Showing posts with label Afridi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Afridi. Show all posts

Monday, 24 December 2012

Slow and steady?

There is a famous fable about a tortoise and a hare. They decide to have a race. The Hare runs off at great pace, gets close to the finish line and decides he is so far ahead he can afford to have a sleep. While he is sleeping, the tortoise catches up, over takes him, and finishes the race just as the hare is waking up. The moral of the story is supposed to be "slow and steady always wins the race."

Of course that moral is ridiculous. Slow and steady gets beaten by moderately fast and steady. Which in turn gets beaten by fast and steady. If slow and steady won the race I'd back myself to beat Ussain Bolt in the 100m. I reckon I can do it much slower than him.

However the true moral is that reliability is a very important virtue. And yet it is a very difficult one for us to take account of. There is inherently more interest in the unusual than the usual. Occasional exceptional performances are given more prominence in our memories than consistently good ones.

For example I can clearly remember Chris Pringle bowling a maiden in the last over of a match when Australia needed 2 runs to win. It was exceptional. Something that I'm never likely to see again. However I also watched a game where Gavin Larsen bowled 10 overs for 12 runs, including 5 maidens. I can't remember a single second of Larsen's performance. We tune out consistency, because it isn't memorable.

When asked who the best bowers in t20 cricket are, it is natural to tend towards the spectacular. We remember Mendis introducing the carrom ball and bamboozling everyone. We remember Malinga sending the stumps flying. We remember Narine, reviving the tradition of the West Indian mystery spinner like in the days of Sonny Ramadhin. We remember Warne saying how he was going to get McCullum out, and then doing it.

However we don't remember Samuel Badree, Daniel Vettori, Mohammed Hafeez, Nathan McCullum, Angelo Matthews or Darren Sammy. These names are ones that we remember, and can at times recall them doing something with the bat, or in the field, but their bowling tends to be unspectacular.

I was chatting with a top football coach recently, and he said to me "that Vettori chap, what he does must be harder than it looks." This guy has coached football at international level, and has been hugely successful at many different levels. His comment indicated the workings of a great sporting mind. He knows that often the things that look easy on a field take a lot more work than the things that look spectacular.

If we can't remember reliability, we need a metric to measure it. The standard cricket averages are not particularly helpful for this, as they can be skewed by occasional particularly good or particularly bad performances. Instead I decided to look at how often a bowler produces a good performance.

That in itself causes some problems. What is a good performance? In a t20 game, the aim of the bowlers is really to defend runs. Taking wickets is part of that, but often the real job is to not concede too may runs. So I'm going to define a good performance as being one where the bowler bowls at least 2 overs and conceded no more than a run a ball.

If every bowlers in the team did this, the maximium their opposition could score would be 120 plus any byes or leg byes. This is almost a guaranteed losing score, so there is some justification for defining 6 an over as a good target.

Here is a list of the number of good performances the top few bowlers have had. The innings column is innings where they have bowled at least 2 overs.

NameInningsInnings at 6rpo or less
Saeed Ajmal (Pak) 4728
Shahid Afridi (Pak) 5527
DL Vettori (NZ) 3324
NL McCullum (NZ) 3520
J Botha (SA) 3618
Umar Gul (Pak) 4918
BAW Mendis (SL) 2717
GP Swann (Eng) 3817
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak) 3116
DT Johnston (Ire) 2515
DW Steyn (SA) 2815
M Morkel (SA) 3013
DJG Sammy (WI) 3113
SCJ Broad (Eng) 4113
AD Mathews (SL) 2512
Harbhajan Singh (India) 2411
SL Malinga (SL) 3811

The two names at the top of the list have both bowled in a lot of matches, which is what we would expect. Matthew Hayden scored more centuries, fifties and overall more runs than Don Bradman, but it took him a lot more matches to do it. There won't be many people claiming that Hayden was better than Bradman. It's because the number of good performances themselves are not so important as how often you did them.

So I sorted the table by percentages. The numbers were quite interesting really:

NameInningsInnings at 6rpo or lessReliability
DL Vettori (NZ) 332472.73%
BAW Mendis (SL) 271762.96%
DT Johnston (Ire) 251560.00%
Saeed Ajmal (Pak) 472859.57%
NL McCullum (NZ) 352057.14%
GH Dockrell (Ire) 181055.56%
DW Steyn (SA) 281553.57%
DJ Hussey (Aus) 191052.63%
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak) 311651.61%
J Botha (SA) 361850.00%
Shahid Afridi (Pak) 552749.09%
AD Mathews (SL) 251248.00%
Harbhajan Singh (India) 241145.83%
GP Swann (Eng) 381744.74%
M Morkel (SA) 301343.33%
DJG Sammy (WI) 311341.94%
KMDN Kulasekara (SL) 241041.67%

Some of the names at the top of the list are spectacular players: Ajantha Mendis, Saeed Ajmal and Dale Steyn. But there are more of the other sort. Well ahead of the pack is Daniel Vettori, but also Trent Johnston, Nathan McCullum, George Dockrell, Dave Hussey and Mohammad Hafeez.

It's players in this second group that often get forgotten when great teams are picked. One of my favourite cricket analysts, Gary Naylor, wrote an interesting piece about greatness. His definition of greatness is one that relies on the aesthetics of the player. Gavin Larsen could never be a great under that criteria.

And yet perhaps better than being great is being consistently good. Glenn McGrath was consistently good. Shaun Pollock was consistently good. Whereas Brett Lee and Alan Donald were spectacular. We remember Donald, and forget Pollock, despite Pollock having had a much better record.

So I challenge you to look at a different type of greatness. The greatness of being consistently good. Next time you see Nathan McCullum or Mohammad Hafeez bowling, stop to admire how they manage to get fantastic results, without ever looking like fantastic bowlers. That is a form of greatness in itself.

Monday, 20 February 2012

Penny-pinching Misers

I've recently watched the movie Moneyball. The idea of a killer stat is interesting, and it is interesting if such a thing exists in cricket.

In baseball getting on base is the primary objective when batting. There are times that other things are ideal, but getting on base is always a good thing. Compare this with batting in limited overs cricket. If the team needs 8 of the last 2 balls, and you hit a single, you are making it extremely unlikely for your team to win the game. (Unless you have Andre Adams at the other end, and Graeme Aldridge is bowling). However if you need 2 runs off 7 balls, and Bruce Reid at the other end, a single is a great thing.

Likewise if you are chasing 324, scoring 110 off 155 deliveries is really making it difficult for your team to win. But scoring 101 off 143 when your team is chasing 197 on a tricky pitch is an outstanding effort.

However it is rarely true in recent times that a bowler can bowl 9 or more overs and concede less than 50 runs and it be a bad effort. If a bowler stops batsmen from scoring runs, they are doing their job. Over the past 5 years when teams restrict their opponents to 250 or less they win roughly 2/3 of the matches. To put that in perspective South Africa has the 2nd best winning record in that time, winning about 2/3 of their matches. To put it another way, If Bangladesh managed to keep their opponents to 250 or less every match they would be likely to have the best winning record in Asia.

As a result, bowlers who can regularly keep their runs conceded under 50 are very valuable for a team. Which leads to the question: who are the best at doing it?

PlayerBowled 9 or more oversConceded 50 or lessPercentage
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak) 242291.7%
GP Swann (Eng) 383386.8%
DL Vettori (NZ) 534584.9%
J Botha (Afr/SA) 413482.9%
RW Price (Zim) 544481.5%
Shakib Al Hasan (Ban) 685276.5%
KMDN Kulasekara (SL) 372875.7%
M Muralitharan (SL) 413175.6%
B Lee (Aus) 282175.0%
BAW Mendis (SL) 312374.2%
Saeed Ajmal (Pak) 372773.0%
NW Bracken (Aus) 332472.7%
P Utseya (Zim) 543972.2%
DJG Sammy (WI) 282071.4%
Shahid Afridi (Pak) 785469.2%


In that list of 14, there are 10 finger spinners. Some of them don't often bowl that many overs, and only get to bowl that many if things are going well for them, such as Mohammed Hafeez, Nuwan Kulasekera or Darren Sammy, however the other 9 finger spinners are in the 13 most likely bowlers to bowl 9 or more overs.

If we give in to conventional wisdom that we need pace bowlers in a team to give the bowling line up balance, we need to know who are the most reliable pace bowlers. Here are the equivalent numbers for the quick(er) bowlers.

PlayerBowled 9 or more oversConceded 50 or lessPercentage
KMDN Kulasekara (SL) 372875.7%
B Lee (Aus) 282175.0%
NW Bracken (Aus) 332472.7%
DJG Sammy (WI) 282071.4%
Z Khan (India) 523465.4%
MG Johnson (Aus) 543463.0%
Mashrafe Mortaza (Ban) 372362.2%
KD Mills (NZ) 352160.0%
SL Malinga (SL) 442454.5%
JM Anderson (Eng) 563053.6%
SCJ Broad (Eng) 532750.9%


An equivalent table for wrist-spin bowlers is rather redundant, as it would only contain Shahid Afridi, as the only wrist spinner to have 20 or more innings where he has bowled 9 or more and conceded 50 or less in the past 5 years.

Perhaps this would suggest that if we were going to pick a stats-based world team for an ODI, our bowlers might be best to have Kulasekara and Lee opening the bowling, Hafeez and Sammy as our all-rounders and Vettori and Swann as our pure spinners. It would be a very difficult line-up to score off indeed.

Friday, 23 December 2011

ODI team of the year

Well, it wouldn't be the end of the year, without people naming a team of the year.

Here is my attempt at ODI team of the year:

Method:
For batsmen I broke down the players into openers, top order and lower/middle order players.
I then looked at all batsmen's results batting in these positions throughout the year, giving a bonus for world cup matches and for games against harder opposition. I created a points system that took in account their runs scored, their wickets lost and their deliveries faced. The higher the score the better.

Openers:

Sehwag & Watson

NameMatchesRunsAverageStrike ratePoints
V Sehwag1264553.75122.58133.432
SR Watson22112459.1592.35108.154
SR Tendulkar1151346.6391.9899.282
HM Amla1563245.1487.6773.667
MJ Guptill1665054.1668.5873.338


Somewhat unsurprising, given that they have both dominated this year. Tendulkar was a close 3rd.

Top Order

de Villiers, Clark & Taylor

NameMatchesRunsAverageStrike ratePoints
AB de Villiers1046751.88108.28113.889
LRPL Taylor1756151.0087.0986.13
MJ Clarke2490056.2591.0181.247
Yuvraj Singh1138142.3389.7880.421
IJL Trott28124651.9180.8477.224
V Kohli31134949.9681.4976.953
KC Sangakkara26112751.2283.7875.762
G Gambhir1556240.1485.0974.575
JP Duminy1352347.5487.6170.696


This was a little more interesting. I was quite surprised bu Clarke's numbers, as I hadn't remembered him having such a good season. By the same token Kohli had an amazing season, but missed out.

Lower/Middle order

Dhoni & Duminy

NameMatchesRunsAverageStrike ratePoints
MS Dhoni2375963.2581.69100.227
JP Duminy1145150.11100.0079.152
KJ O'Brien1232429.45125.3177.566
Umar Akmal2878541.3186.9562.378
Misbah-ul-Haq2054545.4173.8061.635
DJ Hussey1634238.00152.9461.583
KA Pollard2052831.05151.2657.963
YK Pathan1227127.10121.1553.221
MEK Hussey1434738.5593.2451.55
EJG Morgan1538429.5385.7151.297
F du Plessis1328828.8084.1250.829


Initally I was going to have this and wicket-keeper as separate sections, but given that Dhoni came first as a batsman and there is not a lot of point in having two wicket keepers, it's better to take an extra batsman. JP Duminy just edges out Kevin O'Brien, but O'Brien is an obvious choice for 12th man, as he can contribute with the bat or the ball. And because I like his style of play.

Bowlers.

Quantifying the records for bowlers is not as easy as batsmen. I again created a measure that valued dot balls and wickets, and put a higher value on performances in the World Cup and in matches against good teams. The lower the points the better.

NameMatchesWicketsAverageEconomyPoints
DW Steyn142518.504.4119.78
RJ Peterson91821.154.7420.51
M Morkel142617.734.4121.26
Shahid Afridi274525.654.3521.76
Wahab Riaz132320.775.3222.51
TG Southee132522.855.0022.56
JDP Oram122323.884.7123.13
SL Malinga244823.134.8923.46
B Lee193323.034.6223.47
Z Khan143023.755.0823.64
M Muralitharan111722.354.2223.81
BAW Mendis141724.134.4625.15
HK Bennett101726.615.7326.09
Mohammad Hafeez323224.063.4326.64


There are a couple of interesting names here. Mohammad Hafeez misses out due to not taking many wickets in the World Cup. Perhaps this is a weakness in my system, as he was really one of the outstanding bowlers of the year. Peterson likewise only played 2 games outside the world cup, and went at about 6 an over in those matches. But he had a fantastic World Cup and it is fair that a player gets a bonus for performing at the highest stage.

The final team:

Sehwag
Watson
de Villiers
Taylor
Clarke
Duminy
Dhoni
Shahid Afridi
Peterson
Morkel
Steyn

12th man O'Brien

How does your team look?

Tuesday, 8 March 2011

Matching Mercury

The dictionary defines mercurial as: changeable; volatile; fickle; flighty; erratic.

While we are still 16 days away from Mercury being at its farthest point from the sun, we are seeing two of the most mercurial teams playing in Sri Lanka tonight. New Zealand and Pakistan are both teams that can look like a Rolls-Royce or a rubbish truck.

Between the two teams in the last 3 years they have been involved in 20 matches that have been either won or lost by 100 or more runs, and 13 that have been concluded with more than 15 overs remaining.

In the 10 most recent matches between the two teams, 2 have been close. New Zealand won by 7 runs at Abu Dhabi and lost by 2 wickets with 6 balls remaining at Napier. But 2 have been two of the most one sided matches in recent memory between test teams: NZ won by 9 wickets just after the first drinks break at Wellington, but lost another match at Abu Dhabi by 138 runs.

As a result it is almost impossible to say who will win this match. The 10 matches are 5-4 to NZ with one N/R (that Pakistan were looking quite good in). It is a strange situation where a match is too close to call, and yet will probably be very one-sided.

To add to the mystery the game is the first ever ODI at Pallekele. Looking through the previous games at lower levels, the one thing that seems constant is rain. Almost every match was decided by messers Duckworth and Lewis. However, even this can't be relied on, as the forecast is for a pleasant sunny day, with negligible wind.

One thing that has been common on this ground is lots of wickets and runs for quick bowlers, and not may wickets or runs for spinners. In one match a quick took 5/57 off 7, while a spinner got 0/17 off his 7 overs. This suggests that it is a pitch that gets good bounce.

Given all this here is my (somewhat hesitant) things to watch for:

1. Tim Southee. Southee has really shone under Allen Donald and John Wright, taking 14 wickets in 8 matches at 21.71. There have only been two bowlers to have taken more wickets in that time, both of them are also (likely to be) playing, Shahid Afridi and Hamish Bennett. The difference here is that those other two players have been as mercurial as their teams, taking 4 and 5 wicket bags, and then nothing, whereas Southee has been difficult for his opponents in all but one match (on the road at Napier). Southee loves a little bounce, and a little greenness. Look for a big performance from him, especially if New Zealand bowl first.

2. Brendan McCullum. John Wright has been trying to get McCullum to slow down a bit. McCullum has averaged near 60 recently in tests, and near 20 in ODI's. If he manages to score some more runs, even at a lower strike-rate he may become much more of an asset for New Zealand.

3. Misbah-ul-Haq. This year Misbah has scored 388 runs at 77.60. And he's scored a lot of those runs against New Zealand. If they are going to win this game, they will probably need to find a way to get past him.

4. James Franklin and Wahab Riaz. In the few games that we do have records of at Pallekele left arm fast medium bowlers have been the most effective. This could just be coincidence or it could be something about the make up of the pitch. This game may just tell us.

5. Shahid Afridi. He has taken lots of wickets so far in the tournament, but his average against New Zealand is a pedestrian 47.78, which is particularly odd given that he is a leg-spinner and generally New Zealand batsmen have struggled against leg-spin.

If I was going to be betting on this game (and I probably won't be, it's too hard to call) I would be looking at putting money on top innings run scorer. I'd look at someone who was good at playing pull, hook and cut shots, given that the pitch is likely to bounce a bit. Perhaps someone like Umar Akmal might be a good look.