Friday 9 December 2011

Preview - NZ Aus 2nd Test

Test two at Bellerive Oval, and things are difficult to predict.

The pitch in Hobart looks like it is going to be a minefield, but I think that the looks are going to be deceiving. They have used couch grass on the pitch, which sometimes looks very green, but actually doesn't bounce as much, and only gets sideways movement from short of a length (when a bowler bowls into a pitch not along it) and is not as dangerous when bowlers bowl full.

I'd expect Siddle to be more effective on this pitch than on the 'Gabba, as he bowled very well for little result, and his natural length will be better on this pitch.

The other thing to look for will be the swing. The ball traditionally swings when the tide is high at Hobart (similar to the coastal grounds in NZ). This should mean that there are a few wickets early on days 4 and 5. (High tide is 9:08 on Monday and 9:52 on Tuesday) The weather forecast is for bad weather this afternoon and tomorrow, but with the good light in Hobart the days are likely to be able to be extended on days 3, 4 & 5.

This means that it could be quite a stop-start day. This is not good for slow starters like Hughes and Williamson. It also might be a bad sign for Ponting, who has been brilliant at Bellerive traditionally, but who has also tended to struggle against inswing early in his innings.

Vettori is batting like a genius at the moment, and he is likely to get a lot of bowling as the pitch flattens out. Australia are likely to try and attack him more in this game, so he could be a good option for some wickets and runs.

Betting options:
First innings overs - This pitch is likely to flatten out very quickly, so once the toss happens and the odds are offered for the first innings total, go over.

Vettori player performance. 120 or over $1.87 - likely to take wickets and score runs.

New Zealand highest opening partnership $2.10 - Hughes is not very solid against Martin.

Taylor to score more the Khawaja $1.83 - I still don't rate Khawaja, and Taylor averages over 50 in the 2nd match of a series.

1 comment:

  1. Breaking news, Vettori out of the test due to injury - don't back him for performance!