Showing posts with label Lords. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lords. Show all posts

Sunday, 14 July 2019

Statistical preview, World Cup final, New Zealand vs England

Here is a brief statistical preview.

Recent head to head:

In the past 5 years England lead 8-5.
In the past 2 years England lead 6-3.

At Lord's the ball tends to bounce a bit more. As a result it tends to not suit England as much as their other home grounds. It is the only ground that England have a losing record at over the past few years, with 3 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 years.

It is also a ground where scores have been defended quite regularly.




The slope, large straight boundaries and the bounce combine to make a more bowler friendly ground than most in England, but grounds in this world cup have not exactly gone to type.

Adding in times where New Zealand bat first, and where England bowl first, gives the following result:

New Zealand had a clear plan to use the pressure of the situation as a weapon to help them defeat India, and the pressure from playing at home may do the same against England.

The model that I used to build my simulation has England at 69.8%, while New Zealand are at 30.2%. That feels about right too, New Zealand have a realistic chance, but England are certainly favorites.

The bookies have England at 73%, CricViz have England at 68%, New Zealand at 30% and a tie at a fairly high 2%.

The two teams are close enough that nobody can say exactly who will win, but it is a World Cup final - that's exactly how it should be.

Thursday, 18 July 2013

Mini-session Analysis, 2nd Ashes test, Lord's, 2013

Here is the mini-session analysis for the second test between England and Australia at Lord's, London, England

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Friday, 17 May 2013

Mini-session Analysis, 1st Test, England vs New Zealand, Lords, 2013

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the first test between England and New Zealand at Lord's, London, England

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-SessionScoreWinner
1-1aEngland 37/0 off 15England
1-1bEngland 19/1 off 14New Zealand
1-2aEngland 28/1 off 13New Zealand
1-2bEngland 29/1 off 14New Zealand
1-3aEngland 31/0 off 17draw
1-3bEngland 16/1 off 7New Zealand
2-1aEngland 26/0 off 14draw
2-1bEngland 23/4 off 10New Zealand
2-2aEngland 23/2 off 8.2New Zealand
2-2bNew Zealand 54/2 off 19England
2-3aNew Zealand 65/1 off 18New Zealand
2-3bNew Zealand 34/1 off 12.4England
3-1aNew Zealand 29/2 off 12.2England
3-1bNew Zealand 25/4 off 7England
England 12/0 off 2
3-2aEngland 46/2 off 13New Zealand
3-2bEngland 33/0 off 11England
3-3aEngland 65/0 off 22England
3-3bEngland 24/4 off 11New Zealand
4-1aEngland 33/4 off 9.3New Zealand
4-1bNew Zealand 29/6 off 11.4England
4-2aNew Zealand 39/4 off 10.5England

Final update, click here

New Zealand won the mini-session count 10 - 9, but England won the match.

First drinks, Day 1: England lead the mini-session count 1-0

A slow but safe start from England. Boult and Southee both bowled some deliveries that had the batsmen troubled, but they generally looked composed and patient. - Mykuhl

Lunch, Day 1: The mini-session count is tied up, 1-1

The first wicket came in a rather unexpected manner. First was the bowler, Bruce Martin. With all the pre-match talk about the swinging conditions, there would not have been many expecting him to be bowling over 22, let alone there to be no wickets down. Then the fact that the ball genuinely turned. It was pitched on a good length, shaping towards middle and off, and moved away towards first slip. Compton went after it, but was beaten both in flight and by the turn, and ended up just spooning it to point.

While England have only lost one wicket, they have only put on 56 runs. Boult has bowled 8 overs for 6 runs and Martin 4 overs for 3 runs. It's really quite an impressive feat of discipline from both teams so far. The opening is quite even, but New Zealand are probably slightly ahead. - Mykuhl

Middle drinks, Day 1: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 2-1

England are now down to two an over. There was a lot of talk that New Zealand had prepared low, slow wickets because they were scared of England's pace bowlers. Perhaps England are also scared of New Zealand's bowlers? Boult's return so far would suggest that would be sensible: 13-4-23-1. - Mykuhl

Stumps, Day 1: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 4-1

The promised rain finally arrived, just after Wagner managed to get Bell to angle one to Watling. The match position is certainly advantage New Zealand. They start tomorrow with a new ball and only 2 wickets before getting amongst the bowlers. If the ball swings tomorrow like it did today, the two left-armers could be very difficult for the English bowlers to handle. - Mykuhl

First drinks, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 4-1

While England only scored 26 runs in the hour, they managed to survive 14 overs with the new ball without losing a wicket. The New Zealand bowlers managed to cause some problems, but it was really just more attritional cricket. - Mykuhl

Lunch, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 5-1

Another hour to New Zealand. England will probably struggle to get to 260 now. After winning the toss and choosing to bat, that's hardly a good return. The best moment in that hour for England was in the final over, when Martin managed to get a ball to spit out of the footmarks. It was harmless coming from Martin and spinning away, but it would have be a different story from Swann. - Mykuhl

Change of Innings, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 6-1

New Zealand managed to clean up the English tail reasonably cheaply, despite some stubborn resistance. England did manage to get their overall rpo over 2, but not by much. Despite not looking very comfortable at any point at the crease, Bairstow ended up being the top scorer with 41. - Mykuhl

Stumps, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 7-3

Someone needed to take the attack to the bowlers in this match, and Ross Taylor was the man. It was the old Taylor, the one who smashed the ball through the covers, rather than the one we're more used to seeing recently who had put his cover drive away. He scored 10 boundaries through the off side. New Zealand are dominating the mini-session count, but the game is really much closer than 7-3 would suggest. - Mykuhl

First drinks, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 7-4

England are well into this match now. New Zealand now really need a good partnership from Southee and Watling. Even Watling (who normally is very assured on defense) was playing away from his body with hard hands. That was a product of the pressure that the English bowlers have managed to exert on the New Zealand batsmen this morning. We are generally getting a display of quality bowling. - Mykuhl

Lunch, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 7-5

England are now starting to take control of this match. That may prove to be the decisive hour in the course of the match. England cleaned up New Zealand's tail, and then set an aggressive platform with the bat. - Mykuhl

Middle drinks, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 8-5

This game is turning into a great match. New Zealand have probably played the most good cricket, but England is probably in the lead by a small margin. New Zealand won't want to be chasing more than 270. - Mykuhl

Tea, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 8-6

New Zealand slowed the game down considerably in that hour, trying to stop England's progress. It was to no avail. England have moved into a convincing lead now. - Mykuhl

Final drinks, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 8-7

New Zealand are in some serious trouble now. The way things are going at the moment, England are looking like they are heading towards a substantial lead. Trott and Root have been magnificent. The pitch seems to be getting slightly better, but I'm not sure if it's getting better quickly enough for New Zealand to be able to chase down a score near 400. - Mykuhl

Stumps, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 9-7

And in the space of 7 overs the game changes again. This game is now pure intrigue. With the chance of rain on Monday, all 4 results are still possible. It's hard to say who is in the lead at this point in the game. It is quite conceivable that New Zealand will bowl out England for another 40 runs, and then knock off the target. It's also not beyond the realms of possibility that 14 wickets could fall tomorrow, and England win in a canter. This is exactly why test cricket is the ultimate in sporting events. - Mykuhl

Change of Innings, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 10-7

New Zealand will be happy with that. Southee was irresistible, picking up 10/108, the second best match figures by a New Zealander in England after Dion Nash's 11/169. New Zealand need 239 to win. The game is evenly poised, but New Zealand are probably slight favorites. - Mykuhl

Lunch, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 10-8

And just like that the game swings totally in England's favour. Stuart Broad has treated the New Zealand batsmen like a Jack Russell terrier treats a rat. He's shaken them up, and then killed them off. It's a demonstration of cricketing virtuosity. - Mykuhl

End of match: New Zealand win the mini-session count 10-9 but England win the match.

And England clean it up. A match that was evenly balanced was completely turned on it's head in one decisive hour. Broad has threatened to do this a number of times, but today he has realised the potential that he has shown in the past. - Mykuhl

Tuesday, 21 August 2012

Mini-session Analysis 3rd test Eng SA Lord's, London 2012

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the third test between England and South Africa at Lord's, London, England.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

1-1aSouth Africa 27/1 off 13England
1-1bSouth Africa 38/3 off 11England
1-2aSouth Africa 40/1 off 14.1draw
1-2bSouth Africa 46/0 off 16.5South Africa
1-3aSouth Africa 50/1 off 15South Africa
1-3bSouth Africa 61/1 off 17.4South Africa
2-1aSouth Africa 45/2 off 13England
2-1bSouth Africa 2/1 off 0.4South Africa
England 29/1 off 10.4
2-2aEngland 25/3 off 12.4South Africa
2-2bEngland 40/0 off 14.4England
2-3aEngland 48/0 off 14England
2-3bEngland 66/1 off 20England
3-1aEngland 35/1 off 14South Africa
3-1bEngland 34/2 off 11South Africa
3-2aEngland 38/2 off 10.3South Africa
3-2bSouth Africa 33/0 off 15draw
3-3aSouth Africa 37/2 off 15England
3-3bSouth Africa 75/1 off 20South Africa
4-1aSouth Africa 38/1 off 13South Africa
4-1bSouth Africa 33/0 off 13.4South Africa
4-2aSouth Africa 52/2 off 14.2England
4-2bSouth Africa 38/1 off 16England
4-3aSouth Africa 39/1 off 15England
4-3bSouth Africa 6/2 off 2.2South Africa
England 16/2 off 13
5-1aEngland 29/2 off 13South Africa
5-1bEngland 75/0 off 14England
5-2aEngland 54/2 off 15South Africa
5-2bEngland 47/1 off 15England
5-3aEngland 73/3 off 12.5England


South Africa win the mini-session count 14-13, and they close out the match and the series.

This was the closest of the 3 matches, but South Africa were still clearly better than England. The overall mini-session count for the series was 47-31 to South Africa. They clearly deserved to win the series.

Friday, 18 May 2012

Mini-session Analysis 1st test Eng WI Lords 2012



Here is the final mini-session analysis for the first test between England and the West Indies at Lords, London, England.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-SessionScoreWinner
1-1aWest Indies 32/2 off 14.5England
1-1bWest Indies 51/0 off 14.1West Indies
1-2aWest Indies 31/2 off 14England
1-2bWest Indies 32/0 off 15West Indies
1-3aWest Indies 41/2 off 14England
1-3bWest Indies 56/3 off 17.4England
2-1aWest Indies 0/1 off 0.1England
England 47/1 off 11.5
2-1bEngland 33/0 off 11.1England
2-2aEngland 38/0 off 13England
2-2bEngland 49/0 off 15England
2-3aEngland 39/1 off 17West Indies
2-3bEngland 53/1 off 12.2England
3-1aEngland 44/2 off 11.4West Indies
3-1bEngland 38/2 off 12West Indies
3-2aEngland 57/3 off 9.3England
3-2bWest Indies 36/3 off 14.1England
3-3aWest Indies 33/1 off 18.5England
3-3bWest Indies 51/0 off 17West Indies
4-1aWest Indies 40/0 off 15West Indies
4-1bWest Indies 52/0 off 14West Indies
4-2aWest Indies 23/1 off 15England
4-2bWest Indies 30/1 off 13draw
4-3aWest Indies 49/2 off 12draw
4-3bWest Indies 31/2 off 11.5West Indies
England 10/2 off 4
5-1aEngland 60/2 off 13draw
5-1bEngland 61/0 off 15England
5-2aEngland 62/1 off 14.1England

End of match England win the count 15-9 and win the match by 5 wickets. Darren Sammy has proven to be good at getting his team into positions where they are competing. He's taken some good sides to the wire. And lost every time. He managed to stop the boundaries, but left plenty of chances for England to hit singles, and they happily ran their way to victory. They ran 79 runs off the last 29.1 overs. That is a lot too many singles to be giving up on the final day when a team is chasing 181.

Sammy did the same thing against India and Australia. There's nothing wrong with giving up runs while trying to get wickets. You just need to provide an incentive for risky behaviour. If you know a player likes to reverse sweep, then leave a gap for him, but get the bowler to bowl a line that makes that shot difficult. Or bowl a line that makes it easy, but fill that gap. Instead Sammy seems to feel that cutting off boundaries creates pressure, and batsmen want to score boundaries, so the batsmen will try something rash and get out. This is a great tactic against impatient batsmen, but Cook and Trott did not fit into that category.

I rate Sammy generally. I feel he makes the right bowling changes. He motivates his team well. The players seem to play for him. But he does not set good fields in test matches. Until he fixes this he will continue to be a captain that gets his players to play well, but not win. That's not a reputation that he wants.

First drinks break day 5: England still lead 13-9. While conventional wisdom would suggest that taking 2 wickets in the first hour would have given the first session to West Indies, England scored 60 runs off 13 overs. The game is in the sort of position that any result is open. I love test cricket.

Stumps day 4: England lead 13-9. What a fight back. West Indies have well and truly got themselves into this game. I'm delighted, because we will get to see some great test cricket tomorrow. Everything went to the script today for West Indies. Samuels and Chanderpaul were magnificent. Ramdin batted sensibly. Sammy scored some quick runs. Gabriel suggested with the bat that the comparisons with Chris Martin were a little premature.

Then Kemar Roach turned the heat up. He's still not bowling as quick as we expect from him according to the speedball radar. But the batsmen don't seem to have enough time, which means he's quick enough. He was described by one commentator as the ghost of West Indies past, but he's a very different bowler to the four horsemen. He tends to use line more than length to dismiss batsmen. He does have one similarity with Andy Roberts in that he changes his pace effectively to keep batsmen guessing. A big part of the art of a fast bowler is getting the batsmen to react to their bowling, hurrying their shots and causing them to follow the ball. Roach does this very well.

We're all set up for a great chase tomorrow. 181 runs, 8 wickets on a dying pitch. Brilliant.

First drinks day 4: England lead the count 12-7. West Indies have made a good start, and have gotten a lead up. If they were to have written a plan for the first hour, knocking off the deficit without losing any wickets would have probably been it.

Stumps day 3: England lead the count 12-6. I though about calling 3-2a a draw, as England were bowled out, but they scored so many runs that despite losing 3 wickets in 9 overs, they were probably in a better place at the end of the hour than they were at the start of it.

The real story of the day came at the end of the middle session, when West Indies lost 3 wickets without adding a run. Their ability to have horrific collapses is very much reminiscent of New Zealand in the mid 1990's. It is a terrible habit to get into, and one that seems to be very difficult to break.

The Samuels-Chanderpaul combination has looked solid, but West Indies need them to really bat well tomorrow. Samuels has shown that playing in the IPL doesn't necessarily ruin someone for test match cricket. To have a realistic chance at winning this game, West Indies probably need another 250 runs. The current format for West Indies totals means that Chanderpaul will have to bat for a long time, and the others will need to score at the other end. Samuels is a much better player than an average of 29 would suggest. Perhaps this is his time to step up.

If the rain keeps away, and West Indies are still batting at tea tomorrow we could have a grandstand finish. However, it's probably more likely to be a procession where England knock off the final wickets for about 70 then score the runs for the loss of 0 or 1 wicket. As much as it hurts me to say that.

Lunch day 3: England lead the count 9-5. Sammy showed in that last hour exactly why a lot of people don't rate him. And also why a lot of people do rate him. He moved the ball enough to take the edge, made the batsmen think about what they were doing, and stop them playing instinctively. It will be interesting to see what he does after lunch. I would imagine that he will go for Roach and Edwards, but Gabriel is bowling with some menace, and it might be a good idea to give him a couple of overs after the break.

Bell has batted through the morning, accumulating runs effectively, and without really getting noticed.

First drinks, day 3: England lead the count 9-4. Kemar Roach has taken two good wickets, and has continued to stand high above the rest of the West Indian bowlers. This partnership between Prior and Bell is a vital one. The English bowlers are very good at batting against the old ball, but I'm not so sure they will be as good against a new ball.

Stumps day 2: England lead the count 9-3. West Indies hardly had anything to smile about today. They lost their last wicket on the first ball. They then took only 3 wickets on an overcast day with a reasonably fresh pitch.

Sammy was unlucky to not have Trott lbw just after lunch, and England made them pay. Sammy finally got his man, but it took 40 more overs. The battle between Trott and Sammy was one of the highlights. Trott was moving well forward, often trying to attack, and Sammy was trying to keep the ball in the awkward areas. Sammy won this round, with Trott only scoring 24 off the 52 balls he faced of Sammy's.

The other highlight for the West Indians was the bowling of Shannon Gabriel. While he didn't take any wickets he got it through well (only bowler this match to get over 145km/h), and looks like the sort of bowler who could be very effective against the tail. (Although looking back through his recent matches, only 4 of his last 21 wickets were numbers 9, 10 or 11, so he has actually tended to be more effective against decent batsmen)

But the overwhelming story of the day was Andrew Strauss getting his century. He's been under some pressure recently as there is only so long a team can keep a captain who isn't contributing with the bat (or ball). This was a magnificent hundred. One half chance, when he was dropped off a no ball, but other than that it was immaculate. He cut and drove the ball to the fence, some of the shots with exquisite timing. He got tied down for a while in the middle of the day, at one point scoring only 2 runs off 31 deliveries, but his patience was rewarded and he put up a score that has put his team into a commanding position.

Lunch day 2: England lead the count 6-2. England move further ahead in the match. Sammy came on, but Trott had answers to all his questions. If the rain keeps away it could be a very interesting 2nd session, as there will still be plenty in the air for the West Indian bowlers, but England will want to keep up their positive intent. A couple of wickets just after lunch could make this a very interesting match.

First drinks break day 2: England move ahead 5-2. It was going convincingly to England before that final wicket. Still England's hour. Now when will we see Sammy bowl?

Stumps day 1: England lead the count 4-2. They are ahead in the match, and are about where they would have wanted to be at the start of the day after winning the toss. West Indies won't be too upset though, as they have some decent runs on the board and there seems to be plenty of life, both in the pitch and in the air.

Anderson slowed down his pace in order to get more movement, and looked quite dangerous. Which suggests that Darren Sammy could be quite a handful on this pitch. It should be an interesting second day.