First, the probability of different results based on first innings scores. This suggests that a score of 300 is roughly the point where a team is more likely to win than lose, while the 50% winning score is roughly 370.
Showing posts with label Dubai. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dubai. Show all posts
Saturday, 24 November 2018
Historical statistical preview of the Second Test, Pakistan vs NZ
I've decided to put together a short summary of some of the historical trends at Dubai, before this match.
First, the probability of different results based on first innings scores. This suggests that a score of 300 is roughly the point where a team is more likely to win than lose, while the 50% winning score is roughly 370.
First, the probability of different results based on first innings scores. This suggests that a score of 300 is roughly the point where a team is more likely to win than lose, while the 50% winning score is roughly 370.
Monday, 17 November 2014
Preview 2nd Test, Pakistan vs New Zealand, Dubai 2014
After the towelling that New Zealand got in the first test, they have said exactly the sort of things that you would expect them to say. "It's about changing our mindset" "We need to win the toss and bat" "We've identified the areas that we need to improve." etc. The interesting question is more "are they good enough to adapt?"
Mark Richardson commented on the radio that New Zealand are a good team, but not good enough that they won't have occasional matches where they get blown away.
The pitch in Dubai is actually quite different to Sharjah. Teams don't often put up big scores batting first here. There's life for the seamers early on, and some reward if a bowler bends his back, but ultimately this is a ground that suits spin.
The most intriguing battle for me will be McCullum vs Zulfiqar. The other thing I'll be looking at will be the flight that the NZ spinners bowl with. If they can bowl flatter and faster without losing their rhythm they could be a real handful.
Overall, this is shaping up as another intriguing test.
Mark Richardson commented on the radio that New Zealand are a good team, but not good enough that they won't have occasional matches where they get blown away.
The pitch in Dubai is actually quite different to Sharjah. Teams don't often put up big scores batting first here. There's life for the seamers early on, and some reward if a bowler bends his back, but ultimately this is a ground that suits spin.
The most intriguing battle for me will be McCullum vs Zulfiqar. The other thing I'll be looking at will be the flight that the NZ spinners bowl with. If they can bowl flatter and faster without losing their rhythm they could be a real handful.
Overall, this is shaping up as another intriguing test.
Wednesday, 8 January 2014
Mini-session Analysis, 2nd test, Pakistan vs Sri Lanka, Dubai 2013/14
Here is the final mini-session analysis for the second test between Pakistan and Sri Lanka at Dubai International Cricket Stadium, Dubai, United Arab EmiratesA mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.
Friday, 3 February 2012
Preview - 3rd Test Pak Eng Dubai 11/12
The third test. A dead rubber, but one with a lot to play for.
Pakistan have the chance to really stamp their authority on England. They are starting to look like they are a team that is capable of reaching the top of world cricket.
England however got in a winning position in the last game, and then dropped it badly. Now they get their chance to get something out of this tour. If England lose this, then They create an opening for South Africa to take over the number 1 spot in the world rankings.
Individual players are also under some pressure. Younis Khan, Andrew Strauss, Eion Morgan, Keven Pietersen and Ian Bell have all yet to make a mark with the bat, and Graeme Swann has mostly been ineffective with the ball.
The pitch sounds interesting, apparently it has a good covering of grass, and so it could provide some early assistance for the English seamers. Ironically the bowler who might be the most important cog in the wheel in this match is Jonathan Trott. His seam-up's may prove to be vital for England.
Betting tips:
Normally my advice is "don't bet on matches involving Pakistan, they are too unpredictable." That advice still holds.
However if you really wanted to put your money somewhere, try Taufeeq Umar under 38.5 at $1.57. He is in average form, there's some grass on the wicket, and Broad and Anderson are great bowlers.
Also England to have a 1st innings lead at $1.90 is not a bad look, given that the best batting conditions are likely to be on days 2 and 3.
Pakistan have the chance to really stamp their authority on England. They are starting to look like they are a team that is capable of reaching the top of world cricket.
England however got in a winning position in the last game, and then dropped it badly. Now they get their chance to get something out of this tour. If England lose this, then They create an opening for South Africa to take over the number 1 spot in the world rankings.
Individual players are also under some pressure. Younis Khan, Andrew Strauss, Eion Morgan, Keven Pietersen and Ian Bell have all yet to make a mark with the bat, and Graeme Swann has mostly been ineffective with the ball.
The pitch sounds interesting, apparently it has a good covering of grass, and so it could provide some early assistance for the English seamers. Ironically the bowler who might be the most important cog in the wheel in this match is Jonathan Trott. His seam-up's may prove to be vital for England.
Betting tips:
Normally my advice is "don't bet on matches involving Pakistan, they are too unpredictable." That advice still holds.
However if you really wanted to put your money somewhere, try Taufeeq Umar under 38.5 at $1.57. He is in average form, there's some grass on the wicket, and Broad and Anderson are great bowlers.
Also England to have a 1st innings lead at $1.90 is not a bad look, given that the best batting conditions are likely to be on days 2 and 3.
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Mini-session analysis for 1st Test Pak Eng 11/12
Here is the mini-session analysis for the 1st test between Pakistan and England in Dubai. I will be updating this from time to time throughout the match. (It is not in a good timezone for me to do it regularly)
A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.
Pakistan win the mini-session count 10-8. Surprisingly close for such a one-sided match. The bowling side won 12 of the 18 mini-sessions, which probably explains in part how the game was over inside 3 days. Pakistan's first innings was the only first innings total in the last 5 years under 350 to set up a 10 wicket victory.
There is probably much wringing of hands going on in England at the moment, but I still feel that these are two freak results. Here are how the first 5 wickets happened in each England innings:
Cook edged a short ball from Hafeez (bad delivery - unlucky wicket)
Trott got strangled down the leg-side off Aizaz Cheema (bad delivery - unlucky wicket)
Strauss was beaten in flight, tried to pull a full straight one (good delivery - bad shot)
Bell doesn't pick a doosra and gets an edge behind (good delivery - credit to bowler)
Pietersen played down the wrong line to a straight one (reasonable delivery - bad shot)
Strauss strangled down the leg side. Quite possibly didn't hit it (bad ball - unlucky dismissal)
Cook strangled down the leg side (bad ball - unlucky dismissal)
Pietersen top edged a pull shot to a good short ball (good delivery - bad shot)
Bell completely misread a good delivery (good delivery - credit to the bowler)
Morgan gets beaten by a good ball and edges behind (good delivery - credit to the bowler)
I will be surprised if there are so many unlucky dismissals in such a short space of time in the 2nd match. It is always possible, that is part of what makes cricket interesting. A wide half volley sometimes results in a wicket when a searing inswinging yorker on middle stump is sometimes defended (and occasionally gets hit to the fence for 4 - as Lara did to Danny Morrison first ball of a marvelous hundred).
The England will need to work on getting their feet moving more effectively to the spinners, and perhaps waiting until they have their eyes in before playing across the line; but they are seriously good players, and I expect them to come back from this. This match has a similar feel to the 2nd test between South Africa and Sri Lanka. The third test in that series should give England some hope.
A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.
| Session | Score | Winner |
| 1-1a | England 31/2 off 12.3 | Pakistan |
| 1-1b | England 21/3 off 15.3 | Pakistan |
| 1-2a | England 41/1 off 14 | England |
| 1-2b | England 45/1 off 13 | England |
| 1-3a | England 53/3 off 17.3 | Pakistan |
| 1-3b | Pakistan 42/0 off 15 | Pakistan |
| 2-1a | Pakistan 48/0 off 15 | Pakistan |
| 2-1b | Pakistan 48/2 off 13 | England |
| 2-2a | Pakistan 38/1 off 13.4 | England |
| 2-2b | Pakistan 37/1 off 15.2 | England |
| 2-3a | Pakistan 47/1 off 19 | Pakistan |
| 2-3b | Pakistan 38/2 off 13.3 | England |
| 3-1a | Pakistan 46/2 off 14.3 | England |
| 3-1b | Pakistan 4/1 off 0.5 | Pakistan |
| England 16/1 off 8 | ||
| 3-2a | England 19/3 off 12.1 | Pakistan |
| 3-2b | England 40/1 off 15 | England |
| 3-3a | England 51/2 off 15 | Pakistan |
| 3-3b | England 34/3 off 7.5 | Pakistan |
| Pakistan 15/0 off 3.4 |
Pakistan win the mini-session count 10-8. Surprisingly close for such a one-sided match. The bowling side won 12 of the 18 mini-sessions, which probably explains in part how the game was over inside 3 days. Pakistan's first innings was the only first innings total in the last 5 years under 350 to set up a 10 wicket victory.
There is probably much wringing of hands going on in England at the moment, but I still feel that these are two freak results. Here are how the first 5 wickets happened in each England innings:
Cook edged a short ball from Hafeez (bad delivery - unlucky wicket)
Trott got strangled down the leg-side off Aizaz Cheema (bad delivery - unlucky wicket)
Strauss was beaten in flight, tried to pull a full straight one (good delivery - bad shot)
Bell doesn't pick a doosra and gets an edge behind (good delivery - credit to bowler)
Pietersen played down the wrong line to a straight one (reasonable delivery - bad shot)
Strauss strangled down the leg side. Quite possibly didn't hit it (bad ball - unlucky dismissal)
Cook strangled down the leg side (bad ball - unlucky dismissal)
Pietersen top edged a pull shot to a good short ball (good delivery - bad shot)
Bell completely misread a good delivery (good delivery - credit to the bowler)
Morgan gets beaten by a good ball and edges behind (good delivery - credit to the bowler)
I will be surprised if there are so many unlucky dismissals in such a short space of time in the 2nd match. It is always possible, that is part of what makes cricket interesting. A wide half volley sometimes results in a wicket when a searing inswinging yorker on middle stump is sometimes defended (and occasionally gets hit to the fence for 4 - as Lara did to Danny Morrison first ball of a marvelous hundred).
The England will need to work on getting their feet moving more effectively to the spinners, and perhaps waiting until they have their eyes in before playing across the line; but they are seriously good players, and I expect them to come back from this. This match has a similar feel to the 2nd test between South Africa and Sri Lanka. The third test in that series should give England some hope.
Tuesday, 17 January 2012
Preview - Pak Eng 1st Test Dubai 11/12
The two top performing sides from last year meet in a mouthwatering match up.
The attacking England vs the conservative Pakistan. It seems like a role reversal from recent years.
England have an interesting choice. I feel it's between Eion Morgan and Monty Panesar. Prior, Broad and Swann are a fantastic 7,8,9 but they would actually still be a very good 6,7,8. Having the extra bowler to spread the load, and particularly having an extra spin bolwer (and one who is in form) is not a bad look. However England got a lot of bowling out of Pietersen and Trott last year, and they might be keen on relying on them again, and keeping their line up as similar as possible.
Pakistan are likely to go into the match with 3 front line spinners, Saeed Ajmal, Mohammed Hafeez and Abdur Rehman. This will be interesting, as it will provide a good examination for England's batsmen new found confidence against spin. They have been improving solidly over the last few years against spin, but the conditions in Dubai might provide a point of difference.
England vs spin last 4 years:
It is hard to see where the wickets are going to come from, other than patience. In the last couple of years that matches have been played in UAE, only Junaid Khan has averaged under 30 with a strike rate under 60. (Welegedara got close). There are likely to be some big scores, particularly from the patient batsmen like Misbah-ul-Haq and Alister Cook.
Things to watch for:
1. Mohammed Hafeez. He has bowled like a genius recently. He doesn't have all the tricks like Saeed Ajmal, he just bowls really well. However his batting has slipped. Will he continue on his Dipak Patelesque journey from batsman who bowls a bit to bowler who bats a bit, or will he step up with the bat too?
2. Swann vs Ajmal. Two very different spinners, both capable of doing a lot of damage with the ball. Who will come out on top?
3. Wahab Riaz and Umar Gul. When they are on, both can be devastating bowlers. The Emerati air is not likely to help with the swing too much, but any assistance that is offered they will be sure to take advantage of.
4. Who faces the first ball for England? When he's been captain, Strauss has averaged 23 less when he faces the first ball than when he doesn't. It possibly takes him a while to switch out of the more macro captain thinking into the more micro opener thinking.
Betting tips:
1. Top England batsman - Jonathan Trott $4.50. He averages 85 in the first match of a series. He likes to lay down a marker. He also averages 67 against Pakistan. Probably about a 30% probability.
2. Top Pakistan batsman - Younis Khan. $4.50, Misbah-ul-Haq $5.50. I'm actually going to take both here because I think that one of these two will be the top scorer. The conditions are likely to suit Misbah, but Younis has not averaged under 50 for a year since 2004, and he often does well in the first two games of a series. My split will be 20 on Misbah and 25 on Younis. It will return slightly more on Younis Khan, because I think he is slightly more likely to be top scorer.
3. Younis Khan to outscore Maohammad Hafeez $1.83. Seems easy money to me. Hafeez scored 143 against Bangladesh, but that is a slightly different prospect to playing Anderson, Broad and Tremlett with the new ball.
4. Pakistan not to win. $1.22. I see a draw as the most likely outcome here, but I can't see Pakistan getting England out cheaply twice.
The attacking England vs the conservative Pakistan. It seems like a role reversal from recent years.
England have an interesting choice. I feel it's between Eion Morgan and Monty Panesar. Prior, Broad and Swann are a fantastic 7,8,9 but they would actually still be a very good 6,7,8. Having the extra bowler to spread the load, and particularly having an extra spin bolwer (and one who is in form) is not a bad look. However England got a lot of bowling out of Pietersen and Trott last year, and they might be keen on relying on them again, and keeping their line up as similar as possible.
Pakistan are likely to go into the match with 3 front line spinners, Saeed Ajmal, Mohammed Hafeez and Abdur Rehman. This will be interesting, as it will provide a good examination for England's batsmen new found confidence against spin. They have been improving solidly over the last few years against spin, but the conditions in Dubai might provide a point of difference.
England vs spin last 4 years:
| Year | Average |
| 2007 | 37.81 |
| 2008 | 38.54 |
| 2009 | 46.03 |
| 2010 | 51.06 |
| 2011 | 82.73 |
It is hard to see where the wickets are going to come from, other than patience. In the last couple of years that matches have been played in UAE, only Junaid Khan has averaged under 30 with a strike rate under 60. (Welegedara got close). There are likely to be some big scores, particularly from the patient batsmen like Misbah-ul-Haq and Alister Cook.
Things to watch for:
1. Mohammed Hafeez. He has bowled like a genius recently. He doesn't have all the tricks like Saeed Ajmal, he just bowls really well. However his batting has slipped. Will he continue on his Dipak Patelesque journey from batsman who bowls a bit to bowler who bats a bit, or will he step up with the bat too?
2. Swann vs Ajmal. Two very different spinners, both capable of doing a lot of damage with the ball. Who will come out on top?
3. Wahab Riaz and Umar Gul. When they are on, both can be devastating bowlers. The Emerati air is not likely to help with the swing too much, but any assistance that is offered they will be sure to take advantage of.
4. Who faces the first ball for England? When he's been captain, Strauss has averaged 23 less when he faces the first ball than when he doesn't. It possibly takes him a while to switch out of the more macro captain thinking into the more micro opener thinking.
Betting tips:
1. Top England batsman - Jonathan Trott $4.50. He averages 85 in the first match of a series. He likes to lay down a marker. He also averages 67 against Pakistan. Probably about a 30% probability.
2. Top Pakistan batsman - Younis Khan. $4.50, Misbah-ul-Haq $5.50. I'm actually going to take both here because I think that one of these two will be the top scorer. The conditions are likely to suit Misbah, but Younis has not averaged under 50 for a year since 2004, and he often does well in the first two games of a series. My split will be 20 on Misbah and 25 on Younis. It will return slightly more on Younis Khan, because I think he is slightly more likely to be top scorer.
3. Younis Khan to outscore Maohammad Hafeez $1.83. Seems easy money to me. Hafeez scored 143 against Bangladesh, but that is a slightly different prospect to playing Anderson, Broad and Tremlett with the new ball.
4. Pakistan not to win. $1.22. I see a draw as the most likely outcome here, but I can't see Pakistan getting England out cheaply twice.
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