India's quick men in the IPL

One of the real bonuses for India with having the IPL is it provides an opportunity for their 2nd tier bowlers and batsmen to test their skills against the best in the world.

With a few notable exceptions, India have not had a reputation for producing quality fast bowling. In some ways the IPL is the perfect vehicle for this to change. With foreign coaches coming in, and high quality seamers in every team there is no excuse for Indian players to not develop their games.

So it's interesting to see who has taken advantage of this. Who is getting better, and who is stagnating? And which bowlers are consistently providing world class performances?

Firstly I looked at the Average and Economy Rate for the last 10 IPL matches for the 11 best performing Indian quick bowlers who had bowled in at least 4 matches this IPL. Here are the numbers:

Player	Average	E/r
M Patel	11.5	6.72
R Bhatia	20.25	6.19
A Dinda	19.38	7.64
Zaheer Khan	23.75	7.13
U Yadav	25.25	7.77
L Balaji	25.56	7.8
A Nehra	24.67	8.22
A Singh	26.25	8.55
S Trivedi	27.78	8.15
R Vinnay Kumar	34.67	8.67
P Kumar	85.33	6.92

There's a mixed bag there. Some (like Ashish Nehra and Ashok Dinda) have been good at taking wickets, but have gone for a lot of runs. Others (like Zaheer Khan and particularly Praveen Kumar) have been economical, but have not taken many wickets.

There can be arguments about which is the most important, but ideally a bowler will have a good economy rate and a good average. I feel that a quality player should average under 25 and have an economy rate of under 7.5.

The graph shows 3 players making the grade (Patel, Bhatia, Zaheer), and one just missing out (Dinda). One player actually doesn't even fit on the graph at all: Praveen Kumar. However, he is so far below the economy rate line that he is worth considering.

So once I had isolated the best performers of the Indian quick bowlers, the next question was to look at each of them in detail, to see if they had been making the most of the opportunities that had been afforded to them through the IPL.

Munaf Patel

Munaf Patel has really been the stand out of the Indian quick bowlers. He has taken wickets, but without conceding many runs. And the chart shows that his numbers are getting better and better. It's difficult to change a career economy rate in 4 overs, but almost every game the career rate is decreasing. The rate of improvement suggests that there is still more to come from him also.

Munaf Patel is shaping up as a bowler who could in the future genuinely look the likes of Malinga, Steyn and Broad in the eye. 10 wickets for 89 runs this IPL suggests that he possibly already can.


Zaheer Khan

Zaheer has been a steady performer for a while now. He's become very consistent, partially because batsmen know the danger they are in when he is bowling, and so take less risks. He still takes a wicket roughly every 3 overs.

He does not seem to have got much benefit from the IPL, but he was already a top bowler before the competition really got established.

Rajat Bhatia

This name was new to me. There have not been many KKR matches on at times that are friendly for someone in my time-zone to watch, and his results never really stood out on the score sheets.

We can see that his results (particularly his economy rate) have been steadily improving. Combine this with some useful lower-order hitting in some non-IPL t20 matches (including 107* off 60 for Delhi against Railways), Bhatia looks like a very useful performer.

Unfortunately he's 32, and the Indian selectors are much more likely to look at youth, than try out a player who only offers a few years service. This is a pity, as his numbers are very impressive (if you were to take his figures and Zaheer Khan's figures and compare them, on all but 19 of the 177 days that they have been in season Bhatia has had a better average, and in all but 21 he's had a better economy rate)

Ashok Dinda

Ashok Dinda has done very well this season. He's taken his career average down from the mid 30's to the mid 20's and maintained an economy rate around 7 runs per over.

He's managed to upstage his more illustrious colleagues Ashish Nehra, Angelo Mathews and Wayne Parnell, and in the process really establish himself as a very reliable contributor. He's gone at less than 6 an over so far this season, and if he keeps that up, an international recall may be on the cards.

The graph clearly shows what is sometimes called 2nd year syndrome. A player has a good start, so everyone tries to figure out how to play them. The test of a great player is if they can come back from this and have a great third year. It seems to have taken a little longer than that for Dinda, but this year (his 5th in the IPL) is shaping up to be his best yet.

Praveen Kumar

Despite Praveen Kumar's average skyrocketing during the last 10 or so matches, he has continued to make it difficult for the batsmen to score.

This whole article stemmed out of me researching to decide who to pick in my fantasy team, and despite what the numbers suggest, I actually went for Praveen Kumar. The reason is that it seems unlikely to me that a bowler can keep putting batsmen under pressure, and for that to continue to not result in wickets. Eventually someone is going to target him, and he'll either go for a lot of runs, or pick up their wicket. The interesting thing in this graph is the demonstration of how his game has changed. From a bowler who in one 10 match period averaged 20's but went for close to 8 an over, to a player who now averages a lot higher, but goes for less runs per over.

Sometimes a bowler like that causes so much pressure that a wicket falls at the other end. Peter Siddle is a good example of a bowler who also does that. The bowler at the other end bowls a bad ball and it gets hit down a fielders throat.

If I were an Indian selector, I would certainly take heart from the start of the IPL. Bhatia has to be coming into reckoning, as does Dinda, and once Varun Arron and RP Singh are back from injury, there could be a real surplus of talented quick bowlers for them to chose from. This is not a position that India has historically enjoyed very often.

*all statistics are accurate before the start of play on 21/4/2012

Preview - Aus Ind 3rd Test Perth 11/12

The WACA.

Possibly the ground with the most intense legend surrounding it.

The bouncy track. The ball whistling past the batsman's ears. The Fremantle Doctor.

One part fact, one part fiction.

There was a time where the WACA was the fastest, bounciest and scariest pitch in the world. That title is long gone. The WACA is now a great place to be a batsman. Even the 10th wicket has an average partnership of 16 in the last 5 years. And yet every match in the last 5 years has provided a result. The runs come quickly, but so do the wickets.

There are a couple of things I am looking for in this match.

1. The team that bats first normally wins. There is a small sample size, but teams are advised to bat first. This has been a good ground for openers, and if they can survive the opening hour or so they can really pile on the runs.

2. How will Michael Clarke go? I took a sample of 300's (I didn't have time to look at them all) and looked at the next innings for each batsman. The median score was 31. Will Clarke fall below this, or will he back up with another big score. Hes scored 251 in his last 4 matches at this ground, which is not bad, but also not setting the world on fire.

3. Zaheer Khan. The most effective bowlers at the WACA recently have been left arm swing bowlers. India have an outstanding exponent of this art. He will need support, but he could be very dangerous, particularly in the second innings.

4. How will the spinners go? This ground has not been friendly for spinners, and it will be interesting to see how Lyon and Ashwin go. Both players are in doubt for the match, and it will be interesting to see if they make the line-ups and if so, how they will go.

Betting tips.

1. Player Performance Michael Clarke under 100 $1.83. I would expect the probability of him getting under 100 to be about 0.7

2. Player Performance Sachin Tendulkar 85 & over $1.83. He is hardly ever scoring under 40 at the moment. His attacking style is suited to this ground.

3. Top India bowler Zaheer Khan $3. This seems too good to be true. I was expecting Khan to be at about $2.20

4. India to win (draw no bet) $2.75. This game may end up a draw, but if not, this could be India's chance to strike back.

Preview - Aus Ind 2nd Test Sydney 11/12

After the fairly comprehensive ending to the first test it is easy to forget that the game was neck and neck at the start of what turned out to be the final day.

Australia will go into this test as favourites again, but looking at the weather forecast I think that this could be a damp squib instead. With rain forecast for each of the last 3 days, $3.75 on a draw looks like very good odds.

If there is play it is likely to be interrupted play, which plays into the hands of swing bowlers. I like the look of Ben Hilfenhaus at $3.50 to be Australia's top bowler.

The curator has said that he feels this pitch is like the '50s and '60s pitches, where bowlers like Joe Partridge and Alan Davidson took truckloads of wickets by bowling full and allowing the ball to swing. Often they were backed up by a fast bowler at the other end, keeping the batsmen on the back foot. As a result the Yadav-Khan partnership could be worth watching. In some ways It could be a case of the better Yadav bowls in this test, the more wickets will fall at the other end.

Dravid is possibly going to be the key for India. On tricky pitches he has been outstanding, scoring 50 or more in 6 of the last 14 times that India have been bowled out for 300 or less. He goes well when India's backs are against the wall. (forgive the pun).

However the SCG has traditionally favoured batsmen who go for their shots. Keith Miller averaged in the 60's there, and Doug Walters, averaged over 100 at the start of his career when he was still playing shots willy-nilly. Sobers also loved the ground. Given that record it will be interesting to see how Warner and Sehwag fare here. Their attacking instincts may hold them in good stead.

No statistical analysis of this game could be complete without mentioning one important number. 221.33. Sachin Tendalkur's average at the SCG. It is the second highest average by one player at one ground Falling between Miandad's 330.5 at Niaz Stadium in Hyderabad and the Don's 192.6 at Heddingly in Leeds. (min. 4 matches played). However those runs were scored on the lower, dryer, spinnier SCG of the last 20 years, rather than the traditional green, bouncy one.

Another thing to look for is Ashwin in the first innings. He looks to me like he could become a great first innings spinner, ala Daniel Vettori. He manages to get under the bat, and bowls fuller than most spin bowlers in the longer form.

Key bets

1. Draw, $3.75 - possibly only going to be a 3 day test
2. Dravid to run scorer for India, $5 - likely to be tricky conditions, his specialty.
3. Zaheer Khan top Indian bowler, $3.25 - swing is his friend.
4. Hilfenhaus top Australian bowler, $3.50 - swing + interruptions.
5. Ponting to score more than Clarke, $1.80 - Ponting averages 64 in Sydney, while Clarke averages 28.

Preview - Aus Ind 1st Test Melbourne

Well, it's almost here, Day 1 of the first test of the Border-Gavaskar trophy. The Boxing Day test.

A cool overcast day in Melbourne should provide good conditions for the bowlers. A reasonably fresh pitch should make the first session exciting. Australia's attacking batsmen (particularly Warner and Marsh) coming against Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma.

Sharma is the key for me. We know that Zaheer Khan is an outstanding bowler, but Sharma has been in patchy form recently, averaging 61.06 in his last 7 test matches with an appalling strike rate of 105.9. However Sharma has shown that he might be on the way back taking 22 wickets in the 3 matches against the West Indians at 26.22.

Cowan looks like the goods, and it will be interesting to see if he can replicate his recent form (hundreds in his last 3 first class matches) on his test debut.

The other big question for me will be how Ashwin will go later in the day. In his previous matches against Australia he has dismissed both Ponting and Hussey.

Some good bets:
David Warner 1st wicket $1.90
Australia to win $2.00 - India often start a series slowly - have a very bad record on green pitches
Top opening partnership India - $2.05 - much better conditions for them, combined with a more experienced lineup.
Ponting -60.6 $2.90 He's been in much better form than people think.