistently good. Glenn McGrath was consistently good. Shaun Pollock was consistently good. Whereas Brett Lee and Alan Donald were spectacular. We remember Donald, and forget Pollock, despite Pollock having had a much better record.

So I challenge you to look at a different type of greatness. The greatness of being consistently good. Next time you see Nathan McCullum or Mohammad Hafeez bowling, stop to admire how they manage to get fantastic results, without ever looking like fantastic bowlers. That is a form of greatness in itself.

Friday, 30 December 2011

Test team of the year

I put together an ODI team of the year, and I'm going to use a similar method for test team of the year.

The first thing that needs to be decided on is the balance of the team. Often the successful teams play with 4 bowlers and one batsman who can contribute with the ball. (There has only been one game this year where a team has won with only using 4 bowlers)

This time rather than using matches at the World cup as a premium, I'm looking at away matches as the premium. This year we have seen some very good performances by home teams, and only a few by away teams, so there needs to be a bonus for teams performing away from home. (For the purpose of this I don't consider games in UAE as away games for either team)

Openers, Alastair Cook & Tino Mawayo

This was selected from batsmen who had played at least 6 innings as openers.

The selection was fairly straight-forward

PlayerMatchesRunsActual AveragePoints
AN Cook (Eng)892784.2784.31
TMK Mawoyo (Zim)331062.0059.17
Taufeeq Umar (Pak)1083146.1646.55
DA Warner (Aus)319548.7543.84
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak)1064740.4336.41
V Sibanda (Zim)327245.3336.40
GC Smith (SA)532240.2536.20

In reality Tino Mawoyo's first class record suggest it is unlikely that he will turn out to be a world class opener, but he has produced world class numbers this year (including carrying his bat for a particularly memorable 453 ball epic 163* against Pakistan). And Zimbabwe has produced some outstanding batsmen in their short test history.

Number 3 Rahul Dravid

This was not so straight forward, as the runs below were not just scored at number 3. Dravid did better when he opened the batting, and Amla did worse the one innings that he didn't bat at number 3. Sangakkara scored the most runs, but didn't manage any not out's so his average suffered accordingly.

PlayerMatchesRunsActual AveragePoints
R Dravid (India)12114557.2559.05
KA Edwards (WI)659554.0953.12
SE Marsh (Aus)428741.0048.67
Azhar Ali (Pak)1073245.7545.14
KC Sangakkara (SL)11103449.2343.93
HM Amla (SA)542347.0042.27
IJL Trott (Eng)636540.5536.47

Numbers 4 & 5 Younis Khan & Ian Bell

Ian Bell has batted at 6 for this year, but he has been a specialist batsman, rather than an all-rounder.

PlayerMatchesRunsActual AveragePoints
IR Bell (Eng)8950118.75110.24
Younis Khan (Pak)876585.0083.93
Misbah-ul-Haq (Pak)1076569.5475.15
KP Pietersen (Eng)873173.1065.07
DG Brownlie (NZ)326853.6060.76
S Chanderpaul (WI)864653.8354.21
DM Bravo (WI)1094949.9453.91
BRM Taylor (Zim)335871.6050.44
SR Tendulkar (India)975647.2549.62
MEK Hussey (Aus)968042.5048.18
TT Samaraweera (SL)750141.7546.82
Shakib Al Hasan (Ban)545150.1146.54
JH Kallis (SA)535951.2846.12

All rounder Mike Hussey

This was a surprise. I was expecting Shakib, Watson, Vettori or Kallis to come out on top here. Hussey was hardly a front-line bowler, but we are only looking for someone who can contribute, and of the players that do that he has been the most effective this year. Kallis has not exactly had a vintage year with the ball, bowling 61 overs for 232 runs. Watson however has been outstanding with the ball, but surprisingly poor with the bat, especially since I thought I remembered him batting really well.

PlayerBattingBowlingDifference
MEK Hussey (Aus) 48.1817.9730.21
Shakib Al Hasan (Ban) 46.5430.6615.88
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak) 36.4122.6613.75
DL Vettori (NZ) 40.2327.6812.55
AD Mathews (SL) 40.5230.589.94
R Ashwin (India) 34.5927.257.34
SR Watson (Aus) 23.8217.146.68
Azhar Ali (Pak) 45.1438.926.22
DJG Sammy (WI) 18.1930.13-11.94
TM Dilshan (SL) 35.2153.45-18.24
MN Samuels (WI) 32.5154.06-21.55
IJL Trott (Eng) 36.47110.09-73.62
JH Kallis (SA) 46.12257.98-211.86

Wicketkeeper Matt Prior

This was the easiest decision of all.

Matt Prior is so far above the rest of the keepers in terms of batting that he really selects himself. His numbers don't indicate that he is the best keeper, but given that he concedes about 5 byes per innings, but his adjusted average is about 25 runs more than the next best with the bat, he can't be overlooked.

Here is the batting stats for everyone who averaged 35 or higher:

PlayerMatchesRunsActual AveragePoints
MJ Prior (Eng)851964.8764.90
T Taibu (Zim)326744.5039.17
Adnan Akmal (Pak)821135.1636.54
Mushfiqur Rahim (Ban)534037.7735.07

And their byes stats:

NameByesDeliveriesByes/100 overs
Adnan Akmal (Pak)2685591.82
T Taibu (Zim)1525813.49
Mushfiqur Rahim (Ban)3447414.30
MJ Prior (Eng)6580964.82

The intangible is dropped catches. It is more work than I'm prepared to do to go back and count the number of catches dropped. If Adnan or Taibu had not dropped any catches, and Prior dropped 1 per game, then there would be a difficult decision, but given that we don't have any data we have to proceed on the understanding that there is no significant difference between them.

Bowlers James Pattinson, Shane Watson, Doug Bracewell and Saeed Ajmal

Here I decided that a bowler had to have bowled 90 overs. I got this number as it was roughly the lower quartile of bowlers who had bowled in 5 innings. This was better than just using 5 innings, as measuring in overs allows more consistency (someone who bowls 2 overs in each of 5 innings just giving a rest to the other bowlers and picks up 3 wickets for 55 runs because the batsmen are slogging him would end up with a very good average despite not being a front-line bowler - for a less extreme version of this see Mike Hussey) Unfortunately Vernon Philander just missed out on this.

I also needed to have at least 2 quick bowlers and at least 1 spinner. The final position comes down to performance (although in reality it would probably come down to the conditions). As a result I have picked Saeed Ajmal, as the best spinner.

NameMatchesOversWicketsActual AverageWeighted Average
JL Pattinson (Aus)398.52015.2016.90
SR Watson (Aus)6113.51419.0717.14
DAJ Bracewell (NZ)31011619.2517.39
TT Bresnan (Eng)4139.32119.0920.95
Z Khan (India)3114.21323.1521.46
DW Steyn (SA)5178.42819.5721.76
Saeed Ajmal (Pak)84875023.8621.97
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak)101671525.9322.66
Aizaz Cheema (Pak)4146.41924.7823.38
U Yadav (India)396.31622.9323.42
P Kumar (India)6268.32725.8123.92
Abdur Rehman (Pak)84123626.2724.39
SCJ Broad (Eng)7270.23322.3024.80
PP Ojha (India)3177.22022.5025.02
Umar Gul (Pak)8287.53425.6725.09
JM Anderson (Eng)7296.23524.8525.57
R Rampaul (WI)8283.13125.0326.20
R Ashwin (India)42212624.8027.25
DL Vettori (NZ)4228.11627.1227.68
CS Martin (NZ)51922029.4527.94
NM Lyon (Aus)8198.42327.4728.64
CT Tremlett (Eng)5207.42327.1729.71
HMRKB Herath (SL)10470.14129.0729.92

Most of the players selected have not played much cricket, and just scrape in on overs bowled. If we extended that to 150 overs required the line up would be Dale Steyn, Praveen Kumar, Saeed Ajmal and Mohammad Hafeez.

The team (in batting order)

Alastair Cook
Tino Mawoyo
Rahul Dravid
Younis Khan
Michael Hussey
Ian Bell
Matt Prior
Shane Watson
Doug Bracewell
James Pattinson
Saeed Ajmal

12th man Mohammad Hafeez

Surprisingly there are no South Africans or Sri Lankans in the team. There are also no West Indians or Bangladeshis either.

That's my stats based team. What is your team?