Friday, 13 January 2012

Preview - Aus Ind 3rd Test Perth 11/12

The WACA.

Possibly the ground with the most intense legend surrounding it.

The bouncy track. The ball whistling past the batsman's ears. The Fremantle Doctor.

One part fact, one part fiction.

There was a time where the WACA was the fastest, bounciest and scariest pitch in the world. That title is long gone. The WACA is now a great place to be a batsman. Even the 10th wicket has an average partnership of 16 in the last 5 years. And yet every match in the last 5 years has provided a result. The runs come quickly, but so do the wickets.

There are a couple of things I am looking for in this match.

1. The team that bats first normally wins. There is a small sample size, but teams are advised to bat first. This has been a good ground for openers, and if they can survive the opening hour or so they can really pile on the runs.

2. How will Michael Clarke go? I took a sample of 300's (I didn't have time to look at them all) and looked at the next innings for each batsman. The median score was 31. Will Clarke fall below this, or will he back up with another big score. Hes scored 251 in his last 4 matches at this ground, which is not bad, but also not setting the world on fire.

3. Zaheer Khan. The most effective bowlers at the WACA recently have been left arm swing bowlers. India have an outstanding exponent of this art. He will need support, but he could be very dangerous, particularly in the second innings.

4. How will the spinners go? This ground has not been friendly for spinners, and it will be interesting to see how Lyon and Ashwin go. Both players are in doubt for the match, and it will be interesting to see if they make the line-ups and if so, how they will go.

Betting tips.

1. Player Performance Michael Clarke under 100 $1.83. I would expect the probability of him getting under 100 to be about 0.7

2. Player Performance Sachin Tendulkar 85 & over $1.83. He is hardly ever scoring under 40 at the moment. His attacking style is suited to this ground.

3. Top India bowler Zaheer Khan $3. This seems too good to be true. I was expecting Khan to be at about $2.20

4. India to win (draw no bet) $2.75. This game may end up a draw, but if not, this could be India's chance to strike back.

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