Sunday, 29 January 2012

Right players, wrong formats?

I was pleased to see that Michael Bates was picked for the New Zealand ODI and T20 teams. I was especially pleased to see that the selection manager commented that he had played well in pressure situations, mirroring my thoughts.

I was also pleased that two other Auckland players, and one former Auckland player that I have enjoyed watching: Colin de Grandhomme, Roneel Hira and Taran Nethula, were also picked. However I have some concerns about the role that de Grandhomme is likely to be asked to perform.

I'll give some background to this. I used to really enjoy watching Craig Spearman play cricket. Particularly the longer form. He had the ability to score runs, and could do it quickly, but had a good temperament and played responsibly when he needed to. Unfortunately he got branded a one day specialist, and got frustrated and left our shores for England.

He only got to play in 19 tests, and averaged about 26 in them (which is not great) but a lot of those matches were played on green-tops and of the players that played in 10 of those tests with him, only 3 averaged over 30. Craig McMillan averaged 28, so there were 4 that averaged more than him. During the same time he played 51 ODI's for an average of 18.72. This is the second lowest average of any batsman who batted more than 40 times in the top 6. Only Alok Kapali stands between him and the title of worst ODI batsman ever. He was in the top 5 in his country for tests, and played only 19, but was a terrible ODI player and played 51. Gloucestershire were not so foolish. They gave him a chance to play a lot of first class cricket, and he rewarded them scoring 19 centuries for them between 2003 and 2007, including their record score of 341.

The New Zealand selectors then repeated the dose. They picked Andre Adams as an ODI specialist also. Now it's not that Adams was a bad ODI player. A bowling average of 31 and a bowling average of 5.22, combined with a batting average of 17.45 and a strike rate over 100 suggests that he was a useful contributor. However he only got to play one test. He took 3/44 in the first innings and 3/61 in the second, helping lead New Zealand to a victory over England. For some reason he was never again selected to play a test match, and has remained with an average of 17.5. He was never selected despite having a first class average of about 23 and repeatedly taking truck loads of wickets in first class matches for Auckland and Notts. (He took the third most first class wickets in the world in 2010 and 2011, and also took more than 50 wickets in 2005, 2006 and 2007). But he was pigeon-hoed as a one day player, so he wasn't picked for any more test cricket. As a result Adams made use of his Vincentian ancestry and is now eligible for the West Indies instead of New Zealand.

The next player to have suffered this fate at the hands of the New Zealand selectors was Neil Broom. (Now they still have time to redeem this one, as he is still available for selection.) Broom is an aggressive top/middle order batsman from Otago. He has scored 10 first class hundreds in 69 matches at an average of over 40. Normally batting at number 3 or 4. As a result the selectors picked him at number 6 and 7 for a few one day matches. He has also not been picked for a test yet. He's another good player who had performed much better in first class than in limited overs cricket, and yet has only been picked in the format that he's been the least successful in.

Now the selectors have picked de Grandhomme to play in the t20's and Cantabrian Andrew Ellis to play in the ODI matches. Both are big hitting batsmen, and reasonable medium/fast medium bowlers. However de Grandhomme has been amazing in the one day matches, and good in the t20's and Ellis has been a star in the t20's, but not quite as effective in the one day matches.

Here are their results this season:

.De GrandhommeEllis
List A runs117106
List A average58.5026.50
List A strike rates121.87116.48
T20 runs156129
T20 average22.2821.50
T20 strike rates160.82186.95
List A batting effectiveness71.2930.87
T20 batting effectiveness35.8340.19
List A wickets35
List A averages32.6632.60
List A economy4.454.63
T20 wickets27
T20 averages17.0037.28
T20 economy8.508.41
List A bowling effectiveness24.2225.16
T20 bowling effectiveness24.0852.25

* de Grandhomme hardly bowled in T20 matches (only 4 overs), and as a results his averages for this form are not a good indication of his ability.

Effectiveness is runs per wicket x runs per ball. It is a good way of measuring players skills in limited overs matches.

We see that Ellis has had a worse season than de Grandhomme in the 50 over matches both with the bat and the ball, but performed better with the bat in the t20 matches than de Grandhomme and actually bowled a reasonable number of overs, rather than just filling in on occasion.

While this is a small sample, I feel that the two players are in the wrong teams. They are the right players, but if there is only room for one in each team then they have been picked in the wrong formats.

Saturday, 28 January 2012

Mini-session analysis for only Test NZ ZIM 11/12

Here is the mini-session analysis for the test between New Zealand and Zimbabwe at Napier.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

SessionScoreWinner
1-1aNew Zealand 68/0 off 14New Zealand
1-1bNew Zealand 30/0 off 14New Zealand
1-2aNew Zealand 33/2 off 12Zimbabwe
1-2bNew Zealand 63/0 off 16New Zealand
1-3aNew Zealand 56/2 off 14Zimbabwe
1-3bNew Zealand 81/1 off 21New Zealand
2-1aNew Zealand 53/0 off 14New Zealand
2-1bNew Zealand 8/0 off 1.2-
3-1aNew Zealand 94/2 off 18.2New Zealand
3-1bZimbabwe 20/5 off 15New Zealand
3-2aZimbabwe 30/3 off 13New Zealand
3-2bZimbabwe 13/5 off 10New Zealand
3-3aZimbabwe 51/3 off 14New Zealand
3-3bZimbabwe 80/4 off 25.3New Zealand


New Zealand win the match by an innings and 301 runs, and the mini-session count 11-2. I didn't award either team a mini-session for the 8 deliveries in 2-1b. I also awarded Zimbabwe 1-3a. That mini-session was right on the border, and fell on NZ's side in my normal formula by 1 run, however I felt that Zimbabwe slightly edged it.

Zimbabwe's tail wagged well today, but their top order was appalling twice. Both innings their final 5 wickets provided more than their first 5. Chris Martin looks like he is well in form. Pity for him that it is the only test in the series.

Friday, 27 January 2012

Mini-session analysis for 2nd Test Pak Eng 11/12

Here is the mini-session analysis for the 2nd test between Pakistan and England in Abu Dhabi. I will be updating this from time to time throughout the match. (It is not in a good timezone for me to do it regularly)

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

SessionScoreWinner
1-1aPakistan 41/0 off 15Pakistan
1-1bPakistan 32/2 off 16England
1-2aPakistan 47/2 off 17England
1-2bPakistan 57/0 off 17Pakistan
1-3aPakistan 27/1 off 15England
1-3bPakistan 52/2 off 14England
2-1aPakistan 1/3 off 2.4England
England 25/0 off 12
2-1bEngland 23/1 off 12Pakistan
2-2aEngland 48/0 off 13England
2-2bEngland 36/0 off 17England
2-3aEngland 42/1 off 17Pakistan
2-3bEngland 31/3 off 16.5Pakistan
3-1aEngland 53/1 off 14.1England
3-1bEngland 63/2 off 12Pakistan
3-2aEngland 4/2 off 1Pakistan
Pakistan 29/1 off 11.4
3-2bPakistan 25/2 off 15.2England
3-3aPakistan 36/1 off 18England
3-3bPakistan 35/0 off 16Pakistan
4-1aPakistan 37/1 off 18England
4-1bPakistan 36/2 off 13England
4-2aPakistan 16/3 off 7.2England
4-2bEngland 39/4 off 22Pakistan
4-3aEngland 32/4 off 13.4Pakistan
4-3bEngland 1/2 off 0.3Pakistan


Pakistan win the match, despite England winning the count 13-11.

Finally a good test match. A disappointing ending, it would have been great if England could have put together one more partnership and really taken it to the wire.

Wednesday, 25 January 2012

Preview - Pak Eng 2nd Test Abu Dhabi 11/12

The first test was a big surprise.

I was honestly surprised by how well Hafeez batted, and how poorly England batted.

The big question now is if it was an aberration or a forming trend. England looked horrible in the ODI matches in India, but they often look horrible in ODI matches. This is because they are an awful ODI team. But perhaps it had something to do with being in Asia.

The English overall record in Asia over the past 5 years looks respectable, about 33. However once you remove Bangladesh from that equation, their average drops to 26.68.

Over the same time Pakistan have averaged 36.

England desperately require their batsmen (who are outstanding players) to make some runs here in Abu Dhabi.

The other big issue is where the wickets will come from. Abu Dhabi has been a graveyard for bowlers. Both spin bowlers and pace bowlers have averaged just over 49 in the 2 tests there. And they haven't been bad bowlers. Steyn 4/138, Herath 3/134, Sami 0/129. It is not a bowlers friend.

The bowlers that have been the most effective here have generally been swing bowlers, so there is some light there for England, but it is a dim glow.

There are a couple of things to look for:

1. Often players perform better in milestone matches. Cook and Strauss are playing their 100th innings together as an opening partnership. They are currently the 4th most prolific partnership, roughly 300 behind Atapatu and Jayasuria, who opened up 118 times. This could be time for a big one from these two.

2. Umar Gul and bad balls getting wickets. Gull managed to pick up 3 wickets off long hops in the 2nd innings. Often bowlers that have a batsman under pressure can bowl a bad delivery and pick up a wicket with it. It will be interesting to see if his wickets are from good deliveries or from bad deliveries after a period of pressure.

3. How will Panesar go? He looked more dangerous than Swann in the warm up matches, and Swann was the pick of the English bowlers in Dubai. This could be Monty's chance to take back his mantle.

4. Jonathan Trott. He will probably be asked to do a job with the ball as well as the bat in this match. His ability to create pressure with the ball may be crucial for England.

Betting tips.

I would not recommend betting on too many options on this match. Much too unpredictable. The only one that I would recommend is going under on Strauss if he faces the first ball, and overs if he doesn't. (see last match's preview)

Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Mini-session analysis for 4th Test Aus Ind 11/12

Here is the final mini-session analysis for the 4th test between Australia and India at Adelaide.

A mini-session is (normally) half a session, either between the start of the session and the drinks break or the drinks break and the end of the session. Occasionally a long session will have 3 mini-sessions where it will be broken up with 2 drinks breaks.

SessionScoreWinner
1-1aAustralia 46/2 off 16India
1-1bAustralia 52/1 off 13Australia
1-2aAustralia 56/0 off 14Australia
1-2bAustralia 60/0 off 15Australia
1-3aAustralia 73/0 off 15Australia
1-3bAustralia 48/0 off 17Australia
2-1aAustralia 35/0 off 14Australia
2-1bAustralia 69/0 off 16Australia
2-2aAustralia 51/2 off 14India
2-2bAustralia 49/2 off 16India
2-3aAustralia 36/0 off 7Australia
India 48/2 off 11
2-3bIndia 13/0 off 10Australia
3-1aIndia 26/2 off 12.5Australia
3-1bIndia 35/1 off 17.1Australia
3-2aIndia 49/0 off 15India
3-2bIndia 54/1 off 18.4India
3-3aIndia 47/4 off 10.3Australia
3-3bAustralia 50/3 off 14India
4-1aAustralia 61/1 off 14.2Australia
4-1bAustralia 43/1 off 14.4Australia
4-2aAustralia 13/0 off 3India
India 49/1 off 12
4-2bIndia 43/1 off 12India
4-3aIndia 29/2 off 15Australia
4-3bIndia 45/2 off 17Australia
5-1aIndia 35/4 off 13.4Australia


Australia win the match, and the count 17-8

To a large degree India will be glad to see the back of this series. They have been comprehensively outplayed by Australia. Kohli had been the big positive for this tour for India. He has certainly come of age as a test batsman in this series.

Preview - Aus Ind 4th Test Adelaide 11/12

While the series is dead, this match is potentially the most interesting.

Australia are wanting to end this series on a high note. India need redemption.

There is going to be a spotlight on both wicket keepers. Haddin desperately needs a good match. At the moment it is hard to see how he is keeping his spot. He doesn't look to be in as good form with the gloves as some of the keepers in the BBL, (although there is a big difference between test and domestic t20) and also seems to be batting out of a hole.

Saha has sat on the sidelines for about 38 years (it must feel like) watching Dhoni. Now he gets his chance. He is in good form with the bat, averaging 117 in his last 4 first class matches, and that might prove to be a welcome boost for India.

The transition from Dhoni's captaincy to Sehwag's will be interesting. Adelaide is a challenging place to captain a team, with very long straight boundaries and short square ones. Sehwag's last attempt on a pitch like this was vs NZ at McLean Park in Napier. New Zealand scored 619/9d at 4 an over after being 23/3. If he gets an opening like that against Australia he needs to capitalise on it, although that is a lot easier to say from my chair than his.

History would say that Adelaide offers the best chance for India. It is a batsman's ground, with both spinners and quick bowlers averaging over 40 there in the last 10 years. It is one of 14 grounds in the world to hold that distinction. Over the last 5 years India has played 13 matches at grounds in this category. They have won 4, lost 1 and drawn 8. Australia has played 8, won 1, lost 2 and drawn 5. In the last 3 games on these surfaces between the two countries, India have won 1, and 2 have been draws.

Likewise Austraia have had mixed results at Adelaide recently. The last 4 matches have seen a win and a loss, both by an innings and 2 draws. One of the draws was against India.

Things to watch for:

1. How does Saha go? It's one thing hitting unbeaten hundreds in Indian domestic cricket. Doing it in Australia is another issue.

2. How will VVS Laxman do? This pitch is likely to suit him more than the others, but he has been in such poor form it would not be surprising if he had another poor game.

3. Shaun Marsh. In all likely-hood this match is looking like a very important one for Marsh's career. He has underperformed badly so far this series, and while he has shown us that he is capable of succeeding, he needs to prove that he is more than another Marcus North by putting together a good innings (or 2) here.

4. India's fielding and running. Australia have scored 226 more runs than India in this series. However they have only scored 34 more runs in boundaries. Australia have run better, and been better at preventing India running. Australia's activity rate is roughly 0.34 while India are at about 0.25. Part of this is because Australia have been bowling more of a 5th/6th stump line, and slightly forward of a good length as their standard delivery, where as India have bowled a slightly shorter 4th stump as their standard delivery. The fuller wider bowling makes it harder to work singles, but easier to hit boundaries. However India still have had a number of opportunities to score more by running, and have let too many easy runs in through sloppy fielding. Will the change to Sehwag make a difference? I personally doubt it.

5. Forget Tendulkar's hundred, can anyone from India make one? So far India's top scores in this series is 83. They have had the same number of batsmen get to 50 as Australia, but 4 of the Australians managed to convert to 100's. Over the last 10 years Indian batsmen have scored one away century for every 17 innings. So far this test they have had 66 innings without one. Traditionally the probability of an Indian batsman getting to 100 once they had got to 50 away from home is about 30%. So we would have expected 4 centurys given that they had been past fifty 14 times. Surely that trend will break at the benign Adelaide Oval.

Betting tips.

The last couple of matches have not been good. My overall success rate has dropped from about 1.4 (40c profit from every dollar bet) to about 1.05, so hopefully I can make it up to you all this time round.

1. Kohli top Indian batsman 1st innings - $6.50 - He looks like he is coming into form. I'd pick this as about a 25% probability, which makes these good odds.

2. Harris top Australia bowler 1st innings - $3.50 - Lillee said that Adelaide suited bowlers who bowled good cutters. Harris seemed to do this in the bits of the last match that I watched. He also bowled much better than his figures indicated.

3. Tendulkar 86 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I genuinely think he will get his hundred here.

4. Saha 71 and over - player performance - $1.83 - I'd expect him to take at least 2 catches which is 20 points. Then 51 runs in 2 innings seems getable.

5. Siddle 110 and over - player performance - $1.83 - It wouldn't be a massive surprise if he picked up 2 wickets in one innings and 3 in the other, and chipped in with 20 with the bat.

Monday, 23 January 2012

Big Occasion Bates

Yesterday the (mighty) Auckland Aces were playing in their third consecutive HRV Cup final. Auckland won convincingly. During the time between their first and third final they have also played Pakistan in a tour T20 match and played 2 Champions League matches.

Throughout these 6 big occasion matches one player has really been extraordinary: left arm quick bowler Michael Bates.

Here are his results:
MatchOppositionResultFigures
2009/10 HRV Cup finalCentral DistrictsLoss4-0-61-3
Tour matchPakistanWin3-0-11-4
2010/11 HRV Cup FinalCentral DistrictsWin4-1-18-4
2011 Champions League T20Kolkata Knight RidersLoss4-0-13-1
2011 Champions League T20SomersetLoss4-1-13-2
2011/12 HRV Cup FinalCanterburyWin3-0-18-3
Overall 22-2-134-17

This gives him an average of 7.88, an economy rate of 6.09 and a strike rate of 7.64. If we just look at the last 2 years, removing the first final at the postage stamp sized Pukekura Park, his figures become 18-2-73-14. That is a breath-takingly low economy rate of 4.06, average of 5.2 and strike rate of 7.71.

How good are those numbers? Here are some comparisons: The best averaging bowler in the world is Krishmar Santoki from Jamaica who averages 8.56; the best economy rate is Samuel Badree from Trinidad and Tobago who's economy rate is 4.43; the best strike rate is also Santoki at 9.3. Bates's figures in the last 5 finals are better than all of these. Now it is true that 5 matches is a small sample size, but the results are still outstanding.

Given these numbers it is staggering that he hasn't been picked up by an overseas team of some variety. He hasn't even been picked for New Zealand A.

Now sometimes a bowler can get good figures by getting bad batsmen out. Not the case with Bates, here is the list of his dismissals:
Ross Taylor*
Kieran Noema-Barnett
Jacob Oram*
Mohammad Hafeez*
Shahid Afridi*
Ahmed Shezad*
Wahab Riaz
Peter Ingram*
Jamie How*
Ian Blackwell*
Doug Bracewell
Manvinder Bisla
Peter Trego
Nick Compton
Rob Nichol*
Andrew Ellis
Reece Young*
* - has batted in the top 6 in International Cricket

In his other T20 matches, when the stage is not so big, he has preformed reasonably well, but not nearly as well as he has on the big stage. Here are his stats excluding these matches: 86.5-1-755-25 Average 30.2, Economy Rate 8.73, Strike Rate 20.76.

Teams need consistent performers. But they also need players that can step up on the big occasions. So far Michael Bates has proved that he can do just that.