Showing posts with label Mohammed Hafeez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mohammed Hafeez. Show all posts

Monday, 24 December 2012

Slow and steady?

There is a famous fable about a tortoise and a hare. They decide to have a race. The Hare runs off at great pace, gets close to the finish line and decides he is so far ahead he can afford to have a sleep. While he is sleeping, the tortoise catches up, over takes him, and finishes the race just as the hare is waking up. The moral of the story is supposed to be "slow and steady always wins the race."

Of course that moral is ridiculous. Slow and steady gets beaten by moderately fast and steady. Which in turn gets beaten by fast and steady. If slow and steady won the race I'd back myself to beat Ussain Bolt in the 100m. I reckon I can do it much slower than him.

However the true moral is that reliability is a very important virtue. And yet it is a very difficult one for us to take account of. There is inherently more interest in the unusual than the usual. Occasional exceptional performances are given more prominence in our memories than consistently good ones.

For example I can clearly remember Chris Pringle bowling a maiden in the last over of a match when Australia needed 2 runs to win. It was exceptional. Something that I'm never likely to see again. However I also watched a game where Gavin Larsen bowled 10 overs for 12 runs, including 5 maidens. I can't remember a single second of Larsen's performance. We tune out consistency, because it isn't memorable.

When asked who the best bowers in t20 cricket are, it is natural to tend towards the spectacular. We remember Mendis introducing the carrom ball and bamboozling everyone. We remember Malinga sending the stumps flying. We remember Narine, reviving the tradition of the West Indian mystery spinner like in the days of Sonny Ramadhin. We remember Warne saying how he was going to get McCullum out, and then doing it.

However we don't remember Samuel Badree, Daniel Vettori, Mohammed Hafeez, Nathan McCullum, Angelo Matthews or Darren Sammy. These names are ones that we remember, and can at times recall them doing something with the bat, or in the field, but their bowling tends to be unspectacular.

I was chatting with a top football coach recently, and he said to me "that Vettori chap, what he does must be harder than it looks." This guy has coached football at international level, and has been hugely successful at many different levels. His comment indicated the workings of a great sporting mind. He knows that often the things that look easy on a field take a lot more work than the things that look spectacular.

If we can't remember reliability, we need a metric to measure it. The standard cricket averages are not particularly helpful for this, as they can be skewed by occasional particularly good or particularly bad performances. Instead I decided to look at how often a bowler produces a good performance.

That in itself causes some problems. What is a good performance? In a t20 game, the aim of the bowlers is really to defend runs. Taking wickets is part of that, but often the real job is to not concede too may runs. So I'm going to define a good performance as being one where the bowler bowls at least 2 overs and conceded no more than a run a ball.

If every bowlers in the team did this, the maximium their opposition could score would be 120 plus any byes or leg byes. This is almost a guaranteed losing score, so there is some justification for defining 6 an over as a good target.

Here is a list of the number of good performances the top few bowlers have had. The innings column is innings where they have bowled at least 2 overs.

NameInningsInnings at 6rpo or less
Saeed Ajmal (Pak) 4728
Shahid Afridi (Pak) 5527
DL Vettori (NZ) 3324
NL McCullum (NZ) 3520
J Botha (SA) 3618
Umar Gul (Pak) 4918
BAW Mendis (SL) 2717
GP Swann (Eng) 3817
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak) 3116
DT Johnston (Ire) 2515
DW Steyn (SA) 2815
M Morkel (SA) 3013
DJG Sammy (WI) 3113
SCJ Broad (Eng) 4113
AD Mathews (SL) 2512
Harbhajan Singh (India) 2411
SL Malinga (SL) 3811

The two names at the top of the list have both bowled in a lot of matches, which is what we would expect. Matthew Hayden scored more centuries, fifties and overall more runs than Don Bradman, but it took him a lot more matches to do it. There won't be many people claiming that Hayden was better than Bradman. It's because the number of good performances themselves are not so important as how often you did them.

So I sorted the table by percentages. The numbers were quite interesting really:

NameInningsInnings at 6rpo or lessReliability
DL Vettori (NZ) 332472.73%
BAW Mendis (SL) 271762.96%
DT Johnston (Ire) 251560.00%
Saeed Ajmal (Pak) 472859.57%
NL McCullum (NZ) 352057.14%
GH Dockrell (Ire) 181055.56%
DW Steyn (SA) 281553.57%
DJ Hussey (Aus) 191052.63%
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak) 311651.61%
J Botha (SA) 361850.00%
Shahid Afridi (Pak) 552749.09%
AD Mathews (SL) 251248.00%
Harbhajan Singh (India) 241145.83%
GP Swann (Eng) 381744.74%
M Morkel (SA) 301343.33%
DJG Sammy (WI) 311341.94%
KMDN Kulasekara (SL) 241041.67%

Some of the names at the top of the list are spectacular players: Ajantha Mendis, Saeed Ajmal and Dale Steyn. But there are more of the other sort. Well ahead of the pack is Daniel Vettori, but also Trent Johnston, Nathan McCullum, George Dockrell, Dave Hussey and Mohammad Hafeez.

It's players in this second group that often get forgotten when great teams are picked. One of my favourite cricket analysts, Gary Naylor, wrote an interesting piece about greatness. His definition of greatness is one that relies on the aesthetics of the player. Gavin Larsen could never be a great under that criteria.

And yet perhaps better than being great is being consistently good. Glenn McGrath was consistently good. Shaun Pollock was consistently good. Whereas Brett Lee and Alan Donald were spectacular. We remember Donald, and forget Pollock, despite Pollock having had a much better record.

So I challenge you to look at a different type of greatness. The greatness of being consistently good. Next time you see Nathan McCullum or Mohammad Hafeez bowling, stop to admire how they manage to get fantastic results, without ever looking like fantastic bowlers. That is a form of greatness in itself.

Sunday, 1 July 2012

Mini-session Analysis 2nd test SL Pak SSC

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the second test between Sri Lanka and Pakistan at Sinhalese Sports Club, Colombo, Sri Lanka.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-SessionScoreWinner
1-1aPakistan 39/0 off 14Pakistan
1-1bPakistan 55/1 off 14Pakistan
1-2aPakistan 70/0 off 16Pakistan
1-2bPakistan 53/0 off 13Pakistan
1-3aPakistan 62/0 off 14Pakistan
1-3bPakistan 55/0 off 19Pakistan
2-1aPakistan 37/1 off 15Sri Lanka
2-1bPakistan 33/0 off 10.2Pakistan
2-2aPakistan 61/1 off 13.4Pakistan
2-2bPakistan 23/1 off 5.2Sri Lanka
3-1aPakistan 63/2 off 12.4Pakistan
3-1bSri Lanka 70/1 off 15Sri Lanka
4-1aSri Lanka 36/0 off 12Sri Lanka
4-1bSri Lanka 29/0 off 12Sri Lanka
4-2aSri Lanka 43/0 off 17Sri Lanka
4-3aSri Lanka 58/1 off 14Sri Lanka
4-3bSri Lanka 42/3 off 15.4Pakistan
5-1aSri Lanka 30/0 off 16.2Draw
5-1bSri Lanka 59/0 off 14Sri Lanka
5-2aSri Lanka 24/5 off 8.4Pakistan
5-2bPakistan 99/2 off 16.4Pakistan
5-3aPakistan 1/0 off 1.2Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka 55/1 off 14
5-3bSri Lanka 31/1 off 8Sri Lanka

Latest update click here.

Stumps, Day 1: Pakistan lead the count 6-0

An even more dominant day than Sri Lanka's first day in the last test. 6-0. Today was all about Mohammed Hafeez. He was patient at first, (he had only scored 12 off 62). He had a lucky reprieve just after he brought up his century, getting strangled off a no ball. But 172 is his highest test score, and he only needs 9 more for it to become his highest first class score.

There is a small asterix beside this, as this is the SSC, and it has been a haven for top 3 batsmen recently (average score for the top 3 in the last 2 years at SSC is over 60), but this cannot take away the outstanding effort that Hafeez has made. He has almost put his team into a no lose situation. Sri Lanka are going to have to bat a long time if they want to take a series lead to Pallekele. Which means that we could have some absorbing mental battles coming up as the Pakistani bowlers try and wear down the Sri Lankan batsmen.

Stumps, Day 2: Pakistan lead 8-2

Now there is hope for Sri Lanka. Just over half of the days play was lost to rain, and the mission for Sri Lanka just got a lot easier. They will not need to last as long as they would have, and the pitch is a lot less likely to break up.

However it does bring Abdul Rehman into the game. When Pakistan played New Zealand he was absolutely toothless on the dry tracks. But once there was some moisture he suddenly looked like Bishan Bedi and Alf Valentine's lovechild. A slightly sticky track and he might become a real handful.

If the first day was about Mohammed Hafeez, the second day was about Azhar Ali. He hit his third test century, equaling his previous best of 157 (scored against England at Dubai). But the real thing to notice was his strike rate today. He normally scores at just under 40 runs per 100 balls. Today he scored 65 off 108. That's a strike rate of over 60. It was exactly what the team needed, but it was still a surprise. The strike rate from the other end was even more of a surprise, and an obvious sign of team tactics. Misbah-ul-Haq scored 29 off 40, at a strike rate of over 70. These are two of the slowest batsmen in world cricket, scoring at well over 50, a clear sign that the Pakistan team were trying to increase the pace, in order to get enough time to bowl Sri Lanka out.

It will be interesting to see their approach in the morning session, as their tail is hardly noted for lathering it to all parts. The big question is if 550 odd will be enough to make Sri Lanka follow on. I don't think that it will be personally, but it will be interesting to find out.

Stumps, Day 3: Pakistan lead the count 9-3

There is still time for Pakistan to win, but the chances are increasingly unlikely. Misbah played his part perfectly, scored the runs at a rapid pace then declared inside the first hour. Junaid bowled well, but then Dilshan did what Dilshan does best and counter-attacked beautifully. A day of good cricket and bad weather.

Stumps, Day 4: Pakistan lead the count 10-7

I wouldn't be surprised if this match is called off at lunch tomorrow. Sri Lanka have almost done what they needed to do in order to secure their series lead. Dilshan played a controlled, mature innings (which was a surprise) as did Sangakkara (which was not a surprise). Pakistan made some progress in the final session, but they are unlikely to have sufficient time to finish the match. A test match is supposed to go for about 450 overs. This one has one day to go and is at 232.4, only just over half way. It makes me wonder if the idea of a reserve day for tests is a good idea. It can only be used if less than a certain number of overs have been bowled at the end of the 5th day, possibly 400, and the overs available can not allow the match to go over 450 overs, but it could make games like this one have much more life in them.

First drinks break, Day 5: Pakistan lead the count 10-7

Sri Lanka edge slowly towards the follow on target. Once they reach that hopefully the captains and umpires will call the game off. Hopefully.

Stumps, Day 5: Pakistan win the count 12-10, but the match is a draw.

But what a draw. I apologise to anyone if they stopped following the game due to me thinking it was dead. 5 wickets in an hour, and then a good declaration from Misbah brought this game back to life. Imagine if there was a reserve day.

Junaid Khan becomes possible the first person to take only 5 wickets in a match where two batsmen scored 190's and win the man of the match. However it was the correct decision. On a pitch where every other bowler struggled, he knocked over some of the best batsmen in the world, and remained threatening throughout the match.

I'm glad that they didn't call it off at lunch, and I'm sure any spectators there are too.

Monday, 20 February 2012

Penny-pinching Misers

I've recently watched the movie Moneyball. The idea of a killer stat is interesting, and it is interesting if such a thing exists in cricket.

In baseball getting on base is the primary objective when batting. There are times that other things are ideal, but getting on base is always a good thing. Compare this with batting in limited overs cricket. If the team needs 8 of the last 2 balls, and you hit a single, you are making it extremely unlikely for your team to win the game. (Unless you have Andre Adams at the other end, and Graeme Aldridge is bowling). However if you need 2 runs off 7 balls, and Bruce Reid at the other end, a single is a great thing.

Likewise if you are chasing 324, scoring 110 off 155 deliveries is really making it difficult for your team to win. But scoring 101 off 143 when your team is chasing 197 on a tricky pitch is an outstanding effort.

However it is rarely true in recent times that a bowler can bowl 9 or more overs and concede less than 50 runs and it be a bad effort. If a bowler stops batsmen from scoring runs, they are doing their job. Over the past 5 years when teams restrict their opponents to 250 or less they win roughly 2/3 of the matches. To put that in perspective South Africa has the 2nd best winning record in that time, winning about 2/3 of their matches. To put it another way, If Bangladesh managed to keep their opponents to 250 or less every match they would be likely to have the best winning record in Asia.

As a result, bowlers who can regularly keep their runs conceded under 50 are very valuable for a team. Which leads to the question: who are the best at doing it?

PlayerBowled 9 or more oversConceded 50 or lessPercentage
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak) 242291.7%
GP Swann (Eng) 383386.8%
DL Vettori (NZ) 534584.9%
J Botha (Afr/SA) 413482.9%
RW Price (Zim) 544481.5%
Shakib Al Hasan (Ban) 685276.5%
KMDN Kulasekara (SL) 372875.7%
M Muralitharan (SL) 413175.6%
B Lee (Aus) 282175.0%
BAW Mendis (SL) 312374.2%
Saeed Ajmal (Pak) 372773.0%
NW Bracken (Aus) 332472.7%
P Utseya (Zim) 543972.2%
DJG Sammy (WI) 282071.4%
Shahid Afridi (Pak) 785469.2%


In that list of 14, there are 10 finger spinners. Some of them don't often bowl that many overs, and only get to bowl that many if things are going well for them, such as Mohammed Hafeez, Nuwan Kulasekera or Darren Sammy, however the other 9 finger spinners are in the 13 most likely bowlers to bowl 9 or more overs.

If we give in to conventional wisdom that we need pace bowlers in a team to give the bowling line up balance, we need to know who are the most reliable pace bowlers. Here are the equivalent numbers for the quick(er) bowlers.

PlayerBowled 9 or more oversConceded 50 or lessPercentage
KMDN Kulasekara (SL) 372875.7%
B Lee (Aus) 282175.0%
NW Bracken (Aus) 332472.7%
DJG Sammy (WI) 282071.4%
Z Khan (India) 523465.4%
MG Johnson (Aus) 543463.0%
Mashrafe Mortaza (Ban) 372362.2%
KD Mills (NZ) 352160.0%
SL Malinga (SL) 442454.5%
JM Anderson (Eng) 563053.6%
SCJ Broad (Eng) 532750.9%


An equivalent table for wrist-spin bowlers is rather redundant, as it would only contain Shahid Afridi, as the only wrist spinner to have 20 or more innings where he has bowled 9 or more and conceded 50 or less in the past 5 years.

Perhaps this would suggest that if we were going to pick a stats-based world team for an ODI, our bowlers might be best to have Kulasekara and Lee opening the bowling, Hafeez and Sammy as our all-rounders and Vettori and Swann as our pure spinners. It would be a very difficult line-up to score off indeed.