Using Added Value to measure cricket performances - Part 1

The palpable drop in air pressure from 41000 people collectively inhaling is something that is hard to understand unless you've experienced it. Dale Steyn was bowling to Grant Elliott.

Eden Park in full World Cup mode.

Elliott had been a controversial selection. In the first 5 matches he averaged 19.25 at a strike rate just below 82. That's hardly justifying the selectors faith in you.  However, an important innings against Bangladesh, followed by a breathtaking 27 off 11 against West Indies gave him momentum going into this match. Often the concept of momentum is a case of us over-fitting. We see a couple of good performances back to back and assume a causative effect, where there really probably isn't one. However, regardless of the causes, Elliott was playing the sort of innings that quickly made the critics forget that they had been calling for the coach's head for selecting him before the tournament.

There was a significant obstacle in his road to glory. Dale Steyn. Quite possibly the best bowler to have ever strapped on a pair of boots. Throughout history there have been terrifying bowlers. Fred Spofforth, Jeff Thompson, Andy Roberts, Waqar Younis and Brett Lee are examples. There have also been bowlers who could work a batsman out and exploit weaknesses unmercifully. Alec Bedser, Richard Hadlee, Wasim Akram and Glenn McGrath all shared this trait. In Steyn, South Africa had someone who was in both camps. Possibly only Larwood, Truman, Lillee, Holding and Marshall have been there like Steyn.

But now there was 2 balls left, and 5 needed. Steyn with his tail up bowling to Elliott on 78 off 72. Elliott had previously hit a bouncer for 6, and Steyn's last yorker had gone for 4. Eden Park's short straight boundary meant that bowling full was risky, and bowling short could ask for a top edge carrying for 6. Better instead to try to get him to hit to the longest boundary so Steyn opted for a length ball....

The palpable increase in air pressure from 41000 people collectively screaming with exhilaration as the ball clears the boundary is something hard to understand unless you've experienced it.

Mini-session Analysis 1st Test NZvInd, Eden Park 2013/14

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the first test between New Zealand and India at Eden Park, Auckland

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-session analysis, 3rd test, New Zealand England, Eden Park, 2012/3

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the third test between New Zealand and England at Eden Park, Auckland, New Zealand

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	New Zealand 31/0 off 15	draw
1-1b	New Zealand 48/1 off 13	New Zealand
1-2a	New Zealand 48/0 off 15	New Zealand
1-2b	New Zealand 46/0 off 16	New Zealand
1-3a	New Zealand 36/0 off 13.4	New Zealand
1-3b	New Zealand 41/0 off 17.2	New Zealand
2-1a	New Zealand 24/1 off 14	England
2-1b	New Zealand 38/2 off 14	England
2-2a	New Zealand 53/1 off 10.4	New Zealand
2-2b	New Zealand 49/1 off 17.2	draw
2-3a	New Zealand 29/4 off 6	New Zealand
2-3b	England 50/2 off 25	New Zealand
3-1a	England 22/3 off 11.5	New Zealand
3-1b	England 20/0 off 17.1	New Zealand
3-2a	England 39/0 off 15	England
3-2b	England 45/1 off 14	draw
3-3a	England 28/4 off 6.2	New Zealand
3-3b	New Zealand 20/3 off 11	England
3-3c	New Zealand 15/0 off 12	England
4-1a	New Zealand 47/1 off 12.3	New Zealand
4-1b	New Zealand 94/0 off 13.3	New Zealand
4-2a	New Zealand 65/2 off 8.2	New Zealand
4-2b	England 45/1 off 16	New Zealand
4-3a	England 32/1 off 20	New Zealand
4-3b	England 13/2 off 16.1	New Zealand
5-1a	England 37/0 off 16.5	England
5-1b	England 31/1 off 14	New Zealand
5-2a	England 41/1 off 13	England
5-2b	England 38/1 off 14.3	draw
5-3a	England 38/0 off 17.3	England
5-3b	England 40/2 off 15	New Zealand

Final update, click here
The match is drawn, but New Zealand win the mini-session count 19 - 8

First drinks, Day 1: The mini-session count is tied up, 0-0

A steady, but unspectacular start from New Zealand after being inserted. I do wonder if McCullum was actually foxing about wanting to bowl first.

Lunch, Day 1: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 1-0

A good start by Rutherford and Fulton was soured by a loss of concentration by Rutherford at the end of the session. Still New Zealand are in a good position.

Final drinks, Day 1: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 4-0

England have almost seemed to give up on trying to get a wicket, and are hoping that these two batsmen will get themselves out. Their lines and lengths have not been what should be expected of a test attack. Only Stuart Broad has had the batsmen under any sort of pressure.

Stumps, Day 1: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 5-0

This pitch is not as easy to bat on as these two are making it look. I was watching the majority of that hour from square of the wicket, and the bounce was variable.

First drinks, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 5-1

England finally found a way through this partnership. It's the third largest partnership against England in New Zealand, and the third largest 2nd wicket partnership at Eden Park.

Final drinks, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 7-2

Southee batting at 8 doesn't make much sense when a team is trying to save a match. In a situation like this, however, it's a great move. He has taken the game to England, and New Zealand now have a respectable first innings score, and much faster than it was looking like.

Stumps, Day 2: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 8-2

Trent Boult picked up two wickets to make it well and truely New Zealand's day. England will need to bat well tomorrow.

First drinks, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 9-2

Boult and Southee were in Sri Lanka form this morning. They looked unstopable. England are in serious trouble now.

Lunch, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 10-2

20 runs in the hour. While Wagner and Martin didn't make the breakthrough, they certainly kept things tight.

Tea, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 10-3

England were looking very good there until Prior made a bad call and played a shot that he will regret. New Zealand now have one end open with the new ball.

Change of innings, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 11-3

Trent Boult and Tim Southee finished off the tail. Boult was probably unlucky that Southee dismissed Root at the end, as he would have probably backed himself to pick up Monty fairly quickly and turn 6 into 7. McCullum chose not to enforce the follow on, which seems the right decision to me. It means he gets to chose the heavy roller twice, he gets to give his bowlers a rest and he isn't going to have to bat last on a potentially deteriorating pitch. I'd expect this pitch to take some real turn on the last day and a half.

Final drinks, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 11-4

What a disastrous start by New Zealand. Anderson and Borad have combined to leave New Zealand in tatters. England have a serious sniff now. Perhaps McCullum made the wrong call.

Stumps, Day 3: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 11-5

New Zealand see out the day, but what was their day suddenly took a dive at the end. Still New Zealand are in a stronger place at the end of the day than at the start of it. 11 wickets fell again today. This is starting to look very interesting.

First drinks, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 12-5

Fulton and Brownlie made some steady progress in the morning. They have gone close to getting New Zealand to safety. Probably New Zealand want about another 80 runs before a lunchtime declaration.

Lunch, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 13-5

With Fulton into the 90s, a lunchtime declaration is now probably off the cards. Perhaps once he gets to 100 it will be time to head back?

Middle drinks, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 14-5

McCullum took a lot longer to declare than I was expecting, but it might have been due to the runs being so easy to score this morning. The fear that one English batsman would "do an Astle" is probably too strong. Cook is likely to be criticized for his tactics in that hour, but they were sensible, given the situation.

Tea, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 15-5

An early breakthrough, and England are looking shaky now. They need a big partnership.

Stumps, Day 4: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 17-5

The thought that Kane Williamson would have provided the vital breakthroughs at the end of the day was quite surprising, but he certainly bowled well. Cook looked furious at himself, while Finn looked like a wicket waiting to happen.

First drinks, Day 5: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 17-6

Solid batting from Root and Bell. New Zealand really need a wicket before lunch, so they can bowl at new batsmen with the new ball.

Lunch, Day 5: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 18-6

The wicket came with the first delivery of the new ball. And there could have been more. First Bairstow survived an lbw shout that turned out to be very close, and then both batsmen were dropped off Boult's second over with the new ball. The big question now is if they will make the most of their lives.

Middle drinks, Day 5: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 18-7

England make steady progress through the day, but New Zealand chip out another one. Prior is living dangerously. His 20 has come off 24 balls, and has included a couple of top edges, some playing and missing, and two very close umpiring calls.

Tea, Day 5: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 18-7

It had started to look like these two were going to see it out, but then Wagner removed Southee to complete the session, and now the impetus is back with New Zealand.

Final drinks, Day 5: New Zealand lead the mini-session count 18-8

Superb from Prior and Broad. This is a big innings for Broad in particular. He has been talked up as a batsman for a long time, here is a chance for him to deliver.

Stumps, Day 5: The match is drawn, but New Zealand take the mini-session count 19-8

A thrilling end, even if somewhat of a let down for the home-town supporters. There was an older gentleman, probably in his late 70's or early 80's sitting a couple of seats along from me. When Anderson was dismissed he was up out of his chair, waving his hand above his head and shouting. No sport creates emotion like a test match. In the end New Zealand didn't do quite enough to win the match. They will rue the dropped catches, as well as the ball hitting Prior's stumps, but not knocking the bails off.

England will probably be more relieved than proud of their effort. Prior stood out like a sore thumb amongst his compatriots, while New Zealand had a number of candidates for an internal man of the match. It's a match that will live on in the memories of everyone who was fortunate enough to have watched it.

The great choke

I've just gotten home from watching New Zealand lose an unlosable match to South Africa at Eden Park.

It was a terrible match to watch as a New Zealand fan, but a fascinating game as a cricket purist. Here were 5 things I noticed:

1. Jesse Ryder found then lost his mojo.

Ryder came out and started off well. He was scoring quite quickly, but he was (generally) doing it in sensible ways, and (finally) was moving his feet like he did in 2010, rather than standing and swishing like he did against Australia earlier this year.

Then the rain came. And he lost his foot work and his batting sense. With 5 overs to go, Ryder was on 44 off 25. He had been scoring well with boundaries, but off the 20 balls that he didn't hit to the fence he had scored 16. From his next 16 balls he scored 8 runs. He was pre-determining, not moving his feet and was generally like a possum in headlights, or Sachin Tendulkar right before a break.

2. Kane Williamson suddenly stopped being Kane Williamson.

If Williamson was a superhero his name would be Placement Boy. He has the ability to find the gaps and put the ball where he wants it to be. And that ability completely evaded him. Instead he hit 6 of 8 before going for a mad heave across the line rather than trying to hit a single.

3. Franklin and McCullum not swapping ends.

New Zealand needed 6 off 4, and nMac tried a paddle scoop shot. While it's a bit unorthodox, there's nothing particularly wrong with that. What was disappointing was the batsmen not crossing while the ball went half way to the moon before getting into de Villiers' gloves.

Franklin jogged through, rather than running through. McCullum stood and watched in horror as the ball headed to the keeper, and hardly moved at all. It was a play that a second division business house team would have been distraught at. It mean that the new man needed to face the next ball, and was somehow expected to score immediately, rather than leaving it up to the batsman who was in. Poor, poor cricket.

4. Sending out Southee rather than Hira to bat for the last ball.

Southee is a good bowler. He can hit a big ball. But it is a stretch to accuse him of having a track record of heady cricket. Hira is known precisely for playing smart cricket.

While it was likely that the batsman who was sent out would not need to face a ball, there was always the chance that there would be a no ball, and having someone who was quick to make a good decision would be a good idea. Someone who could get back for a second would be hugely valuable.

But instead New Zealand sent out Southee instead of the Worlds Fastest Indian. Having someone who could get (even halfway) back would have left Franklin in strike needing 3 or 4 to win, and potentially 2 to tie, and Hira there to run like only Hira or Guptill can.

5. Four bouncers in an over.

Marchant de Lange managed to find the zone just between where a batsman finds it comfortable to play a short ball and where an umpire will start to warn him for it.

His final over contained 4 bouncers, and he was still allowed his 1 per over, as none of them were high enough in the opinion of the square leg umpire to be his 1 for the over.

Conventional wisdom suggests that the best option at the death is full and straight, but at Eden Park, with the new layout of short straight boundaries and longish square ones full and straight is asking for trouble. Instead he bowled a fantastic final over and put all the pressure back on the New Zealand batsmen.

It seems in the age of darting left arm spinners, that there is still a place for aggressive fast bowling.