First, the probability of different results based on first innings scores. This suggests that a score of 300 is roughly the point where a team is more likely to win than lose, while the 50% winning score is roughly 370.

The next question is how important is the toss.

I've put together this little graph to show that:

Pakistan tend to win when they win the toss, but other teams win as much as they lose if they win the toss.

Interestingly, there isn't enough statistical evidence here to say that the toss actually makes a difference to the result. If it made no difference whatsoever, you would expect to see a result as skewed or more skewed to winning the toss about 12% of the time.

Next I looked at grounds that had similar characteristics over the past 5 years:

Here's where DSC sits in:

Kingstown

Kanpur

Chittagong (ZAC)

Bulawayo (QSC)

Harare

Abu Dhabi

Delhi

Dunedin (University)

Sharjah

Looking at the results of the players from this match in similar grounds, and weighting them by their similarity to Dubai, here are some key players from each side:

Player | Team | Batting |

Imam-ul-Haq | PAK | 43.41 |

Mohammad Hafeez | PAK | 33.02 |

Azhar Ali | PAK | 65.31 |

Haris Sohail | PAK | 55.39 |

Asad Shafiq | PAK | 55.42 |

Babar Azam | PAK | 26.76 |

Sarfraz Ahmed | PAK | 52.96 |

Bilal Asif | PAK | 6.33 |

JA Raval | NZ | 33.88 |

TWM Latham | NZ | 67.06 |

KS Williamson | NZ | 37.03 |

LRPL Taylor | NZ | 66.36 |

HM Nicholls | NZ | 24.68 |

BJ Watling | NZ | 30.28 |

C de Grandhomme | NZ | 1.50 |

IS Sodhi | NZ | 74.98 |

Then the equivalent for the bowlers:

Player | Team | Bowling |

Mohammad Abbas | PAK | 18.78 |

Hasan Ali | PAK | 19.20 |

Bilal Asif | PAK | 20.74 |

Yasir Shah | PAK | 27.24 |

Haris Sohail | PAK | 17.21 |

TA Boult | NZ | 22.86 |

C de Grandhomme | NZ | 22.50 |

N Wagner | NZ | 26.31 |

AY Patel | NZ | 17.57 |

IS Sodhi | NZ | 60.81 |

That suggests that this might not be the best test for the leggies, with the ball tending to keep a bit low at Dubai. Both Sodhi and Yasir Shah have the highest weighted averages in their teams.

The relatively high batting averages and low bowling averages for both sides in these conditions suggests that this could be a very difficult match to predict. Both teams are capable of putting together big partnerships and rapid collapses/quick bags of wickets.

It's shaping as another intriguing test.

The relatively high batting averages and low bowling averages for both sides in these conditions suggests that this could be a very difficult match to predict. Both teams are capable of putting together big partnerships and rapid collapses/quick bags of wickets.

It's shaping as another intriguing test.

Whats your take on current tour of India to NZ?

ReplyDeleteIndia toppled New Zealanders in ODI series.

DeleteSorry, I hadn't seen these comments. I wrote about that series for Firstpost. You can see my articles here: https://www.firstpost.com/author/michael-wagner/page/1

DeleteIS India will win ICC Cricket world cup 2019?

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