Match 2, NZ vs South Africa preview

Trent Boult may be a key player in match 2

We now have a little more information about Bay Oval, and what it's all about.  We also have seen both teams play.  And really, we don't actually know much more.

Here are some things that I noticed, and some battles to look forward to.

1. Trent Boult vs Quentin de Kock.  de Kock is a good batsman, in good form, but he looked somewhat clueless against Boult, and it looks like he will need to develop a better plan as to how to bat against him.

2. Vernon Philander vs Martin Guptill. Guptill looked completely out of form in the first game, but that's at odds with how well he played in the CPL just recently. Often a batsman looks out of form when a bowler is bowling in places that makes it difficult for him to score.  I think that is what actually happened in the first match. It will be interesting to see if Guptill has managed to figure out how to get some runs off Philander's bowling.

3. Kyle Mills vs Hashim Amla. If Mills plays in this match, it will be interesting to see if he can repeat the dose against Amla. Mills bowled 21 deliveries to Amla, and he managed to only score 12 before getting out. And those 12 mostly came from streaky, un-Amla like shots. Conventional wisdom would say that Amla's too good to repeat that performance, but Mills is a very crafty bowler, and his successes against Chris Gayle say that he is capable of targeting a player and really getting on top of them.

4. Brendon McCullum vs Morne Morkel.  McCullum backs himself to dominate anyone, but he has always found Morkel a difficult bowler to face. Morkel got him in the first match, and McCullum will not want a repeat in the second.

5. Jimmy Neesham vs Dale Steyn. Steyn will be particularly grumpy with the way that Neesham approached their confrontation in the first match. Neesham didn't look phased by the great bowler at all. It will be interesting to see what lengths Steyn bowls to him today.

Betting tips.

If I was betting $50 on this match, here's where it would go:

1. Total match run outs $10 on over 1.5 at $2.80
There were non in the first match, but there were 3 close calls, and that was without the sort of scoreboard pressure that normally brings about run outs. McCullum sets fields trying to get run outs, and ABdV has been working hard on getting the South African fielding back to where they were in years gone by.

2. South Africa top run scorer $10 on AB de Villiers at $5.00
de Villiers has a phenomenal record in the second match of a series. Over the past 3 years he's only had 2 times that I could see that he's hit less than 50 in the second match in a series. He's hit 3 centuries and 2 not out fifties.  He's also got the wood on most of the New Zealand bowlers.

3. New Zealand top run scorer $10 on Tom Latham at $7.50
Latham looked fantastic, and would have been likely to got a big score other than a piece of bad luck against Duminy.

4. Hashim Amla runs $10 on 0-20 at $2.55
I think opening against a line up featuring (at least 2 of) Mills, Southee and Boult is a very difficult prospect.

5. Head to Head $10 on New Zealand at $2.60
New Zealand are a better team than they showed in the last game.  Look for a big step up.

All odds are from NZ TAB and are accurate at time of writing.

When not going for the victory is an act of courage

South Africa chose to defend the last 4 overs, rather than try and score 16 runs for victory. At first glance this seems like an act of either stupidity or cowardice, but I think it was neither.

They missed out on a chance to make history, by becoming the only team to have successfully chased over 450. But they also missed out on losing a match that would have meant that the series was unwinnable.

Instead Steyn and Philander looked at the options and decided that they were a better team than India, and backed themselves to win the next test. If they went 1-0 down in the series, the best possible outcome was a drawn series, but if the match was a draw, then it was still possible to win the series.

Imran Tahir was probably the next man in. In roughly 2/3 of his innings he has lasted less than 10 balls. That is not the player you want to have saving a test. Morne Morkel is more competent, but it's difficult to bat with only one leg working. It was entirely likely that those two could have been dismissed in the space of an over.

Given that restriction, it made sense that the South Africans decided to be positive with regards to the series, and back themselves to win the second match. It certainly would have been frustrating for them and for any South African fans, but it was probably the correct call.

It appeared to be an act of cowardice, but really it was an act borne of a confidence in their ability to win the second test.

A look at the St George's Park match

The second match between New Zealand and South Africa is at St George's Park in Port Elizabeth. I thought it would be interesting to have a look at some of the statistics at this ground, and see if we can use it to make some predictions about the up-coming match.

The first thing I looked at was the players who had succeeded at this ground recently. No test cricket has been played here in the past 5 years, so I had to look back a bit further. I found the top 15 run scorers at the ground, and then looked at the ground-by-ground averages of those players, to see which grounds they scored similarly well at. The grounds that came out the same were: Bangabandhu National Stadium, Dhaka; Eden Gardens, Kolkata; Chepauk, Chennai; Basin Reserve, Wellington; McLean Park, Napier; Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore; Antigua Recreation Ground, St John's, Antigua; Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, Antigua.

Interestingly there were two grounds in New Zealand but none in South Africa

So I then looked at the averages of the New Zealand and South African batsmen at those grounds.

Name	Matches	Runs	Average
AN Petersen (SA)	2	316	79
HM Amla (SA)	5	593	74.12
BJ Watling (NZ)	3	213	71
RJ Peterson (SA)	1	61	61
GC Smith (SA)	9	836	55.73
JH Kallis (SA)	9	655	43.66
BB McCullum (NZ)	21	1319	41.21

This ground may well be more to New Zealand's liking than Newlands (just as Hobart and P.Sara were in the last 14 months)

Adding to this is that it is a coastal ground, and the match is being played near a new moon, so there may be extra assistance for the swing bowlers in the afternoon (high tide is about 4pm, and is a particularly high tide. (I am aware that some people think that the tidal flow affecting swing bowling is an old wives tale, but my experience is that the ball does swing more at high tide, if there is a significant tidal flow - PE has a similar tidal flow to Hobart, so it is likely to have a similar effect)

Another big factor will be the lack of Philander. While they only played two matches without him in the last two years, his absence was keenly felt, and South Africa lost one match (against Sri Lanka) and should have lost the other (against Australia at Adelaide). He provides such balance to the bowling attack that he will be sorely missed.

Applying the same method to the bowlers as the batsmen gets this table:

Name	Matches	Wickets	Average
RJ Peterson (SA)	1	5	13.6
VD Philander (SA)	1	6	18.33
TA Boult (NZ)	1	2	19.5
MJ Guptill (NZ)	9	3	25
CS Martin (NZ)	22	86	31.13
DAJ Bracewell (NZ)	3	10	31.2
M Morkel (SA)	3	8	33.5
KS Williamson (NZ)	4	3	41.33
DW Steyn (SA)	4	9	43.22

The stand out there is Chris Martin. While he's unlikely to play in this match, his experience on this sort of slow wicket may prove to be vital.

Mini-session Analysis 1st Test, South Africa vs New Zealand, Capetown 2012/13

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the first test between South Africa and New Zealand at Newlands, Cape Town, South Africa

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	New Zealand 28/6 off 10.5	South Africa
1-1b	New Zealand 17/4 off 8.3	South Africa
	South Africa 3/1 off 2
1-2a	South Africa 74/0 off 14	South Africa
1-2b	South Africa 42/1 off 13	draw
1-3a	South Africa 79/0 off 18	South Africa
1-3b	South Africa 54/1 off 17	draw
2-1a	South Africa 44/2 off 14	New Zealand
2-1b	South Africa 39/1 off 13	draw
2-2a	South Africa 12/2 off 4.5	South Africa
	New Zealand 17/1 off 9.3
2-2b	New Zealand 16/1 off 9.3	South Africa
2-3a	New Zealand 96/1 off 16	New Zealand
2-3b	New Zealand 40/1 off 17	draw
3-1a	New Zealand 32/0 off 15	New Zealand
3-1b	New Zealand 31/1 off 15	South Africa
3-2a	New Zealand 20/2 off 13	South Africa
3-2b	New Zealand 22/3 off 7.1	South Africa

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South Africa win the match by an innings and 27 and the mini-session count 9 - 3

First drinks, Day 1: South Africa lead the mini-session count 1-0

Vernon Philander is a one man wrecking machine on a pitch like this. Some of those deliveries moved so sharply that the batsman had no chance, but others moved just enough that the batsman didn't play and miss. New Zealand will be pleased that they have made it past 26.

Lunch, Day 1: South Africa lead the mini-session count 2-0

This time it was Dale Steyn's turn. The ball he got Bracewell with really deserved the wicket of a better batsman. There has been some bad shots, but mostly some very good bowling.

Middle drinks, Day 1: South Africa lead the mini-session count 3-0

One of the problems with inswing bowlers is that they can be expensive if they stray in their line. New Zealand have shown that quite clearly. They were always going to miss Tim Southee, but this should have been a good pitch for Bracewell. Instead South Africa have totally dominated this mini-session, just like the other two.

Tea, Day 1: South Africa lead the mini-session count 3-0

Finally New Zealand managed to hold their own in an hour. James Franklin is coming off a longer run up, and is looking almost like the bowler he was when he first broke into international cricket. Amla played a peach of an innings. Sometimes a player looks like he is batting on a different pitch to everyone else. That was Sangakkara in the Boxing Day test and it was Hashim Amla today. He really is a phenomenal player.

Final drinks, Day 1: South Africa lead the mini-session count 4-0

Another dominant hour by South Africa. It is hard to remember any day in a test match that has been as one sided as this. Perhaps the third day of the New Zealand-Zimbabwe match in Napier last year. Either way there is a big difference between the two teams on today's evidence. The only bright spot for New Zealand has been the bowling of James Franklin. While Franklin is not looking like a world beater, he is bowling much better than he has in a test for a long time.

Stumps, Day 1: South Africa lead the mini-session count 4-0

Alviro Petersen brought up a well deserved hundred. A fine knock on a difficult pitch. This should go down as one of his best ones in his career. That was probably the best hour of cricket of the test. Good bowling, batting and fielding, finally. For the majority of the rest of the day there was only one side playing good cricket.

First drinks, Day 2: South Africa lead the mini-session count 4-1

New Zealand finally won an hour. They probably need to win about 5 more in a row to get even close to being level. How South Africa handle the new ball will be the point of interest in the next hour. If Boult can find some swing with the dispersing cloud cover then New Zealand could wrap up the tail quite quickly.

Lunch, Day 2: South Africa lead the mini-session count 4-1

An even hour, but it could have been New Zealand's. They decided to not refer a lbw decision, which turned out to be plumb. AB de Villiers has looked fantastic with the bat, and Trent Boult has started to find some movement. An interesting decision from McCullum was to bring on Jeetan Patel with a fairly new ball. He managed to create some pressure, almost picking up a wicket in his first over. It may have just been a pre-break change to try and disrupt the batsmen's concentration, so it will be interesting to see if McCullum persists with it.

Middle drinks, Day 2: South Africa lead the mini-session count 5-1

It seems like a very good declaration from Smith. There is still some life in the pitch, and clouds overhead. Some of the balls are really doing crazy things, particularly when Philander is bowling. I actually think Kallis is going to be the most dangerous bowler today, if he gets the ball.

Tea, Day 2: South Africa lead the mini-session count 6-1

This was an absorbing hour of play. Test match cricket at it's best for the purists. It was a battle of wills and wits. The South African bowlers were bowling in good areas, and the New Zealand batsmen were making an effort to not play anything they didn't need to.

The decisive moment of the hour was Kallis getting Williamson to play away from his body with some clever bowling. He first bowled a ball to encourage Williamson into playing a shot. A short ball just outside off stump. Williamson played it through the covers for 2. Next ball Kallis bowled one a little wider and a little quicker, and Williamson fell for the trap. He's a good young player, and he learns well, but he was out-foxed by the veteran there.

New Zealand are putting up a good fight, but South Africa are marching assuredly towards victory.

Final drinks, Day 2: South Africa lead the mini-session count 6-2

A fantastic partnership between McCullum and Brownlie well and truly gave this hour to New Zealand. They put on 89 off 81 balls in a fantastic counter-attack. Brownlie's innings is reminiscent of the way he played in Brisbane a year ago. He probably doesn't really want to get a reputation as being good when the team is getting thrashed.

Stumps, Day 2: South Africa lead the mini-session count 6-2

What a great day of cricket. Unfortunately it was totally ruined by yesterday's mismatch. New Zealand will be hoping to wake up to clear skies tomorrow. The game is really just about how South Africa win it, and how well the New Zealanders recover. At the moment they are sending a signal that the next test is going to be worth watching.

First drinks, Day 3: South Africa lead the mini-session count 6-3

New Zealand made it through an hour without losing a wicket. However there is a point where game is really just going through the motions until the new ball arrives. Kallis might still be a handful in this last hour if they give him the ball.

Lunch, Day 3: South Africa lead the mini-session count 7-3

That would have been New Zealand's hour, until Brownlie hit the new ball down Robin Peterson's throat. It was a terrific innings from Brownlie, who came out and really counter attacked yesterday afternoon, before consolidating in the evening. He brought up his maiden ton with a 6, and actually went from 92 to 104 with 2 sixes in 5 balls. This match is still South Africa's (it would require something incredible for there to be any result other than a South African win) but New Zealand have competed well in days 2 and 3.

Middle drinks, Day 3: South Africa lead the mini-session count 8-3

South Africa are starting to turn the screws. Philander has found the seam of the ball, and is starting to nip it around. It sounds very simple, bowl the ball at a reasonable pace, put it in the right area on the pitch and hit the seam, but nobody other than Philander does it so consistently.

End of match, Day 3: South Africa take the mini-session count 9-3

A brave effort from New Zealand, but they were never going to be able to make up for the first day. The final act of the match probably summed up New Zealand's test, with Chris Martin being run out needlessly. It appears that he can't even bat from the non-strikers end.

There are some positives to take from the match for New Zealand, but not many. Brownlie, McCullum and Watling were the stand out players with the bat, and Boult and Martin with the ball.

The man of the match was Vernon Philander, and he really sewed it up in the first hour. He could have gone to sleep under the stands for the rest of the match, and he probably would have still deserved it. Steyn continued his love of playing against New Zealand, picking up his 50th wicket against the one opponent.

New Zealand are normally better in the second match of a series. They will need to be a lot better in Port Elizabeth to avoid humiliation again.

Test team of the year 2012

For the test team of the year, I’ve given extra weight to performances away from home. Often the mark of great players is that they can master foreign conditions. For each player I’ve generated a weighted average, and I’ve used that to pick the team.

I’ve also looked at openers as a separate skill to batting in numbers 3-5. I also feel that numbers 6 and 7 need to be multi-skilled players: who can contribute with the bat and either the ball or the gloves. As a result I’ve picked the best batsman among the keepers. It is very difficult to quantify the ability of keepers, and while I feel that Prasanna Jayawardene is currently without peer as a keeper, his batting (while improving) is significantly weaker than some of the other keepers.

With the bowlers I decided on at least 2 quick bowlers and at least one spinner. After that I picked the next best bowler. There were a few times that a team went in with either 3 spinners or 4 pace bowlers, but every time the results were not good enough to demand it being replicated in this team.

There were a couple of bowlers who had a good year without playing any away matches. For these players I looked at the average difference between home matches and away matches, and adjusted their weighted averages accordingly.

Openers: Alastair Cook and Graeme Smith.

While these two may not have the crowd in raptures with scintillating stroke-play, they have scored a lot of runs this year, both home and away.

Name	Overall Average	Away Average	Weighted average
AN Cook (Eng)	48.03	71.9	54.67
GC Smith (SA)	48.52	50.56	49.52
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak)	45.9	52.5	48.24
AN Petersen (SA)	47	43.06	45.09
TM Dilshan (SL)	40.13	42	40.67
DA Warner (Aus)	43.77	28.5	39.96

Numbers 3-5: Marlon Samuels, Michael Clarke and Shivnarine Chanderpaul

Michael Clarke has been amazing in Australia, but his away form was so poor that he was almost pipped for the spot by Amla.

Name	Overall Average	Away Average	Weighted average
S Chanderpaul (WI)	109.55	196	131.17
MN Samuels (WI)	86.6	94.71	89.94
MJ Clarke (Aus)	106.33	31.33	84.9
HM Amla (SA)	70.93	74.85	72.83
JH Kallis (SA)	70	56	63.3
Azhar Ali (Pak)	55.1	60	56.73
MEK Hussey (Aus)	61.61	36.5	53.68
AB de Villiers (SA)	58.21	46.78	52.5
Asad Shafiq (Pak)	47.11	64.25	52.38

All Rounder: Jacques Kallis.

While Samuels came out as the best all-rounder for the year, he is already in the team for his batting (and there’s also a chance he won’t be allowed to bowl). Kallis has had a much improved year with the ball, his averages were similar to Dale Steyn for the year.

Name	Batting	Bowling	Difference
MN Samuels (WI)	89.94	42.8	47.14
JH Kallis (SA)	63.3	30.89	32.41
Mohammad Hafeez (Pak)	48.24	28.36	19.88
KS Williamson (NZ)	30.52	41.67	-11.15
MEK Hussey (Aus)	56.73	73	-16.27
SR Watson (Aus)	31.7	48	-16.3

Keeper: AB de Villiers

De Villiers almost made the team as a batsman alone. Ramdin recovered well from having calls for his head at the start of the year.

Name	Overall Average	Away Average	Weighted average
AB de Villiers (SA)	48.55	48.55	48.56
D Ramdin (WI)	42.87	54.16	47.71
MJ Prior (Eng)	38.85	39.62	39.07
MS Wade (Aus)	36.27	39.6	37.31
MS Dhoni (India)	40.63	24.33	37.14
Adnan Akmal (Pak)	25.25	37.66	28.64

Bowlers: Tino Best, Tim Southee, Narsingh Deonarine and Vernon Philander

This was the big surprise for me. Where is Dale Steyn? Where is James Anderson? Probably the best two bowlers in the world and they don’t even feature. Likewise Saeed Ajmal just gets pipped. These are not the bowlers that I would pick if I were selecting a team other than on stats.

bowler	overall average	away average	weighted average
TL Best (WI)	16.27	14.92	15.69
TG Southee (NZ)	22.64	17.3	20.08
N Deonarine (WI)	19	-	20.27
VD Philander (SA)	21.11	21.83	21.45
BW Hilfenhaus (Aus)	21.67	20.8	21.49
Junaid Khan (Pak)	24.14	21.78	22.96
Saeed Ajmal (Pak)	20.56	29.93	23.17
PM Siddle (Aus)	23.09	38.33	24.14
KAJ Roach (WI)	22.25	34.25	24.3
MA Starc (Aus)	25.05	27.5	25.27
Abdur Rehman (Pak)	22.64	41.33	26.26
HMRKB Herath (SL)	23.61	62.16	27.12
MS Panesar (Eng)	26.03	29.31	27.23
GP Swann (Eng)	29.93	23.61	27.54
PP Ojha (India)	25.96	-	27.7
JM Anderson (Eng)	29.5	26.61	28.62
TA Boult (NZ)	30.77	27.05	29.1
DW Steyn (SA)	29.71	29.08	29.41

Preview - SA SL 3rd Test Cape Town

Only South Africa would drop a bowler after he took a 7 wicket bag on debut. And not get criticized for it. South Africa have dropped de Lange for a fit-again Philander. And who wouldn't.

The combination of the aggressive Morkel, the relentless Steyn and the slipery Philander looks like their best one, and, (potentially) the best in world cricket.

Sri Lanka are a team that are very hard to pin down. They looked like world-beaters, then went on and lost a number of tests, and looked like the Ellerslie 2nd XI would give them a good run for their money. Then they came back and beat South Africa.

However they really won the game in one hour of brilliance from Welegedara and Herath. The rest of the game was really quite even.

Reasons Sri Lanka might be confident:

Sangakkara has found some form. - I believe Sangakkara has been the best batsman in the world over the past 2 or 3 years, but he had had a run of outs that even Chris Martin would be disappointed in. That was until his outstanding 108 in the second innings at Kingsmead. If he starts scoring well - then Sri Lanka are a different team. In the matches where he hits a 50 Sri Lanka win 2.33 times more than they lose. In the matches where he doesn't they lose more than they win, with a w/l ratio of 0.75

Newlands offers something for the spinners. - With Herath in good form, being at Newlands could be the best thing for Sri Lanka. At Newlands roughly 7 wickets per match fall to spin, as opposed to about 5 per match in the rest of South Africa. This will get Herath smiling.

Reasons South Africa might be confident

The game is at Newlands. - Only Australia has beaten South Africa at Newlands since the reintroduction. It has been a fortress for them. There are only 5 grounds in the world where the home team has a better record in the last 20 years than South Africa do at Newlands.

Philander is back. - In test cricket so far he's bowled about 85 overs and taken 24 wickets. That's one every 3 and a bit overs. To put that in context it's more than twice as frequent as Waqar Younis. It's even ahead of George Lohmann.

Kallis is due. He has had a poor season both with the bat and the ball, averaging 14 with the bat and 232 with the ball. It is his worst ever season with the ball and 2nd worst with the bat. But he is such a classy player that this can not continue. He must find some runs soon, and perhaps this is the time.

Betting tips

1. South Africa to win. - $1.44 seems easy money.
2. Samaraweera to top score in 1st innings. - $5.50 He's likely to do it about 1 in 4 at the moment, so $5.50 is good money.


(Picture courtesy Vaughan Leiberum)