Martin Guptill and the form myth

Every season there seems to be a cause célèbre among NZ cricket fans. In 2013 the call was that Brendon McCullum wasn't scoring enough runs, and needed to be dropped. In 2013-14 it was that Peter Fulton wasn't scoring enough runs and needed to be dropped. This season the overwhelming majority of cricket talk in New Zealand has been about one man: Martin Guptill. Apparently he isn't scoring enough runs and needs to be dropped.

In either calls to Radio Sport or comments on the Vietchy On Sport facebook page there have been at least 21 players suggested as being a better option as an opener than Martin Guptill. People have suggested different ways that he might get injured in order to get him replaced in the squad.

But the opinion that Guptill's significantly out if form is not just confined to the uninformed public (I consider anyone that suggest Michael Pollard, Peter Ingram or Kyle Mills as replacements for Guptill uninformed). There have been a number of the country's sports journalists join in. In a quite well written and balanced piece, Andrew Alderson noted that Guptill "struggled for form." Charlie Bristow talked of Mike Hesson needing "to handle Martin Guptill's stuttering form." Mark Geenty commented that the top order was carrying "significance and concern." Guy Heveldt said that Guptill is "under immense pressure to find some form before the World Cup begins." Daniel Richardson said that Guptill is "out of touch", "has done little to inspire confidence" and that his "form is a concern."

Bowling in the IPL

Last year I had a look at how much wickets cost in the IPL, and devised a formula to calculate the value of a bowler in a team. I used that formula in a number of other cases throughout last year, and it seemed to bring some fairly sensible results each time, so I've decided to try it again with this years IPL as the first stage draws to a close.

Here is the top 15 bowlers, with their modified run rates. This takes into account the benefit that they have provided to the other bowlers in the team through the wickets that they have taken. I limited it to who had bowled at least 10 overs.

	Name	Team	Overs	Wickets	Modified Run Rate
	Sandeep Sharma	Punjab	11	7	2.45
	VR Aaron	Bangalore	14.5	8	2.97
	SP Narine	Kolkata	20	9	3.10
	YS Chahal	Bangalore	19	7	3.47
	SL Malinga	Mumbai	15.3	7	3.61
	AR Patel	Punjab	18	6	4.06
	MM Sharma	Chennai	15.5	8	4.17
	KW Richardson	Rajasthan	15	6	4.40
	PV Tambe	Rajasthan	20	7	4.60
	R Dhawan	Punjab	13.2	4	4.65
	R Ashwin	Chennai	17.5	5	4.65
	B Kumar	Hyderabad	15.3	6	4.71
	MA Starc	Bangalore	20	7	4.80
	IC Pandey	Chennai	15	3	4.87
	R Bhatia	Rajasthan	16	6	4.94

Somewhat unsurprisingly the top name in the list is the current rising star of the IPL - Sandeep Sharma.

His heady medium pace bowling has been a big part of the success that Kings XI have enjoyed. Often medium pacers can enjoy good results in limited overs cricket through consistency, But Sharma offers something more than that.

Right arm inswinger is a style of bowling that is normally only seen at the junior grades. Top senior batsmen normally develop a technique that allows them to avoid being dismissed by it, and then they can just wait for the inevitable bad delivery that slips into the pads and can be dispatched.

Sharma has managed to bowl consistently enough that he has only been hit for one leg-side boundary in 11 overs. If players are having to look on the off side for their runs from an inswing bowler then they are at risk of leaving the gate open.

If Sharma manages to continue to bowl as consistently, he could be potentially be a real force, not just for Kings XI, but also for India. He could be particularly useful in the World Cup in Australia/New Zealand where the ability to move the ball in the air is a real asset.