Here's the latest outputs from the simulation.
England's loss to Sri Lanka opened the door somewhat, but we can still be fairly confident in who the semi-finalists are.
England's ranking has gone down, after two losses to fairly ordinary sides.
It's looking like 10 points will be the magic number. Roughly a 10% chance that we'll rely on a tie-breaker.
The average points expected certainly favour England on that count to be in fourth
Accordingly, they have a much higher chance of making it through.
What the likely match ups are. (Teams in alphabetical order, rather than placings)
England are still firm favourites by my model. Home advantage is massive.
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