New Zealand's remarkable consistency under McCullum

New Zealand have traditionally had reasonable bowlers and not very good batsmen.

Even New Zealand's best batsmen, Crowe, Reid, Turner and Sutcliffe didn't manage to hold the team together often enough for New Zealand to regularly score big scores.

Before the year 2000 New Zealand had only managed to pass 400 on 52 occasions. (roughly 10% of innings). From 2000 until the end of 2012, they managed to pass 400 on 32 occasions (roughy 17% of innings). Since then, under Brendon McCullum, they have managed to pass 400 on 12 occasions in 32 innings (37.5%).

The consistency has been remarkable.

Under McCullum New Zealand have scored under 200 in 27% of innings. The next best was Fleming with 29.3%. Under every other captain who had the team for at least 5 matches, New Zealand scored less than 200 on at least one third of their innings.

This graphic displays the difference quite well:

Under McCullum, New Zealand have scored over 400 more often than they scored over 300 with most captains.

The team's ability to score 400 regularly is actually impressive when compared globally also.

I decided to look at how often a team scored 400, divided by the number of times they were bowled out.  This eliminates situations where the match situation makes scoring 400 unrealistic, for example where a team scores 90/3 to win a match or declares for 385/7 to set up a win.

Here's the table:

Captain	400's	All Outs	400s per AO
DG Bradman	16	21	0.762
SR Waugh	36	56	0.643
AJ Strauss	27	47	0.574
MJK Smith	11	21	0.524
SC Ganguly	27	52	0.519
RT Ponting	45	89	0.506
SM Gavaskar	21	42	0.5
BB McCullum	12	24	0.5
Imran Khan	20	41	0.488
Mushtaq Mohammad	9	20	0.45
GC Smith	50	112	0.446
MS Dhoni	33	76	0.434
MS Atapattu	9	21	0.429
Waqar Younis	9	21	0.429
SM Pollock	11	26	0.423
N Kapil Dev	15	36	0.417
DPMD Jayawardene	17	42	0.405
MJ Clarke	18	45	0.4
WM Woodfull	12	30	0.4

Some other New Zealand names on the list are Fleming, 0.298; Vettori 0.214 and Howarth 0.212.

It is still very early days, but this New Zealand team under Brendon McCullum are starting to show some real promise.

Why I Love "The Boring Middle Overs"

Possibly not the most balanced field in an ODI.

In a couple of days, New Zealand and South Africa will play an ODI in Paarl.  And the press box will be almost empty.  There was close to 60 people in the press box just down the road at Newlands for the test match. Admittedly quite a few of them weren’t actually press, but just people who managed to get a pass in order to get a good seat some free food, and internet access to block up the lines for the people who actually needed it, but there were still a significant number of writers there, hunting out stories about the epic mismatch. In Paarl there is likely to be less than 10 actual journalists.

Part of that is because there is the African Cup of Nations on at the same time, and some of the newspapers and agencies only have so much budget to cover sport.  Paarl is a long way away from Potchefstroom and Kimberly, where the other two matches are.  A number of the writers are going to watch the first match on TV in Johannesburg and then drive to the other two matches. Others are not going to go to any of the matches, watching instead on television.

But as much as budget is a reason, so is the fact that most of them don’t actually like one-day cricket.  Some of them like tests and t20’s, some of them just like tests, and some of them don’t really like cricket at all, they just like how many stories there are in a cricket match.

I hear people saying things like “there’s those horrible overs between over 10 and over 40” and “it’s dreadful, killing the game.” Both of these sentiments make me wonder if they actually like cricket at all.  Because for me the middle overs of an ODI are almost as pure as cricket gets. When I said that to some South African cricket writers over dinner they looked at me as if I was crazy.  One of them actually suggested getting me professional help.  However, let me explain why I love the middle overs.

Part of it probably stems from growing up in New Zealand in the 80’s and 90’s.  The first cricket game I went to by myself was during the Cricket World Cup in 1992, where dibbly-dobbly bowling almost took New Zealand to the title. I also played as a spin bowler who often didn’t spin the ball much, and relied on variations in flight, pace and bounce to get wickets.  However I think my love of ODI cricket, and the middle overs in particular are more than just nostalgia.

Cricket is more than a simple bat and ball game that involves hitting a ball as far as you can.  The subtlety is what makes cricket a better game (in my opinion) than baseball, softball, rounders or any other similar game.  Cricket is, at its core, a game of risk vs reward decision-making. Most batsmen are capable of scoring at close to 2 runs a ball, for a while.  The problem is that when they try that it is very risky.  They tend to get out quite quickly if they aim to go at 2 a ball. So they find ways to reduce that risk. Instead of trying to hit the ball over mid off, they try and place it past him along the ground.  Instead of trying to hit the ball over the covers for 4, they push it down to third man for a single, or leave it alone.

A defensive shot is pure foolishness in baseball, it’s booed and jeered in kilikiti but it has merit in cricket. Even the most attacking players have a balance between attack and defence. But pure defence is only occasionally called for. Different game states call for different mindsets from the batsmen.  But not just the batsmen.  The bowlers and captains also have to make decisions about how attacking/defensively they play.

A out-swing bowler is most likely to get wickets if they bowl half volleys.  The only problem with this is that they are also likely to get hit for four if they do that.  There are times when they are prepared to roll the dice and try, but it’s risky.  So they weigh risk and reward, and tend to only bowl half volleys occasionally (or at least they intend not to bowl them). Likewise a spin bowler is more likely to take wickets with a slow, flighted delivery, that's full enough to bring a batsman forward, but short enough to turn.  However if he bowls that ball too often the batsman is likely to step out of his crease and deposit him over the straight boundary. Accordingly the spin bowler mixes up their flight, pace and line (and sometimes spin direction) to keep the batsman tied down.

A captain has a lot of options when it comes to setting a field, even within the ODI rules about field placement. There are 16 main zones where a batsman scores runs, and 9 fielders.  Accordingly the art to setting a defensive field is often damage limitation. However a good captain and bowler will work together to make sure the easiest runs have an element of danger to them. For example, a captain will set a deep point to an off-spinner, and leave a gap for a batsman to score a single there.  However to do that requires hitting against the spin, and if the ball bounces a little more, or turns a little more, there’s a chance that playing the ball out to that man will result in an edge.

Likewise a popular tactic is for a left arm spinner to come round the wicket and bowl on leg stump, with a field set in close on the off side, and (other than one player) deep on the leg side.  A batsman can score a single off most deliveries without much risk, but to try and score more is a significant risk. And if he misjudges slightly he is at risk of creating a run out, where the man at (normally) shortish mid-wicket can field the ball and throw down the stumps.  That has become a position for some of the best fielders in world cricket.  Previously the likes of Ponting, Rhodes and Harris fielded at backward point, now Guptill, Gibbs and Warner can often be seen in at shortish mid-wicket.

This balance, and battle of wits between batsman and fielders is most on display during the middle overs of an ODI.  There are what Gary Naylor of 99.94 and testmatchsofa brilliantly described as “agreed singles” where both teams are happy with a single off a delivery, and these can be frustrating, but not if you watch what the bowler is trying to do.  A bowler like Andrew Symonds or Chris Harris would often leave mid off back, apparently gifting the batsman an easy single, but then they would back themselves to save any ball hit there.  When watching this period I ask myself what the plan is to try and get a wicket without taking a risk. What is the shot that the captain is letting the batsman have, and what’s the risk for him in that?  These are the questions that make the middle overs enjoyable.

Sure there are less fours, sixes and wickets.  However there is still the battle of wits.  I’m not sure what the attraction is in watching big hit after big hit.  I prefer the balance between the mental and physical battle that only cricket really provides.  And, for me, there’s nowhere better for that than the “boring middle overs.”

Mini-session Analysis 1st Test, Australia vs Sri Lanka, Hobart 2012/13

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the first test between Australia and Sri Lanka at Bellerive Oval, Hobart, Australia

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	Australia 49/1 off 14	Australia
1-1b	Australia 48/1 off 12.2	Australia
1-2a	Australia 39/0 off 15.4	Australia
1-2b	Australia 57/1 off 15	Australia
1-3a	Australia 43/1 off 16	Sri Lanka
1-3b	Australia 63/0 off 17	Australia
2-1a	Australia 27/1 off 12	Sri Lanka
2-1b	Australia 38/0 off 12	Australia
2-2a	Australia 65/0 off 14	Australia
2-2b	Australia 21/0 off 3	draw
	Sri Lanka 21/0 off 7
2-3a	Sri Lanka 24/2 off 10	Australia
2-3b	Sri Lanka 42/2 off 12.1	Australia
3-1a	Sri Lanka 70/0 off 17.5	Sri Lanka
3-1b	Sri Lanka 30/0 off 9	Sri Lanka
3-2a	Sri Lanka 31/0 off 19	draw
3-2b	Sri Lanka 31/1 off 15	Australia
3-3a	Sri Lanka 67/2 off 15.4	Sri Lanka
3-3b	Sri Lanka 20/3 off 3.5	draw
	Australia 27/0 off 14
4-1a	Australia 60/0 off 18	Australia
4-1b	Australia 59/2 off 17	Sri Lanka
4-2a	Australia 63/3 off 14	Sri Lanka
4-2b	Australia 69/4 off 10.5	Australia
4-3a	Sri Lanka 37/1 off 18	Australia
4-3b	Sri Lanka 28/1 off 19	Australia
5-1a	Sri Lanka 45/0 off 17	Sri Lanka
5-1b	Sri Lanka 34/1 off 16	Australia
5-2a	Sri Lanka 25/1 off 14.2	Australia
5-2b	Sri Lanka 17/0 off 9.4	draw
5-3a	Sri Lanka 62/4 off 21	Australia
5-3b	Sri Lanka 7/2 off 4.2	Australia

Final update, click here

Australia win the mini-session count 18 - 8

First drinks, Day 1: Australia lead the mini-session count 1-0

A perfect first hour of a test. The batsmen have struggled at times, and have thrived. The ball swung, and did a bit off the seam, but the bad ball was generally put away. Cowan fell victim to some clever captaincy, where Mahela got into his head by leaving a massive gap for him on the leg side. He was dismissed trying to hit a ball into that gap that should have probably been cut instead.

Lunch, Day 1: Australia lead the mini-session count 2-0

That was a fine test fifty from David Warner, ended with an unfortunate run out. It has been a good first session of cricket. Sri Lanka have generally bowled demanding lines and lengths, and the batsmen have been generally patient. There was one small scare for Australia when Warner edged a good ball from Welegedara through the recently vacated third slip, but other than that the pitch looked quite friendly for the batsmen.

Middle drinks, Day 1: Australia lead the mini-session count 3-0

Australia are doing well here. They have seen off the new ball, and are playing sensible, low risk cricket. Sri Lanka need a breakthrough or else this game is capable of getting away from them very quickly.

Tea, Day 1: Australia lead the mini-session count 4-0

Australia just won that hour, but it was close. Sri Lanka have taken a wicket off a no ball. That is really the ultimate sin. They have now bowled 9 no balls in 2 sessions of cricket. To put that in context, they bowed 5 no balls in the entire series against New Zealand. It makes me wonder if the harder ground in Australia causes the bowlers to spring forward more in their run up.

Final drinks, Day 1: Australia lead the mini-session count 4-1

Sri Lanka just keep chipping away the wickets. They will now be looking forward to the new ball. If they can pick up another one by then, things could really start to get interesting. A good innings from Hughes, he certainly proved me wrong, because I expected Kulasekera to really trouble him.

Stumps, Day 1: Australia lead the mini-session count 5-1

Clarke and Hussey are just in devastating form at the moment. Their average partnership so far this year is 107.9, having put on 1187 runs together in 2012. That's the second highest contribution in a calendar year by one non-opening partnership ever. And they still have a potential 3 innings left this year. They are still 343 runs away from Younis Khan and Mohammed Younis in 2006, but catching them is a distinct possibility now.

First drinks, Day 2: Australia lead the mini-session count 5-2

Shaminda Eranga bowled a magic delivery to dismiss Michael Clarke. He came wider on the crease and angled in towards Clarke's off stump. Then the ball moved away off the pitch, and Clarke was possibly the only batsman in the world good enough to actually hit that one. The Australians managed to rebuild well, but the wicket was such an important one that the hour goes to Sri Lanka.

Lunch, Day 2: Australia lead the mini-session count 6-2

A very good hour for Australia. This isn't a pitch where we are likely to see 60 runs in an hour too regularly, so 38 runs in 40 minutes represents a good return for Australia. Sri Lanka will rue the missed chance, where Randiv missed a difficult chance to catch Wade. They have now missed at least 3 chances, and they could be crucial. If Australia get to 450 on this pitch the game is effectively over for Sri Lanka.

Middle drinks, Day 2: Australia lead the mini-session count 7-2

Another missed chance for Sri Lanka. They may be good enough to take 20 wickets cheaply against Australia. However I'm not sure if they can take 24 or 25 wickets cheaply against Australia.

Tea, Day 2: Australia lead the mini-session count 7-2

While Australia scored much faster than Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankans managed to survive the first bite of the new ball. Often the ball plays tricks for the first 5 or 6 overs, then again overs 13-20. Karunaratne looked particularly impressive.

Final drinks, Day 2: Australia lead the mini-session count 8-2

Two wickets in the hour for Australia, and Sri Lanka are now in trouble. This is the innings that they really would have been targeting to score their runs in.

Stumps, Day 2: Australia lead the mini-session count 9-2

Sri Lanka are in trouble here. They will need a very good day tomorrow to avoid this match ending very badly for them. They still have two solid batsmen left with Mathews and Jayawardene, but they don't have much room for error left. While Sri Lanka won the first 3 overs of the day, the rest of the day was very much Australia's.

First drinks, Day 3: Australia lead the mini-session count 9-3

What a fantastic fight back from Mathews and Dilshan. They need to keep this going for another couple of hours, but they have scored quickly, and put pressure on the bowlers.

Lunch, Day 3: Australia lead the mini-session count 9-4

Dilshan is scoring beautifully. He's brought up his hundred and is looking sharp. Matthews seems to have gone into his shell. He's scored only 10 runs in the last 9 overs.

Middle drinks, Day 3: Australia lead the mini-session count 9-4

Mathews has continued to stagnate. After his solid start he has not really looked likely at all. He's scored only 11 runs in the last 19 overs. For Australia the real bright light with the ball has been Shane Watson. He has kept the batsmen under pressure, and in two minds. While he is at the crease the pitch looks like a minefield.

Tea, Day 3: Australia lead the mini-session count 10-4

Mathews fell to a ball that moved off the seam. This pitch is starting to play some tricks. Dilshan has taken a turn going into his shell now. This time he has scored only 11 runs in 15 overs. Australia have replicated what Sri Lanka did on the first day: kept the scoring down despite not making much progress against the batting.

Final drinks, Day 3: Australia lead the mini-session count 10-5

Good positive play by Prasana Jayawardene has advanced the game in Sri Lanka's favour. They are still behind, but they are getting closer.

Stumps, Day 3: Australia lead the mini-session count 10-5

Australia cleaned up the tail, and their openers managed to survive, but they didn't score many runs, and despite having a chance to start to build an imposing lead, they batted without much intent, and let the game slide somewhat.

There are a couple of possible scenarios for the game tomorrow. One option is that Australia go on to score about 250, then bowl Sri Lanka out on a wearing pitch. However another option is that they take too long to get their 250, and Sri Lanka bat out the final day to draw the test.

First drinks, Day 4: Australia lead the mini-session count 11-5

Great work this morning from Cowan and Warner. This would be one of the most restrained innings I've seen from Warner, similar to his second innings at Hobart last year. Sri Lanka are bowling quite well, and are trying to keep the Australians tied up. Clarke is an aggressive captain, but he will be aware of the power of the Sri Lankan line up, and is likely to make sure they are chasing well over 350.

Lunch, Day 4: Australia lead the mini-session count 11-6

That was a good hour of cricket. Wickets, runs, both teams playing positive cricket.

Middle drinks, Day 4: Australia lead the mini-session count 11-7

Herath looks like a completely different bowler once he has a right-hander to bowl at. The Watson dismissal was a classic orthodox spin wicket. He drew Watson out with the pace, deceived him with the flight and dip, spun past the outstretched bat, and then Jayawardene produced a very sharp stumping. It was almost poetry.

Tea, Day 4: Australia lead the mini-session count 12-7

If Herath can do that against Australia on a pitch that isn't taking turn, what will he do on the SCG? Australia have set Sri Lanka a target of 392. It's an unlikely target, but not an impossible one. Sri Lanka will have to bat well, but they have 5 phenomenal batsmen in their team. Only South Africa at the moment have a reasonable claim to having a better batting line up.

Final drinks, Day 4: Australia lead the mini-session count 13-7

The pitch is starting to look quite tricky to bat on. It looks positively unplayable while Shane Watson is bowling. Some bowlers know how to get the worst out of a pitch, and Watson is certainly one of those.

Stumps, Day 4: Australia lead the mini-session count 14-7

While Sri Lanka have made it to the end of the day only 2 down, Australia are now odds on to win this match. The pitch is quite up and down, and even a good go with the heavy roller in the morning isn't going to make much difference. There is one thing that could make it a lot easier for Sri Lanka, and that is that there is rain forecast for tomorrow. However there's probably not enough rain tomorrow to actually make much of a difference.

First drinks, Day 5: Australia lead the mini-session count 14-8

A very good hour for Sri Lanka. If they have 5 more like that they will win the test. However there were some promising signs for Australia, They managed to get some reverse swing, and drew one false shot out of Jayawardene.

Lunch, Day 5: Australia lead the mini-session count 15-8

The Australian bowlers really dominated that last hour. The key moment was the hopefull review by Sangakkara that turned out to be a good decision. Another interesting thing was the way that the Australian fielders made a point of walking between Sangakkara and Samaraweera whenever they tried to have a chat. I'm not sure what the thinking behind that behaviour was, but perhaps they feel Samaraweera is a little weak mentally, and relies heavily on his batting partner. If that's their tactic, then I think they've done their scouting badly, because Samaraweera is about as tough as they come mentally.

Rain break, Day 5: Australia lead the mini-session count 16-8

Sri Lanka are fighting hard, but Australia are gradually taking the game. These two and Prasanna Jayawardene are quality batsmen, but the pitch is playing too many tricks to expect them to last until stumps.

Tea, Day 5: Australia lead the mini-session count 16-8

Great effort from Mathews and Samaraweera. They have mostly seen off the new ball despite things being really quite difficult. The bounce has been eratic, and they have had their concentration interrupted by rain breaks. Australia are probably still favourites, but I think the draw is starting to look a lot more likely.

Final drinks, Day 5: Australia lead the mini-session count 17-8

Surely Australia can't fail to wrap this up. Could they?

End of match Australia win the match and the mini-session count 18-8

The end had a certain inevitability about it. Sri Lanka fought well, but Australia win the match. Australia played the better cricket and deserved the win. Peter Siddle in man of the match, and he was a fantastic performer, but I think this game was mostly won because Michael Clarke made such a bold declaration at the end of the first innings. He was my man of the match for that.

A Statistician's Look at New Zealand Cricket

I’m really a statistics writer. I’m not the first call for any pieces about management styles, off the field behaviour and so on. When I write about cricket I generally write about what happens on the park, and particularly about the results, and what can be found from analysis. However the current situation in New Zealand Cricket is one that is fascinating to me. The current “crisis” seems to be one that has been misunderstood, misreported, over-estimated and entirely avoidable. So I thought I’d take a statistical enquiry type approach to the current situation, and see what came of it.

The statistical enquiry cycle has 5 parts: Problem, Plan, Data, Analysis and Conclusion.

Problem: Why is there an environment in NZC where a breakdown between captain and coach can have catastrophic consequences and be played out in the public domain as appallingly as this one has.

Plan: Look back over the last 6 years of New Zealand Cricket’s history and see if there is a pattern, and anything that might be the reason:

Data: In a statistical enquiry this is where I gather the numbers. Obviously that’s not so relevant in this situation. So instead I went through just over 4000 articles in three different news archives that related to New Zealand Cricket. Here is a time-line of some of the significant events in New Zealand Cricket over the last 6 years. I’ve broken it up into Governance, Management, Leadership and Players; but some of the issues related to more than one category, so they could have fit across more than one. In these situations I picked what I felt was the most appropriate.

Date	Governance	Management	Leadership	Players
Jan-2006				Cairns retires
June-2006		Snedden announces 5 year test plan. Incuded 2 tests in 18 months.
July-2006			Andy Moles appointed as ND coach
Sept-2006	Don Neely replaces John Reid as president of NZC
Dec-2006		Snedden steps down	Dayle Hadlee appointed bowling coach
Jan-2007				Astle retires
Apr-2007				Fleming retires as ODI captain
June-2007		Justin Vaughan appointed new CEO. Forms committee to look at Bracewell’s position as coach. Includes Ric Charlesworth	Wright turns down Australian academy, expresses interest in working with NZ cricket.
July-2007			Bracewell re-appointed for 2 more years. Mark O’Neill new bating coach. Wright to have a (largely unspecified) role. Bracewell loses veto over selectors
Aug-2007	Heath Mills expresses concern about the newly mooted ICL. Asks NZC to talk with ICC about it.		Nash, Turner, Hadlee and Bracewell all re-appointed as selectors. Haslee and Nash given 1 year contracts, Turner and Bracewell 2 year contracts	Bracewell drops Fleming from t20’s. appoints Vettori captain
Sept-2007				Vettori given test captaincy. Fleming says he will stay on.
				Cairns, Harris, Astle and H Marshall all sign for ICL
Oct-2007			Ric Charlesworth quits as high performance manager	Craig McMillan retires
				B McCullum made vice captain
Nov-2007			Wright appointed high performance manager	Andre Adams makes himself unavailable for ODIs
Dec-2007		Richard Hadlee initially left off guest list for Chappell-Hadlee fixture.
Jan-2008				Bond signs with ICL
Feb-2008		Vaughan allows Auckland to play James Anderson, despite opposition from other asociations.		Fleming retires
				Ryder incident in bar
				Lou Vincent & Adam Parore join ICL
May-2008			Bracewell announces he will quit April 2009	Andre Adams becomes a Kolpak player
June-2008		Major changes in the organisation at NZC. 11 positions removed and 20 created. John Wright and Lindsay Crocker’s jobs both disestablished
July-2008			Dermot Reeve appointed coach of CD
Aug-2008		A number of staff leave NZC – Alec Astle, Dayle Hadlee, Dayle Shackel, Warren Frost, Brian Aldridge	Bob Carter appointed Canterbury coach
Sept-2008	Alan Isaac replaces Sir John Anderson as chairman of NZC board after Anderson retires.
Nov-2008		Geoff Allott appointed general manager of cricket.	Andy Moles appointed coach
		NZC apologises to West Indies for “it’s all white here” slogan
Dec-2008			Mark Greatbatch appointed as advisor to national selection panel
Jan-2009			Heath Mills criticizes selectors for not communicating with players when they are dropped.
Feb-2009			Dave Currie appointed manager
			Mark O’Donnell appointed assistant coach
Apr-2009			Moles asks to become a selector.
June-2009		State Insurance pull out as sponsor		Bond becomes available after ending ties with ICL
Aug-2009			Moles and Vettori added to selection panel, replacing Nash
Oct-2009		First Class competition moves to home and away format.	22 – reports players unhappy with Moles	McCullum loses vice captaincy
			23- Vettori gives some support to Moles
			24- Moles quits.
Nov-2009		Name of first class comp returns to Plunket Shield	John Wright to assist Vettori with national team
Jan-2010			Greatbatch appointed coach	Taylor named “stand-by captain”
Feb-2010		NZC announce partnership with USACA. Schedule matches in Florida	Martin Crowe appointed “batting advisor”
Mar-2010	NZC agrees to nominate John Howard, rather than original pick, Sir John Anderson as new ICC president.	NZ pull out of Zimbabwe series
May-2010			Roger Mortimer joins as performance director.
June-2010	John Howard rejected as ICC president			McCullum gives up keeping in tests.
Aug-2010	Alan Isaac appointed as ICC vice-president. Chris Moller takes over as NZC chairman		Shane Bond assistant coach at CD
			Trent Woodhill appointed as assistant coach
Oct-2010	Robbie Hart appointed to board
	Board calls for sweeping review post Bangladesh clean-sweep
Nov-2010		Geoff Allott resigns.	Duncan Fletcher comes in temporarily as consultant
Dec-2010	Bond, Martin Crowe and Gerard Gillespie bought into cricket committee.	Another deal with USACA	John Wright replaces Mark Greatbatch as coach. Vettori loses selector role.
Jan-2011			Alan Donald joins as bowling coach
Mar-2011				Vettori retires from T20i
Apr-2011	Crowe quits cricket comittee		Buchanan appointed director of cricket.
June-2011			Donald quits as bowling coach	Players consulted on the leadership qualities of Taylor and McCullum
			National selection managers role introduced, given to Greatbatch temporarily	Taylor appointed as captain, after rigorous process
			Trent Woodhill reappointed	Vettori quits ODIs
July-2011			Hesson appointed Kenyan coach
			Damian Wright appointed bowling coach
			Mike Sandle appointed manager
Sept-2011		Vaughan steps down as CEO	Kim Littlejohn appointed national selection manager
Dec-2011		David White appointed CEO
Mar-2012				Ryder & Bracewell dropped for breaking protocol
				Ryder takes indefinite break from cricket
Apr-2012		NZC signs 8 year media deal		ICC rule Wagner eligible for NZ
May-2012		Therese Walsh comes onboard to run NZC’s part of the 2015 World Cup	John Wright turns down a new contract with NZC
July-2012			Mike Hesson named as new coach	Williamson named interim captain while Taylor injured and McCullum rested
				Ryder makes himself eligible for Wellington
Aug-2012			Bob Carter appointed as assistant coach
			Damian Wright steps down as bowling coach
Sept-2012	Review of the board completed. 39 recommendations were made, and published.	Friday night TV deal announced.
Nov-2012	Stephen Boock named NZC president, Greg Barclay appointed as director		Turner and Crowe appointed talent scouts	Hesson approaches Taylor with Sandle and Carter, tells him that he is going to recommend a leadership change to the board after the tour.
Dec-2012	Chris Moller announces a special general meeting to look at a new constitution for New Zealand cricket.			McCullum appointed captain. Taylor rejects offer of split captaincy, steps down from South Africa tour.

Analysis: This is where I normally do some calculations, arrange the data into a nice table, and perhaps draw a graph. None of those things work here, so instead I’ve looked at some of the trends in the stories.

The one constant in New Zealand cricket over the past 6 years has been change. During that time the team has had 5 coaches, at least 11 selectors and at least 16 assistant or specialist coaches. There has been a litany of job titles for people too. General manager of cricket, chairman of selectors, convenor of selectors, national selection manager, high performance manager, performance director, director of cricket selection advisor, batting advisor etc. There have also been 6 captains for the international team (although Kane Williamson was only as an injury replacement and Jamie How was only for a tour match)

There have been a number of quite significant changes in the power balance between the captain and the coach. First there was a confrontation between Bracewell and Fleming. Then Moles and Vettori. Then Hesson and Taylor. The role of the captain has changed a number of times. Vettori was a selector, and for a while was actually the coach as well (although that was only for about 2 weeks while the team was between coaches). However this is not an issue that is limited to New Zealand cricket. There were similar issues in Australia between Warne and Buchanan and most spectacularly in England between Pietersen, Flintoff and a range of coaches.

An interesting story came out in 2009 where Richard Hadlee felt that Fleming had downgraded the role of coach in New Zealand. That balance in power has certainly been an issue.

Likewise there was an issue with player power in Central Districts while Dermot Reeve was coach, and almost one in Auckland not long after Paul Strang took over. In that situation Auckland Cricket acted quickly, brought in someone extra to help sort out the communication and define the roles between the senior players and the coach.

Conclusion: This is not the first time that there has been a power issue between coach and captain in New Zealand Cricket, or in international cricket in general. It is something that has been bubbling under the surface for a while. New Zealand Cricket probably need to do what Auckland did: bring in someone who is respected by both the coaches and the players, get them to work with both groups to define clearly the roles and expectations of the coach and captain. And then stick with it.

There have been so many changes in New Zealand Cricket over the past 6 years, that consistency is probably better than making more changes. However the roles need to be more clearly defined, and there needs to be a third person introduced to make sure that the two are working together correctly. That person may be the manager, or the director of cricket or someone else, but whoever it is needs to get involved before this happens a fourth time.

Mini-session Analysis 1st test Aus SA Gabba 2012/13

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the first test between Australia and South Africa at the 'Gabba, Brisbane, Australia.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

Mini-Session	Score	Winner
1-1a	South Africa 36/1 off 13	Australia
1-1b	South Africa 54/0 off 14	South Africa
1-2a	South Africa 35/1 off 13	Australia
1-2b	South Africa 61/0 off 15	South Africa
1-3a	South Africa 49/0 off 19	South Africa
1-3b	South Africa 20/0 off 8	South Africa
3-1a	South Africa 61/1 off 21	draw
3-1b	South Africa 41/0 off 17	South Africa
3-2a	South Africa 43/2 off 15	Australia
3-2b	South Africa 34/2 off 13	Australia
3-3a	South Africa 16/3 off 3.4	South Africa
	Australia 55/3 off 15
3-3b	Australia 56/0 off 11	Australia
4-1a	Australia 46/0 off 17	Australia
4-1b	Australia 57/0 off 17	Australia
4-2a	Australia 50/0 off 14	Australia
4-2b	Australia 42/1 off 13	draw
4-3a	Australia 78/0 off 15	Australia
4-3b	Australia 103/0 off 19	Australia
5-1a	Australia 78/1 off 17	Australia
5-1b	South Africa 31/1 off 13	Australia
5-2a	South Africa 34/1 off 12	Australia
5-2b	South Africa 49/1 off 13	South Africa
5-3a	South Africa 51/2 off 30	Australia

Latest update click here.

Lunch, Day 1: The mini-session count is tied 1-1.

In a interesting set of decisions, South Africa chose 4 quicks, and then on winning the toss decided to bat first. Their decision seemed to be justified, however, when at lunch the score was 90/1.

The key moments of this session had been two referrals. Firstly the incorrect referral with Hilfenhaus against Smith, where a catch down the leg side was turned down, then the upheld referral of the lbw shout against Smith.

The other interesting thing was the decision of Clarke to bring on Nathan Lyon early on. Amla hit him for a 6 in his third over, and in a move that captains all over the world will agree with, and spinners all round the world will disagree with, Clarke pulled him off immediately. If he's going to encourage the batsmen to have a go, then he's certainly worth persisting with so early in a test.

Tea, Day 1: The mini-session count is tied 2-2.

Australia again put on the pressure in the first hour, but then South Africa dominated the end of the session. The domination was sufficient that Clarke even turned to Rob Quiney to try and make a breakthrough. The ball did appear to be reversing at the end of the session, although reverse swing with the Kookaburra doesn't seem to be as dangerous as it is with the SG or Duke balls.

Post-Tea drinks, Day 1: South Africa lead the mini-session count 3-2.

A wicket off a no ball and a dropped catch could have made this Australia's hour. However it ended up being South Africa's hour. Again the first hour after the break was quite placid in the context of the game. South Africa scored at about 2.6 rpo, while they have scored at about 4 an over in the second hour of each session. It will be interesting to see if they do the same thing in this hour. The new ball is the due soon, and that may bring more runs, but these two batsmen are also likely to just wait out the first few overs with the new ball.

Stumps, Day 1: South Africa lead the mini-session count 4-2.

The new ball only featured in as much as it ended the day's play. Amla and Kallis became the most prolific partnership for South Africa, moving past Kirsten and Kallis. This is starting to look ominous for Australia here. This could become a very large score, very quickly. However Australia will know that the forecast is for tomorrow to be overcast, and with a new ball Pattinson, Siddle and Hilfenhaus could cause mayhem.

It was South Africa's day, but there is still a lot of cricket left in this match.

First drinks, Day 3: South Africa lead the mini-session count 4-2.

Australia made the breakthrough, but the South Africans have mostly seen off the new ball. The Australians have continued to bowl quite short to Kallis, but seem to have a plan of bowling a bit fuller to de Villiers. The one wicket that did fall, Amla, was to an LBW that looked a bit high. However I think teams are often too quick to review lbws, as often they end up umpires call.

Lunch, Day 3: South Africa lead the mini-session count 5-2.

South Africa are looking relentless. They look like they are going to try and bat only once. That's a big task, but de Villiers looks even more composed than Amla did. The loss of Duminy has been assuaged by the way that the first 5 have batted. He may still be missed with the ball, but his role with the bat is starting to look like it could be somewhat redundant.

Middle drinks, Day 3: South Africa lead the mini-session count 5-3.

It's amazing what 2 wickets can do. Both set batsmen out, and while South Africa are still clearly leading, Australia are back in the match. The key to this hour was a spell of 5-0-13-2 from James Pattinson.

Tea, Day 3: South Africa lead the mini-session count 5-4.

Australia have had a couple of victories in this session, but are still well behind in the match. It does feel a little like the first test between England and South Africa earlier this year, two top order batsmen batting for a long time, then the rest of the players falling reasonably quickly, but scoring quite well.

Stumps, Day 3: South Africa lead the mini-session count 6-5.

This game has advanced quite quickly from lunch. 10 wickets and 204 runs in 4 hours is some high speed cricket.

Ed Cowan obviously enjoyed seeing Kallis bat at about 1.5 times his normal strike rate, and came out swinging. Or at least scoring much quicker than we are used to. It was a good counter attack from Cowan and Clarke, after Australia looked in a lot of trouble at 40/3. The match is poised for a potentially absorbing finish.

If Australia get past the follow on target (which I assume is 250, as it was the second day that was lost, not the first) South Africa will be in an interesting position. They will potentially have to set a target. Graeme Smith has not got a reputation as a particularly enterprising captain, so he's unlikely to set the bar too low, but knowing this, Clarke may declare early, to put extra pressure on Smith. If Australia pass the target just after lunch tomorrow, and declare immediately, Smith will have a difficult job knowing what to do. It's this sort of scenario that makes me love test cricket.

Tea, Day 5: Australia lead the mini-session count 13-7.

While I was off on umpiring duties Australia have taken the game back. Michael Clarke made it past 50 for the 4th time this year. He also made it to 200 for the third time this year. In only 11 innings.

James Pattinson showed us just how good he was, but ultimately it looks like Australia will be robbed by the rain.

They still have a chance, but it will require something magic from here to win it. I was critical when I heard that Clarke had chosen not to declare behind, but on reflection he made more of a statement by his treatment of the South African bowlers. The question will be if he has given himself enough time.

Stumps, Day 5: Australia win the mini-session count 14-7.

Nobody has won anything in this test, and yet Australia take a huge psychological advantage into the second match. To give South Africa matches in Brisbane and Perth, and give Melbourne and Sydney to Sri Lanka seemed to be an act of extreme confidence from Australia. However they have prevailed in the first trial.

South Africa will need to go back to the drawing board and re-think their bowling plans, because these ones did not work. Australia had the chance to test their revised plans in the second innings, and they made some good breakthroughs. How the South Africans respond in match two is going to be really interesting.

Comparing Sammy with others

On Twitter I got asked to provide a comparison of Sammy to other prominent captains.

He is more defensive of boundaries than any of the captains that I looked at.

Captain	Boundary runs	Run runs	Extra boundary runs (%)
v Vettori	139	114	21.9
v Fleming	134	112	19.6
v Cronje	116	97	19.6
v G Smith	142	119	19.3
v Inzamam	146	125	16.8
v S Waugh	130	115	13
v Vaughan	141	125	12.8
v Ganguly	132	119	10.9
v Strauss	135	124	8.9
v Ponting	132	126	4.8
v A Flower	106	104	1.9
v Clarke	124	125	-0.8
v Jayawardene	124	131	-5.3
v M Crowe	117	125	-6.4
v MS Dhoni	125	142	-12
v Hooper	105	121	-13.2
v Saleem Malik	117	137	-14.6
v Sangakkara	128	152	-15.8
v Sammy	113	145	-22.1

I think if Sammy wants to achieve the success that his supporters demand, he needs to make some changes to how he sets a field. To do this is not going to be easy, as it involves actually changing how he thinks about the game.

Captain Sammy

I believe that Darren Sammy could be the best captain in world cricket.

I don't believe, however that he is yet.

As far as I can see there are three things that are required to be a good captain. The first thing is someone who can bring out the best in his players. The bowlers will bowl better and the batsmen bat better with a good captain who is setting good batting/bowling plans. The second thing is good decisions as to when to change his bowlers and when to declare. A captain that does this well can create extra pressure for his opponents and really make a difference to the flow of the match. The third thing that a captain needs to do is set good fields. This is an incredibly difficult art as there are a number of things to think about.

I believe that this is the area that Sammy needs to work on.

Over the time that he has been captain, he has managed to get most of his bowlers bowling better and his batsmen batting better.

Of the 6 batsmen who played a significant number of innings both with and without Sammy as captain, 4 have averaged better under his captaincy. Most of them quite significantly better.

Of the 8 bowlers who bowled both with and without Sammy as captain 6 have a better average with Sammy than they had previously.

He is clearly good at getting the best out of his players.

I have also enjoyed his bowling changes and decisions regarding declarations etc. It's very difficult to measure the ability of a captain at this, but he seems to do this well, exemplified especially by the pressure he put on Australia in the recent series.

The field settings however are a different story.

There are a number of things that a captain needs to balance out. One of these is how many fielders are in attacking positions, how many are saving singles and how many are saving boundaries. Another is what parts of the field need special protection, and where a batsman is likely to give up an opportunity. There needs to be a combination of homework, observation, psychology, intuition and good luck in setting a good field.

One key part of setting a field is playing with the head of the batsman. Stephen Fleming was a master at this. He knew what a batsman's favoutite shot was, and put 4 fielders there. The bowlers then made it as easy as possible for the batsmen to hit the ball in their favourite spot, but the field made it too risky. Saleem Malik was another who had a real ability to make the batsmen hit the ball where he wanted them to. It was a bit part in the success that Pakistan had under his watch. (Especially impressive considering he wasn't always wanting to win every match)

It is hard to measure statistically the field setting skills of a captain, but one thing that can be measured is how their opponents score their runs. If a team is scoring their runs in boundaries, it's likely that the field is up close. If they are scoring them by running, then it is likely that the field is set back. It's not a fool-proof assumption, but I think it is a fair one to make.

So I looked at all matches that had a result in the last 10 years, and saw if there were any patterns. I noticed that there was a difference in how the captains that won and lost conceded the runs. I've averaged the runs out to runs per 90 overs (ie. runs per day)

result	Boundary runs	Run runs	Extra boundary runs (%)
lost	144	141	2.1
won	131	115	13.9

Teams that win the match tend to have their field up more than teams that lose. This is not particularly surprising, as teams that are losing tend to set defensive fields. However the difference is more than I would have expected.

Then I looked at teams playing against Sammy.

Boundary runs	Run runs	Extra boundary runs (%)
113	145	-22.1

Sammy actually conceded less runs from boundaries than from running. He is very intent on defending boundaries, but at the expense of letting in a lot of singles. Captains that win matches only concede on average 113 run runs, but Sammy concedes on average 145 run runs.

So it appears that Sammy is too defensive of the boundary, and leaves too many singles.

But the big issue is in the 4th innings. He has had a few opportunities in recent matches to bowl teams out, and each of them he has not managed to take the vital wickets. He has actually had 7 chances to bowl at a team in the 4th innings. Here are the numbers:

result	Boundary runs	Run runs	Extra boundary runs (%)
lost	132	116	13.8
won	156	147	6.1
Sammy	107	173	-38.2

The numbers tell the story. He is so scared to concede boundaries that the fields are set well too deep.

If he can rectify this balance Sammy could be a magnificent captain. He makes good changes, gets the most out of his players, but really needs to set better fields.