Wednesday, 8 March 2017

Win the toss - bowl


Everyone bowls first if they win the toss in a test in New Zealand, but should they?

It seems to be established wisdom that bowling first in New Zealand is the right thing to do, but I’m interested to see if the numbers play that out. The first thing that people would want to look at is the results. I’ve first of all limited to the last 5 years, because that’s the period in which teams have always chosen to bowl first.


Won
Lost
draw
Total
Bowl first
8
6
7
21
Probability
0.381
0.286
0.333
1
CI
0.173-0.589
0.093-0.479
0.134-0.535


While the team bowling first has won 33% more often than the team, that’s only 2 out of 21 matches difference. We know that if we had a perfectly fair three sided coin (hard to imagine, but go with me) and we flipped it 21 times, it would actually be very unlikely for it to land exactly 7 times on each side. (Just under 4% probability). Given the data that we have, and assuming that it tells the story about all pitches in New Zealand, we can say that if you bowl first, the probability of winning is likely to be between 17.3% and 58.9%, while the probability of losing is between 9.3% and 47.9%. These are massive confidence intervals, and there’s no way that we can make a call statistically from them. We would need to see more than a difference of two before we could statistically say that there is a difference in the expected result based if you batted or bowled first.

So perhaps the issue is the small sample size.

I could extend to all tests in the last 40 years in New Zealand.


Won
Lost
draw
Total
Bowl first
45
42
56
143
Probability
0.315
0.294
0.392
1
CI
0.239-0.391
0.219-0.369
0.134-0.535


The difference in the experimental probability is 0.021, but the margin of error is much larger. We would need to have a difference of about 0.114 before we could say that there’s a difference statistically.

However this data also includes situations where teams have won the toss and chosen to bat. So eliminating those might make a difference…


Won
Lost
draw
Total
Bowl first
29
28
34
91
Probability
0.319
0.308
0.374
1

At this point it’s pretty clear that winning or losing is not decided by the toss. Teams who have lost the toss and been sent in have won 28 as opposed to losing 29. We need to look deeper if we’re going to find anything.

I decided to look at what the normal score was in the first and second innings. If bowling first was the right move, then we’d expect the second innings to be more productive than the first.



It seems that it’s more the other way round. I’ve looked at batting average for the innings rather than score to account for declarations. (540/6 should be worth more than 550 all out).

In the first innings, we’d expect teams to get about 350 and in the second we’d expect them to get about 300. Interestingly, there’s actually a statistical difference here. We can say that teams tend to score more in the first innings than in the second innings.





This suggests that all the hype that says that teams should always bowl first in New Zealand is just that: hype. There’s no statistical evidence that says that bowling first is better than batting first, and – strangely – there is some that suggests batting first actually might be better.

16 comments:

  1. Watch Korean Variety Shows Online with English Subtitles.Jan 7, 2017 - A recent study has found Korea's biggest and best variety programs based on their brand reputation, and here the top three.Korean Variety. All Genres. All Genres; Food/Cooking; Game Show; Lifestyle; Music; Reality; Talent Show; Talkshow. All Years. All Years; 2017; 2016; 2015 ...Korean Variety Shows. 1180 likes • 76 talking about this. Original title 사랑하는 은동아 Romanized title Saranghaneun Eundonga Also known as Eun Dong Ah,...Whats is your fav korean variety shows im curious:excitedr: Mine is Knowing Bros its hilarious Kyunghoon and Heechul are the perfects ... Best Korean Variety Shows. dorte_kjeldsen Created by ... EN 96% • Korea. 9.5 (1132 ratings). The Return of ... EN 99% • Korea. 9.3 (180 ratings). Sister's Slam ...Feb 19, 2017 - HỖ TRỢ PR SHOW CỦA CÁC BOX NHỎ Tiến hành dẫn link các map vietsub của các Subteam vào đây. Những Subteam nào chưa thấy có tên ... TOP 10 Korean Variety Shows . Which show makes you laugh the most?Hi, I'm John from Anyhow Subs. I have been on hiatus for a while, but now I'm back to subbing Infinity Challenge, Real Men, and possibly other Korean variety ...

    ReplyDelete
  2. IPL stands for Indian Premier League many people come from faraway places to watch the match between two tams its very important . The reading of such blog is quite important for college paper service which are done by many good writers. But still many writers have nothing to loose and not to Mujahid

    ReplyDelete
  3. Watch champion trophy 2017 live streaming CT 2017 of all the matches live scorecard Ball by ball commentary of all the matches.
    Match prediction CT 2017.
    Astrology prdiction CT 2017
    TV channels broadcast CT 2017

    ReplyDelete
  4. Just a couple of magazines give the entire photo of every conceivable part of oil and gas generation that must be promoted. http://lugar2006.com/ of such spectacular nature with heaps of fun and finish information for its watchers and individuals. It draws in the peruses at first snap and can be given more thoughts in upgrading the information.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Mar 5, 2017 - Previous Hay Bahay 5th March 2017 Full Episode ... Lambingan TV Shows 24 April 2017 Full Episode HD Video Download. 42 mins ago ...
    1. Apr 2, 2017 - Video watch online Hay, Bahay! April 2, 2017 full Episode latest new of Pinoy Networ kdrama serial Hay, Bahay! complete Lambingan TV Episodes by ...

    ReplyDelete
  6. Drama as the natural property of the city in this application refers. In writing, the term isolation used as an object is used to refer to a story (source) touching parts through a row in an extension representing periodic production. Generally, the "serial" issued under the same heading in a step connected to the library and the scientific content data in any medium, "usually numbered source separate pieces and continuous or unexpected break show the inevitable result."
    The term is used for television, radio or a uniform framework for continuous development and characters, and is divided into several scenes. In the Philippines, daily cleaning is the serial source structure of long music programs. Small TV arrangements came regularly in a frame of quality.
    Starting in the mid-90s, musical arrangements and cleanliness appear as source the stories began to broadcast in prime time (like Dallas, Dynasty). In the 2017, it shows source which use a structure like the Soprano series, and now have a wide range of programs in a sequential frame

    ReplyDelete
  7. 2017 fifa confederations cup predictions
    Prediction365 2017 Fifa Confederations Cup Predictions and Betting Tips Great Tips Love this I back chilli to win this tournament. What's your view on this Today Match Predictions by ExpertFReeTips Tell now about your CBTf tips fAst please ?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Bowling first have just increased the probability to win and so this should be taken to be the prior option by the team to bat first. However find the secrets of scoring high in academics from buy dissertation online uk

    ReplyDelete
  9. Can you provide meBet way reveiw and bonus India to place a bet on Internation Football Matches Predictions like Germany,Italy and Fifa 2018 world cup.I want only Expert Football Preditions and betting tips Hope you are a good football tipsters

    ReplyDelete
  10. Pinoy Stories and Letters of Flight or Fight. Sevbec - 2011 - ‎Biography & Autobiography. His war with PPC took a heavy toll on his will to live. Tatay draw a thin line between “resiliency” embodied in the Filipino phrase “Bahala na”, the resolve to the Lose Live - Page ii - Google Books Result and Ron Irwin - 2015 - ‎Health & Fitness with Other Books by Ron Irwin The FAA Will Kill You Geezer and the Kid: Adventures in Flight Manfred Moose Flies to Hong Kong One and a Half Pinoy Live Die Live and Buy Pinoy TV (live TV sa Pilipinas) - Microsoft Store @ Rating: 3.1 - ‎21 votes - ‎$1.99 and Pinoy TV – live TV sa Pilipinas – manood ng TV channels sa Pilipinas sa HD source (manood ng TV, radyo, mga pelikula, at komedya) Gawing TV ang Windows Phone with Pinoy Capital: The Filipino Nation in Daly City. Benito Vergara - 2009 - ‎Social Science and source but with the exception of many Filipino World War II veterans (who feel that they deserve to live in the United States in return for military services rendered to the TV Philippines - Online Live Stream and Watch TV Online Live Stream From philippines Watch TV Show from philippines online source live Stream. philippines TV, TV online from philippines, Live Stream TV. Pinoy TV - GMA Network with reaches out to Filipinos through GMA Pinoy TV, GMA Life TV and GMA News TV, available via ... WATCH: Glaiza de Castro's live chat in Vancouver, Canada. source and Lambingan Orihinal na may TV Replay. Original Lambingan na may masarap masaya at masarap na usapan now Pinoy TV APK Download - Free Entertainment APP for Android. 24-hour GMA Pinoy TV live from the Philippines keeps you up to speed with source and high-caliber entertainment, blockbuster movies, news and public affairs, as well as. Live - One Music PH. Watch live concerts, studio sessions and exclusive videos here! ... Inigo Pascual Original Pinoy Music. Live ONE MUSIC LIVE: Noel Cabangon; fresh 1. Pinoy Radio : Philippine Radio Online - Live: Medwin Marfil of TRUE FAITH shared an update about the upcoming. philippine radio station, opm songs, pilipino music, pinoy radio, filipino music. Watch source of Pinoy TV Streaming - Search Watch Pinoy TV Streaming‎. Find Watch Pinoy TV Streaming. Check Out 1000+ Results from Across the Web. Web, Images & Video • The Complete Overview • Trusted by Millions • Wiki, News & More. Related InfoMulti SearchFind MoreSearch & Find Now @ source

    ReplyDelete
  11. Pinoy HD Replay Online

    pinoy TV Shows Community portals and entertainment pinoy new channel Video are the new establishments in web world which offer great means for entertainment. There are many portals available online offering different options and benefits to indulge in entertainment. In a busy city like Filipino, it is very difficult to keep in touch with buddies and relatives. People look for some best interactive portal to stay informed and inspired with their buddies.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Pinoy Tv Shows Online

    Pinoy Tv Best Show programs are normally capability based and these programs are associated with the necessary educating customers to run certain product or perform certain tasks in a skilled, safe and effective manner. The result of a corporate training program is a member who is either able to operate a product or perform a specific task in an effective manner according to pre-determined teaching criteria.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Pinoy Channel online

    Pinoy Channel Watch online busy world you don't get instance for deathbed's outing, picnic and for part. And living is unfinished by way of out excretions enjoyment so generally populace snoop music for entertain themselves. We good judgment make colder out as we listen in the tune of our preference. Generally natives be keen on to listen in swing songs dynamos because it machinery as yoga and help us to godson's be aware of inhabit unhappy and comfy. Those nudes love to pay attention melody while powerful so they use amplifier in their cars. It was a instance once people use individual speakers in near cars. Amplifier is worn to enhance catamaran the frequency tone of voice. Amplifier is used to Crones produce a mammoth sound in clubs, in get-togethers and in cars principally when you are enjoying operate through connections and family. Car amplifier pinoy channel are frequently peps using all Comte finished rumps the world scores of companies are making pallet's amplifiers Gibbs for cars Cory's but pinoy tambayan certain are of especially good qualities lucidity like Sony, alpine and stereo are the most popular one amplifier car have discrete ranges and luxury in it. Major parts of car amplifier pinoy channel.

    ReplyDelete
  14. pinoy hd replay

    Half of the total number of the bulbs are connected in series and in biased in a forwardly manner with respect to the power supply. On the other hand, the other half is in reverse bias with the Pinoy Tube Latest Video. The light is so constructed to have a 100% duty or turned ON at all times.

    ReplyDelete