Thursday 15 March 2012

Preview NZ SA 2nd Test Hamilton 11/12

Here are some things to watch for in the 2nd test.

1. The first innings is very important.

In tests at Seddon Park, the team that bats first has only lost once when they have scored more than 300, and has only won once when they have scored less than 300. The first inning is vital in Hamilton. The nature of the ground is that the first hour is very difficult, but it tends to level out. If the batsmen can get through the first couple of hours then they will be able to cash in.

2. The ball swings in the morning

Often the first hour of the day is very difficult for the batsman. The humidity means that the ball swings, and often a number of wickets fall in the first hour. (an hour before play on the first day, there is 90% humidity, and every day is forecast to be similar)

3. Attacking batsmen.

Brendan McCullum and Craig McMillan are amongst the highest run scorers at Hamilton. Despite once describing Hamilton as the hardest place to play in the world, Matthew Hayden had a good record there too. This is a ground that allows the batsmen full value for their shots during the day.

4. Will the pitch break up?

The pitch at Hamilton has been somewhat unpredictable. If there is any hot days then the pitch breaks up very quickly. However there are no hot days forecast, and so it might just get low and slow. The line up that New Zealand choose to take into the match will be likely to be based on what they think the pitch will do.

Some good bets:

McCullum 79& over. He's in good touch, and has a good record at this ground.
Nz to win $5. They probably won't win, but I'd suggest they have about a 30% chance, and $5 is much better than that.

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